1. (U) This document is sensitive but unclassified - protect
accordingly.



2. (SBU) Summary. According to press reports, militant
Lavalas partisans have threatened to recommence armed
violence after July 9 if the Preval government does not
reinstate them to jobs in government ministries and public
utilities. The Minister of Parliamentary Relations has
stated that the government will not allow bandits and gang
members to force their return into government employment and
Preval has underscored that he would not countenance creation
of "unproductive employment." Preval and the Minister have
also discussed publicly a commission to study the issue. It
is unclear whether Lavalas supporters would have the ability
to follow through on their reported threat; recent Lavalas
demonstrations have fallen flat. End Summary.



3. (U) Local press reports that militant Lavalas supporters
claim they will launch &Operation Baghdad II8 if they are
not re-employed by the ministries and the government-owned
utilities, from whcich they were fired after Aristide's
departure. (Note: Operation Baghdad was a series of violent
attacks in which several HNP officers were beheaded and
burned and many civilians killed by militant Lavalas
supporters over several months, beginning in September 2004.
End Note.) On Monday, July 3, news reports indicated that
approximately one hundred former employees from various
ministries and public utilities gathered in Port-au-Prince to
make their demands and requested a response from President
Preval. They threatened to take up arms if their demands
continued to be ignored and gave a deadline to the
administration: the World Cup's end on July 9. (Note: There
have been numerous rumors in the city of possible unrest
associated with the end of the World Cup, but no firm threat
information is known to us.)



4. (U) Minister of Parliamentary Relations Joseph Jasmin
announced a possible commission to study the issue of
unjustified ousting of government employees but stated that
&jobs by force would not be tolerated.8 Preval said
publicly July 7 that he would not accede to any demands to
create "unproductive employment."



5. (SBU) Under the Aristide administration, thousands of
Lavalas supporters were employed in the ministries and
government owned utilities. In return, many of these former
employees suppressed opposition to the regime and prevented
anti-Aristide protests. According to the Embassy's FSN,
based on open sources, the group that is threatening violence
is approximately 300 in number and is reportedly well armed.



6. (SBU) This Lavalas threat occurs as other reports of
street violence are increasing. On July 5, the HNP reported
9 kidnappings, up from 2 or 3 a day in the recent past.
Reports of random gunfire have also increased since two weeks
ago when MINUSTAH troops and HNP started receiving harassing
fire in Cite Soleil and Cite Militaire areas. On the evening
of July 6 and the morning of July 7, gunfire was again
reported in several areas of Port-au-Prince with tire
barricades being confirmed between Delmas 31 and 75. These
developments prompted Preval to call an urgent meeting of his
security team July 7.



7. (SBU) Comment. The militant Lavalas partisans have timed
their warning to coincide with Preval's July 6 return to
Haiti from abroad. Their threat of violence is a reminder to
Preval and his government that there are those who are still
discontented and a signal that for some his "honeymoon" is
already over. A government commission is unlikely to appease
the group as they are more interested in lining their pockets
than accomplishing their announced goals of alleviating
poverty and finding sustainable employment. Lavalas'
capacity to follow through on any threat is questionable in
view of its recent inability to organize successful protests.
End Comment.
SANDERSON