WILL HAITI HOLD CREDIBLE ELECTIONS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT AU PRINCE 000259

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2011
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID HA
SUBJECT: WILL HAITI HOLD CREDIBLE ELECTIONS?

REF: A. PORT-AU-PRINCE 217


B. PORT-AU-PRINCE 250

C. PORT-AU-PRINCE 235

D. PORT-AU-PRINCE 222

E. PORT-AU-PRINCE 129

F. PORT-AU-PRINCE 128

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Douglas M. Griffiths
for reason 1.(4) b.


1. (C) Summary: Haitian and international election
authorities face uncertainties as they prepare to conduct the
first round of Haiti's elections on February 7. The most
serious of these are the competence and performance of poll
workers, particularly at rural and isolated voting centers,
and the ability of the security forces to respond to
disruptive elements without provoking further disorder or
causing panic. Nevertheless, and taking into account the
probability of some disorder on election day, several factors
are at work that make it more likely that the Haitian people
will accept the credibility of these elections and move on to
the second round scheduled for March 19. Most importantly,
the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) and MINUSTAH have
ensured a transparent voting and tabulation process.
Additionally, Haiti's runoff system is likely to produce a
diffuse range of parliamentary candidates across the
political spectrum who have a stake in accepting the first
round results. In the presidential race, the emergence of
Rene Preval as the front runner has distilled the campaign
into a referendum on his return to power. If, as polls
suggest, Preval moves on to the second round against a
candidate from one of the nine "Entente" parties opposed to
him, the majority of Haitians will likely accept that they
have a candidate in the race who represents their view on the
overriding issue -- a second Preval term -- and thus add to
those with a stake in the first round result. An outright
victory for Preval in the first round could dramatically
alter that dynamic and mobilize his opponents to contest the
result. However, if domestic and international observers are
quickly able to attest that voting on February 7 was free and
fair, the roughly four-day period between the end of polling
and the announcement of official results will give Haitian
and international leaders the opportunity to solidify a
consensus that first round results were credible and must be
accepted. As challenging as the successful conclusion of the
first round of voting will be, the completion of the second
round is likely to be equally challenging, requiring our
continued focus and leadership of Haiti's international
partners. End Summary.

Logistics and Security a Race to the Finish
--------------


2. (SBU) As reported in ref C, the CEP and MINUSTAH will
continue to work up to the last minute to resolve
interconnected issues relating to the transparency of the
process, voting center organization, and the maintenance of a
positive security climate. As reported in ref A, MINUSTAH
and the CEP have made arrangements that should ensure
transparency and credibility for the mechanics of the voting
process, ballot security, and results tabulation
unprecedented for a Haitian election. Though political
parties and other critics have focused attention on the
supposedly insufficient numbers of voting centers throughout
the country, ultimately the limited number of voting centers
and the concentration of polling stations into "mega-centers"
in the major population centers should work to elections
organizers' advantage. MINUSTAH and the CEP will concentrate
their logistical and security forces at voting centers that
serve the overwhelming majority of voters and thus establish
an atmosphere of order and calm at the flashpoints,
particularly the poorer neighborhoods of Port-au-Prince, from
which Haitians will draw conclusions about order and security
as election day goes on. There will likely be much more
potential for disorder at isolated rural voting centers, and
we expect at least some incidents to take place at these
sites. MINUSTAH's and the CEP's challenge will be to
dispatch resources they have assigned to broader area
security to these trouble spots and contain these incidents
before they lead to widespread disorder or seriously affect
voter participation. The candidates, and to a lesser extent
the political parties, seemingly have a vested stake in the
success of the process. However, the polarized nature of
Haitian society is the chief underlying vulnerability.

Lots of Winners
--------------


3. (SBU) As reported in Ref D, we expect very few senatorial
seats to be settled in the first round, meaning that as many
as 180 candidates from a large number of the 45 registered
parties will emerge to contest the second round. Parties may
contest individual results in parliamentary races, especially
in the senate races where small numbers of votes could
separate the "winning" 5th and 6th place candidates from the
7th place finisher. Taken nationally, however, we expect the
senate races to produce a large contingent of politically
diverse candidates who will actively defend the first round
result. We are less certain of the outcomes of the deputy
races, where there will be more first round winners. Still
it appears that winners will represent an array of political
parties, and thus reinforce the motivation of the major
parties to accept the first round results.

One Big Winner?
--------------


4. (C) The presidential race has boiled down to one
overriding issue, Rene Preval's return to power. We have
very little credible polling on which to base a judgment, but
virtually no polling, credible or otherwise, indicates Preval
will win the requisite 50% plus 1 vote to win a first round
victory outright. A challenger to Preval will almost
unquestionably come from among the nine parties of the
"Entente," who pledged to support whichever candidate among
them that goes through to the second round. Independent
Charles Henri Baker and former president Leslie Manigat
appear the strongest of these nine candidates. Whether or
not a second round is necessary, there are those among the
nine who appear willing to contest the result, most notably
Evans Paul and Paul Denis. Charles Henri Baker, who many
expect to finish second behind Preval, has stated to polcouns
directly that he expects to come in first, and any other
result will be evidence of foul play or fraud. Whatever the
results of the first round, the CEP does not expect to
announce official results before Friday, February 10, or
possibly February 11. Assuming an acceptable level of order
and voter participation, the period between the close of
polling and the CEP's announcements of results should give
domestic and international elections observers the
opportunity to clearly endorse the election process, and give
Haitian and international leaders the time to build a
consensus in order to minimize the impact of challengers or
spoilers.


5. (C) Campaign activity and voter interest seems to be
peaking (ref B). As the result of a mammoth effort, the OAS
will have distributed nearly 95% of voter id cards to the
3.5-plus million registered voters. While interest in
obtaining ID cards does not completely reflect interest in
voting, the efforts Haitians displayed to collect their cards
on time and inform themselves regarding voting arrangements
indicates most Haitians want to vote. Barring serious
incidents that mar the entire electoral process, we expect
voter turnout of at least 50 percent, and possible
significantly better.

CEP on Board
--------------


6. (C) Members of the Provisional Electoral Council seem to
have pulled together as a group in recent days, though
infighting continues. As a whole, the group seems to have
concluded that their individual reputations rest on the
collective performance of the CEP. Pierre Richard Duchemin,
who played a critical role during the registration process
but later often interferred with CEP Director Jacques
Bernard, publicly called this week for the Haitian people to
participate in the electoral proces and make the best of the
situation, admitting a recognition that the electoral process
has its flaws but it is time to move forward. Patrick
Fequiere, who has lain the groundwork for contesting the
election since his appointment to the CEP, continues to be a
disruptive member of the committee. However, his persistent
criticisms have gained less and less traction as his
reputation as a spoiler has grown.


7. (C) Comment. The heavy lifting will not end with the
successful conclusion of the first round. If the
presidential race produces Preval and an opposition
candidate, as we hope and expect, the polarization of the
Haitian electorate will create at least the potential for
serious tension through the second round. MINUSTAH and the
CEP will have the opportunity to fine tune their planning and
an easier logistical task for the second round, but will need
an infusion of funds and a continued united front among
Haiti's international partners to carry the electoral process
to its conclusion.

CARNEY