HAITI ELECTIONS: CHALLENGES AND RISKS

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM HA
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS: CHALLENGES AND RISKS

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1. (SBU) Summary: Although no date has been set for
remaining national level elections or the municipal and local
contests, Prime Minister Alexis has informally suggested that
all be held together by the end of November. Both Electoral
Commission Director General Jacques Bernard and MINUSTAH
elections chief Gerardo Lechevallier report that it is
technically feasible to hold the elections by this date if/if
funding is secured from the international donors. However,
both also expressed concerns about the risks of violence and
insecurity surrounding local races. The personalization of
local contests increases the likelihood of conflict, they
say, while MINUSTAH will be spread thinly in view of the
number of local contests. A long-delayed first-round
legislative race in Grande Saline -- now scheduled for July
30 -- may provide a preview of the challenges to be faced in
other elections. The Grande Saline vote was cancelled twice
earlier this year due to risks of violence, but has been
rescheduled for July 30, despite continued tensions in the
district. The warnings by Bernard and Lechevallier are a
useful reminder that, despite the success of the presidential
and parliamentary elections, we must not be lulled into a
false confidence about prospects for local and municipal
races. End summary.


2. (U) ADCM and Poloff met with Provisional Electoral
Council (CEP) Director General (DG) Jacques Bernard July 11
and with MINUSTAH,s Electoral Assistance Section (EAS) chief
Gerardo Lechevallier July 13 to review status and plans for
completing the electoral process in Haiti. At the national
level, second round contests to decide the three senate seats
for the North East Department and ten deputies are pending.
In addition, in Grande Saline, Artibonite Department, the
electoral process was halted twice due to violent behavior on
the part of candidates, poll watchers, and voters
necessitating a third attempt at a first round contest,
announced last week by the CEP to be held July 30.
No date has been announced for the other remaining
parliamentary and municipal/local contests. However, Prime
Minister Alexis informally told the Donors Core Group in June
that the government wanted to see these remaining races
completed by November 30.

Grande Saline - Third Time Lucky?
--------------


3. (SBU) The CEP announced on July 18 that the
twice-canceled Grande Saline parliamentary election will be
held on July 30. The Grande Saline district was the scene of
violence during both the February 7 and April 21 election
days requiring that voting be halted and the voting centers
closed on both occasions. The February 7 disturbance
resulted in one death. DG Bernard attributes the volatile
situation existing in Grande Saline to political party and
familial in-fighting primarily between the Lespwa and Fusion
candidates. The state of affairs is further complicated by
apparently long-simmering family disputes that cut across
political party lines; three of the eight candidates are
related. Some candidates and political parties in the Grande
Saline district have complained that the voting centers were
not appropriately distributed on the previous election days.
The CEP, in a questionable decision according to Bernard,
agreed to relocate the voting centers for the upcoming
election. However, this has only resulted in further
tension, with one candidate,s supporters cutting off both
roads into and out of the small commune of Rossignol, where a
new polling station is to be added. Lechevallier told us
July 22 that all candidates had now agreed on the locations
of the polling centers. A CEP training session for party
pollwatchers is scheduled for July 26; if that goes smoothly,
Lechevallier is hopeful the elections will be peaceful.


4. (SBU) DG Bernard told Emboffs that he thinks it is a
mistake to go forward now with the Grande Saline election.
While technically it could be completed, the volatile
situation in the district argues for caution in proceeding.
He warned that MINUSTAH may find itself in an untenable
situation if it intervenes to stop violence in this fraught
local contest. There is widespreaad acceptance of MINUSTAH's
responsibility to shoot gang leaders, he said, but the optics
will change entirely if MINUSTAH is perceived as "blocking
innocent Haitians who only want to exercise their democratic
right to vote." In addition to these security concerns,

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Bernard noted that, since it is the rainy season and the
terrain of the district is predominantly marshy, there will
be additional logistical complications.

Future Races - Still Technical Challenges
--------------


5. (SBU) Bernard stated confidently that the remaining
parliamentary and municipal/local elections could be held
approximately 10-12 weeks from a firm announcement of a date
if the funding was available. Yet, both he and Lechevallier
admitted there would be significant technical challenges.
The municipal elections are for three mayors in each of 143
municipalities and the local/communal elections include over
10,000 offices for which at least 40,000 candidates are
expected. Because of the multitude and nature of offices
open, one of the major issues in preparing for the municipal
and local elections will be the ballot preparation and
printing. Lechevallier estimated that 70 days would be
required for the ballot printing, and that of course this
could begin only after all candidate registration was
complete. He noted a very high error rate with ballot
preparation in the much-simpler parliamentary contests.


6. (SBU) Another complication is that electoral boundaries
still have to be set between the larger Haitian cities and
adjacent communes whose borders have blurred over time.
Poor-record keeping and inconsistent address conventions mean
that many residents don't really know in which commune they
reside or should vote. Lechevalier was guardedly hopeful
that voter allocation to correct communes could be handled
using the existing database, without the need to re-register
any voters. Determination of the boundaries is also a
necessary precursor to determining candidate lists, since
candidates must be residents of the cities/communes where
they run.


7. (SBU) Lechavallier pointed out that it has now been more
than a year since citizens had an opportunity to register to
vote. The rolls are closed since, technically, elections are
still underway pending completion of the left-over
parliamentary contests. But the longer local and municipal
elections are delayed, the more pressure may build to re-open
registration. He estimates that 50,000 Haitians become
eligible to vote, in addition to those already eligible who
did not register before but may wish to now. On a related
note, Bernard is concerned about a possible move to shift
responsibility for issuance of voter registration cards from
the CEP to the Ministry of Justice, as mandated in a decree
issued by the interim government. He worries that turning
this function over to a line ministry risks politicizing the
registration process.


8. (SBU) Bernard and Lechevallier differed significantly
over the budget required to complete elections. Bernard's
budget is USD 13.5 million, which is less than the latest
MINUSTAH budget of USD 18 million. Among other issues,
Bernard faulted the MINUSTAH EAS budget for its inclusion of
support for "expensive" international staff -- some of whom
have no clear function during the prolonged wait for
elections -- and queried whether the MINUSTAH helicopter
flights to retrieve the process verbaux (official vote
tallies from each polling place) were necessary and, even if
so, why the elections budget would be charged for such
assistance. Lechevallier notes, on the other hand, that the
CEP budget includes only $2.5 million for CEP operating
expenses, which would cover only ten weeks of CEP overhead.
Neither the DG,s nor MINUSTAH,s budgets include funding for
institution and capacity building for the CEP. Bernard
acknowledged that CEP infrastructure costs about $1 million
per month, so the longer elections are delayed the higher the
price tag for keeping the CEP in place. (Note: AID's
Justice, Democracy, and Governance office understands that
the monthly cost is borne by the GOH, and should not figure
in MINUSTAH's calculations, but this needs to be clarified.
End note.)

All Politics is Local
--------------


9. (SBU) Both Bernard and Lechevallier warned about the risk
of violence associated with local and municipal elections.

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Bernard is worried about the security climate that may be
ushered in by the close and fierce local electoral contests,
such as he sees already in Grande Saline. Local contests are
more personalized. They involve visible access to community
resources. Lechevallier agreed that the municipal and local
elections present a potentially more emotional situation.
Due to this, these elections will have to be "scrupulously
above board." According to Lechevallier, this means that
adequate time and money must be invested to assure success.
Otherwise, in Haiti's 140 communes, "you're going to have 140
Grandes Salines." Lechevallier also stated flatly that
MINUSTAH simply doesn't have the forces to protect the
estimated 1600 polling centers that will be required for the
municipal and local contests.

Comment
--------------

10 (SBU) Comment: Much work remains, but if the GOH decides
to proceed with elections by November 30, it appears the CEP
could hold the remaining parliamentary races and probably the
local/municipal contests by then -- although it will be
tight. In view of the continued, unhelpful, differences in
the CEP and MINUSTAH electoral budgets, it may be useful to
have a USG-funded elections expert visit to assess the two
proposals and assist us and other donors to determine actual
needs. Both Bernard and Lechavallier offer a useful warning
that local and municipal elections are likely to prove more
complicated and perhaps prone to violence than the
national-level contests. We'll watch closely the
twice-cancelled parliamentary race in Grande Saline as a
possible preview of what's to come. End Comment.
SANDERSON