HAITI ELECTIONS IMPASSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 000321

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
DRL
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA)
TREASURY FOR JEFFREY LEVINE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016
TAGS: KDEM PREL HA
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS IMPASSE

REF: PAP 317

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Douglas M. Griffiths for Reasons
: 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Ninety-two percent of the vote tally
sheets (Proces Verbaux or PVs) had been recorded before the
CEP ordered counting stopped February 14. Based on internal
projections, MINUSTAH officials do not believe that the
uncounted PVs would push Rene Preval over the fifty percent
mark needed to win the elections. Second place finisher
Leslie Manigat urged that decisions be based on the electoral
law and not on protests or political pressure. Popular
unrest flared again in Port-au-Prince the evening of February
14 after local TV showed ballots found in a dump. MINUSTAH
officials believe the ballots were deliberately planted in an
effort to discredit the elections. Poloff is currently at
the voter tabulation center examining the ballots with
Minustah officials. The Haitian government has formed a
Commission to examine the counting process. The Commission
is composed of representatives of the government, the
electoral commission and Preval's E'Espwa party. Any
political compromise needs the endorsement of significant
political actors, including second place finisher Manigat and
the G-184. OAS SecGen Insulza, scheduled to arrive the
afternoon of February 15, should push for an inclusive,
institutional solution to the impasse. End Summary.

Preval at 48.67 Percent with 92 Percent Counted
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2. (U) According to MINUSTAH officials, 92 percent of the
Proces Verbaux (PV) had already been entered into the
tabulation database, when the CEP ordered counting stopped
February 14. Of the 740 PVs that remain, MINUSTAH believes
276 are irrecoverable, leaving 464, which are either already
at the Vote Tabulation Center (VTC) or lost somewhere in
transit to the VTC. Based on their own internal projections,
MINUSTAH officials assisting at the counting center believe
that the PVs not yet entered into the database will not push
Preval over 50 percent of the vote. Currently, Preval has
48.67 percent of the vote while runner up Leslie Manigat has
11.83 percent.

Preval: Blank Ballots Skewed Results
--------------


3. (U) Presidential hopeful Rene Preval said February 14
(reftel) that his party (L,Espwa) would contest results if
he does not finish with more than 50 percent of the vote. He
also said his supporters would also contest. Preval claimed
that an inordinate number of the ballots cast were blank, and
concluded that they were used to force him into a second
round. He proposed two possible methods to deal with the
blank ballots: 1) the CEP assume three percent of ballots
were blank nationwide and recalculate the vote; or that 2)
the CEP open ballot boxes with the most blank votes and
recount the ballots.

Manigat Urges Respect for Law and Process
--------------


4. (SBU) Second place finisher Leslie Manigat urged in a
February 14 meeting with members of the Interim Government of
Haiti (IGOH),Provisional Electoral Council (CEP),and
international community that elections decisions be based on
the electoral law and not on protests or political pressure.
He said that negotiations would be inevitable after the
second round, but stressed that violence cannot be allowed to
dictate the winner of the election. He argued that Preval
must accept the first round results, so that the process can
move forward. The missing PVs, he said, would only be

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important if they would affect the final results.

Commission to Investigate Voting and Count
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5. (U) The interim government has announced the formation
of a commission to investigate the results of the election.
The commission consists of two members of the CEP, Pierre
Richard Duchemin and Rosemond Pradel, two members of the
IGOH, Minister of the Interior Magloire and Presidential
Chief of Staff Brunache, and two unnamed members of L'Espwa.


6. (C) CEP member Pierre Richard Duchemin told PolOff
February 15 he believes the commission will find a political
solution to the problem, intimating that the commission would
find a way to declare Preval the winner. He also said he had
not heard anything about the mandate of the commission and
that the commission has not yet had any meetings. Duchemin
said he hoped the commission would get to the bottom of the
blank ballot question and expressed concern that the number
of blank ballots cast was high compared to elections in other
countries.

Multiple Possible Sources for Found Burned Ballots
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Haitian and international press reported that
burned ballots, many of which were marked with votes for
Preval, were discovered in a garbage dump near Cite Soleil on
the outskirts of Port-au-Prince. MINUSTAH officials believe
the ballots were deliberately planted in an effort to
discredit the elections. They site three possible sources
for the ballots: 1) they may have come from voting centers
that were burned in the Departments of the Grande Anse and
North; 2) a voting center in Delmas 2 (near Bel-Air) where
some ballots had disappeared when UNPOL retrieved the ballots
after elections; 3) two boxes of ballots destined for Isle La
Gonave disappeared from the MINUSTAH base at the
Port-au-Prince airport on the day before elections. Poloff
is currently at the vote tabulation center examining the
ballots with Minustah officials.


8. (C) Comment: We are wary of a political solution that
this limited membership commission might propose. CEP
Director General Jacques Bernard told us February 12 that
Prime Minister Latortue and Interior Minister Magloire had
suggested the CEP find a way to declare Preval the winner.
Bernard refused. A presidential decree altering the
electoral law to justify a Preval victory in the first round,
would undermine the legitimacy of the electoral process. The
CEP should resume counting, and candidates should submit
their challenges through the established procedures. We will
continue to work with Haitian contacts and our partners in
the international community to get the political actors to
work together to find a solution to this impasse. End
Comment.
CARNEY