HAITIANS PONDER A PREVAL PRESIDENCY

UNCLAS PORT AU PRINCE 000304

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
DRL
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA)
TREASURY FOR MAUREEN WAFER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC HA
SUBJECT: HAITIANS PONDER A PREVAL PRESIDENCY


1. (SBU) Summary: With the Provisional Electoral Council
(CEP) having announced preliminary results on the evening of
February 9 showing that Rene Preval had a considerable lead,
Haitians across the political spectrum are concluding that
Rene Preval has won the presidency and coming to grips with
that eventuality. Calls for acceptance of the results and
for dialogue and national reconciliation are coming from
international and national sectors alike. While waiting
expectantly for official results, Haitians have maintained a
calm and satisfied attitude, proud of the large turnout and
the peaceful conclusion of the first round. The national
media has played a large role in contributing to this
celebratory atmosphere, continuing to focus on congratulatory
messages to the Haitian people from home and abroad. The
growing list of endorsements of the process from observer
groups has added to the already solid conclusion formed on
February 8 that the outcome of the elections would be
credible. Only Charles Henry Baker, who appears to be
running closely behind Leslie Manigat for the second spot,
has publicly raised the issue of disputes: Baker told
Polcouns on February 9 that he would contest irregular voting
lists, but stated that he would only challenge the result
through legal channels. As normally happens in Haiti,
those opposed to Preval are circulating worrying rumors about
pro-Preval celebrations in the event of a first round
victory, or protests in the event of a second round runoff.
Post believes that MINUSTAH is well-able to contain any
potentially violent reaction to the election results, as it
proved on election day. End Summary.

Results so far
--------------

2. (U) The CEP announced partial results with approximately
15 percent of the returns tabulated. The leading
presidential candidates by those Departments reporting were:

West-31 percent reporting. (Port-au-Prince and environs)
Preval 68 percent
Manigat 14 percent
Chavanne Jeune 5 percent
Baker 5 percent

Center-1 percent reporting. (Hinche)
Baker 29 percent
Preval 27 percent
Manigat 11 percent

Southeast-2 percent reporting. (Jacmel)
Preval 47 percent
Jeune 18 percent
Baker 9 percent
Manigat 8 percent

South-7 percent reporting. (Les Cayes)
Preval 35 percent
Jeune 27 percent
Manigat 13 percent
Baker 6 percent

Artibonite-6 percent reporting. (Gonaives)
Preval 50 percent
Manigat 25 percent
Luc Mesidieu 9 percent
Baker 5 percent

A CEP press conference is scheduled for 1830 hours this
evening, February 10, to provide further partial results.
The CEP has announced that approximately 43 percent of the
returns will be provided at that time.

The Sun Shines on Haiti
--------------

3. (SBU) Despite some frustration with the slowness of the
vote tabulation, Haitians have maintained the calm and
celebratory attitude that marked the closing of the polls on
February 7. Haitians continue to exhibit national pride over
the large turnout, which MINUSTAH officials estimate is over
60%, and the exemplary behavior of their countrymen despite
the initial disorganization of the electoral process. UN
Secretary General Kofi Annan and OAS Secretary General

SIPDIS
Insulza were among the first international leaders to commend
Haiti on the successful election. Secretary of State Rice's
February 9 congratulatory statement has received wide and
repeated media coverage.


4. (U) IFES, Elections Canada-led International Mission for
Monitoring Haitian Elections (MIEEH),and the EU Observation
Mission have made preliminary statements commenting on the
massive voter turnout, the enthusiasm of voters, and the
transparency of the process. Each mission has noted various
technical deficiencies but generally concluded that the
problems and errors committed do not undermine the
credibility of the process and can be corrected prior to the
second round.


5. (SBU) The Haitian National Council for Election
Observation (CNO) dispatched 8000-plus observers throughout
the country on election day. CNO chief Leopold Berlanger's
initial public comments were positive noting the transparency
of the process and the lack of political violence. He
praised his fellow Haitians for their civic-mindedness and
patriotism for the unprecedented election day numbers. The
CNO will present the CEP with formal recommendations for
improving the process. The NDI-sponsored National
Observation Network (RON) also fielded observers, political
party "mandataires," throughout Haiti. RON is conducting a
"slow count" of the results. The quantitative date gathered
is being evaluated by international elections experts to
ensure a scientifically-based sample size. NDI officials
told poloff that the slow count results will be within a 2
percent margin of error. The RON board will present this
final quantitative data to the CEP in a sealed envelope as a
check on the tabulation process in the event the tabulation
is challenged. RON is also preparing a qualitative report
which is expected to generally reflect the same deficiencies
and positive aspects mentioned by the other observers
missions.

Baker Not Conceding
--------------

6. (SBU) After venting about political fraud and outlining
his determination to continue fighting, Charles Henri Baker
told polcouns he would work to help his country build
institutions "no mater what the result" of the election.
Baker conceded that the high turnout and peaceful atmosphere
will contribute to the ultimate result. He also did not
disagree that the result will be the will of the people.

Comment
--------------

7. (SBU) Tabulation delays are beginning to cause quiet
grumbling that could begin to mar the celebratory atmosphere.
The challenge for the post-first round period will be to
focus on the legislative races (30 Senators and 99 Deputies)
around the country. The Parliament will need to be
strengthened as an institution itself and through political
party development and promotion of a responsible opposition.
The international community shall continue to speak with one
voice to encourage acceptance of the election results and
nudge Haitian politicians and leaders to work together toward
national unity. End comment.


CARNEY