HAITI'S LOCAL ELECTIONS ON TRACK FOR DECEMBER 3

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002277

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SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM HA
SUBJECT: HAITI'S LOCAL ELECTIONS ON TRACK FOR DECEMBER 3

REF: A. PORT AU PRINCE 2273

B. PORT AU PRINCE 2171

C. PORT AU PRINCE 2105

PORT AU PR 00002277 001.2 OF 002



1. Summary: The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) and
representatives of the UN mission to Haiti (Minustah)
reported that elections preparations are in the final stages,
with no unscheduled loose ends remaining. In preparation for
post-electoral disputes, Director General of the CEP Jacques
Bernard has dispatched 200 lawyers to the 140 communal
electoral bureaus in order to absorb and process
post-electoral complaints. Minustah and CEP representatives
admitted there is potential for unrest among electoral
workers who were not re-hired for the third round, but
security plans are in place and those involved have
confidence in the system that worked so well during rounds
one and two. Both the Prime Minister and Bernard have
publicly assured voters that everything is prepared for their
December 3 participation. Following the elections, the GoH
will need to determine both budgets and salaries for the new
hires, as well as review the entire elections structure,
which could cost as much as USD 183 million over the next
five years, according to an estimate by representatives of
the Organization of American States (OAS) in Haiti. End
summary.


2. CEP and Minustah have finalized all preparations for
Haiti's local elections on December 3, according to reports
presented at the final elections meeting November 24. The CEP
announced that the 822 voting centers (which house the 9231
voting bureaus) are complete, with the exception of three in
Martissant which will be moved to the outer boundaries of the
southern neighborhood/slum of Port-au-Prince. The CEP has
completed electoral lists (which have not changed since the
first round in February of this year),ballots, tally sheets,
and training of poll workers. The materials which have not
already arrived at the voting centers, including sensitive
and non-sensitive materials, will arrive at their final
destination this week. Bernard has issued an emergency
response system to respond to last minute issues that arise
nation-wide during this final week before elections.

Post Electoral Contestations
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3. CEP Director General Jacques Bernard is concerned about
the potential for disputes following the elections. Claude
Parent (head of Elections Canada, which sent six electoral
experts to assist at the CEP) agrees. "Haitians are poor
losers," he said, "Bernard is right to expect that there will
be numerous disputes after the results are released." With
roughly 29,000 candidates and 9,000 positions to be filled,
the potential for post-electoral contestations is
significant. In preparation, Bernard hired 800 lawyers, 200
of whom will be based at the 140 communal electoral bureaus,
to both advise and allay those contesting the results.
Bernard estimates that the vote count will be complete five
to seven days after the elections. However, he expects that
contestations could keep the CEP from releasing final results
until mid-January.


4. Note: Felix Ortega and Gaston Aid of the Organization of
American States (OAS),told poloff that the number of
disputes that would make it to a national level and slow down
the vote count was quite small. They agreed that some voters
may dispute the results on a municipal (communal) level, but
did not think that the disputers would have the capacity --
including sufficient evidence and patience -- to take their
contestations to a national level. End note.

Minor Protests by Former Electoral Workers
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5. Minustah and the CEP reported a small number of protests
by former poll workers and electoral guards whom the CEP did
not re-hire for the third and final round of elections. In
order to meet budget demands, the CEP re-hired only 3000 of
4000 electoral guards and a number of poll-workers were not
re-hired for bureaucratic reasons. The two groups are prone
to protest and could possibly cause unrest on election day.

Security Plans Prepared

PORT AU PR 00002277 002.2 OF 002


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6. According to Neil Warriner, head of elections security at
Minustah, the security procedures will be very similar to the
one implemented during the past two rounds. Minustah has
identified 112 "hot zones," which will have an increased
number of security officers. As occurred during the first
and second round of elections, the security team in one area
can include any combination of the following: Minustah
troops, UN police officers, Haitian National Police (HNP)
officers and electoral security guards. Warriner reminded
poloff that the cooperation between the UN officers and HNP
has so far been strong on election days, even if this is not
the case on an everyday basis.

Bernard and PM Alexis in the News
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7. Prime Minister Jacques Edouard Alexis called on the
Haitians to go to the polls on December 3 and both Bernard
and Minustah have announced publicly that the December 3
elections are on schedule. As far as local campaigns, there
has been very little information in the local news, although
post notes campaign posters visible throughout
Port-au-Prince. The primary themes for the elections are
basic state responsibilities -- potable water, electricity,
clean streets, timely government paychecks -- and lack of
security, especially since the brutal murder of a young
university student (ref A). Despite an increase in
demonstrations in Port-au-Prince, only a few are
elections-related, with most calling for the departure of
Minustah and an increased GoH response to insecurity.

Post-Electoral Concerns
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8. Felix Ortega of OAS said that the entire structure put in
place by these local elections is very expensive: he
estimates it will cost USD 26 million for FY07, which
included only the cost of salaries and a very minimal
operations budget. (Note: The FY07 budget includes
approximately USD 20 million for decentralization, some of
which will go to local governance. However, this does not
include the budget for salaries of local officials. End
note.) Also, Ortega calculated that it will cost the GoH USD
183 million to hold all of the constitutionally required
elections -- including local, municipal, departmental and
national -- over the next five years, beginning with senate
elections next year and ending with the presidential election
in 2011.


9. Comment: After ten months, this elections season will
finally come to a close, and with relative success. The GoH
has fulfilled its promise to re-introduce local government
into Haiti's political scene. Its next challenge is to
support and fund local government, and to find a way to
continue to carry out this promise in years to come.
SANDERSON