FUNCINPEC'S POLITICAL PARALYSIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PHNOM PENH 001821

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL CB
SUBJECT: FUNCINPEC'S POLITICAL PARALYSIS

REF: PHNOM PENH 1396

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Margaret McKean; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. After nearly two months of continued
removals of FUNCINPEC officials and criticism of party leader
Prince Norodom Ranariddh by PM Hun Sen, Ranariddhhas sought
to stave off further problems by underscoring that FUNCINPEC
will remain a partner within the coalition government. The
Prnce, however, urged FUNCINPEC MPs to boycott an upcoming
National Assembly vote that would remove a number of
FUNCINPEC government officials and replace them with other
FUNCINPEC cadre loyal to FUNCINPEC Secretary General Nhek Bun
Chhay -- who is widely viewed as working within FUNCINPEC on
behalf of Hun Sen and the CPP. Ranariddh told the Ambassador
that he has no choice but to maintain the coalition
partnership with the CPP for the moment, but still hopes to
join with the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) against the CPP in
upcoming elections. Ranariddh will not remove Nhek Bun Chhay
or other FUNCINEPC officials who seemingly have switched
their loyalty to the CPP. Senior FUNCINPEC supporters of
Ranariddh recently removed from government positions
complained of anonymous security threats against them; some
officials worry that Ranariddh himself may be in danger if he
remains in the country. End Summary.

Ranariddh Comes and Goes; Finds Little Room to Maneuver
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2. (SBU) Following a raft of criticism from PM Hun Sen in
early 2006, Prince Norodom Ranariddh left Cambodia on March 5
and only returned five months later -- on August 17. At the
time, he told supporters on arrival at Siem Reap airport that
he would work to rebuild FUNCINPEC, which had been hurt by
defections and removals of FUNCINPEC government officials
during his long absence. On August 24, the Prince flew out
of the country again following withering attacks on him by
some of his own Ministers -- including Minister of Rural
Development Lu Laysreng, who suggested that Ranariddh should
step down as leader of FUNCINPEC given the party's declining
popularity in successive elections since 1993. Ranariddh
returned on September 9 but has spent most of his time
outside Phnom Penh, visiting grassroots supporters in a
number of provinces. He once again floated the idea of an
Alliance of Nationalists (reftel) in mid-September and began
talks with opposition leader Sam Rainsy through
intermediaries such as Prince Chakrapong. FUNCINPEC
officials in favor of the alliance believe that 2008
represents the last chance for pro-democracy advocates, as
the oil and gas revenues that are anticipated to begin in
2009 will almost assuredly serve to solidify the CPP's hold
on power for another generation.


3. (U) On September 14, Ranariddh visited Kampong Chhnang
province and openly pointed out the limitations of
FUNCINPEC's partnership with the CPP, mused about the
prospects of alliance with the SRP, and criticized the border
treaty between Cambodia and Vietnam. Ranariddh left the
country the next day. The PM struck back quickly, using his
own public appearance also in Kampong Chhnang province three
days later to warn the royalist party to "prepare their
coffins" following his hearing of the behind-the-scenes
discussions between the SRP and FUNCINPEC. The PM said that
the FUNCINPEC leader could not have it both ways -- with one
foot in the coalition government and the other foot in the
opposition's camp. In response, the PM removed four senior
FUNCINPEC government officials: Senior Minister Serei Kosal,
Undersecretary of State Chea Chanboribo of the Ministry of
Information, and Ministry of Justice Secretaries of State
Kassie Neou and Tuot Luch. A number of other dismissals and
re-appointments have been proposed. Ranariddh has asked
FUNCINPEC MPs to boycott any future National Assembly
sessions that would formally remove FUNCINPEC officials and
appoint replacements without his concurrence.


4. (SBU) Going one step further, Hun Sen called for Prince
Ranariddh to step down as the leader of FUNCINPEC, noting
that he would work with FUNCINPEC Secretary General Nhek Bun
Chhay. The PM also disparaged Prince Sisowath Thomico's
suggestion that the National Assembly be dissolved and power
to run the government be handed to former King Norodom
Sihanouk. Sihanouk responded that he would not accept the
offer, noting that the Prime Minister and the CPP would never
allow it. The PM accused the royalists of plotting a coup
and threatened to cut salaries at the Royal Palace.
Following the removals of Serei Kosal and the other three
FUNCINPEC officials, Kosal and Chea Chanboribo reported they
had received anonymous security threats; Ranariddh's advisor
and manager of Ta Prohm, the FUNCINPEC radio station, also
reported to the Embassy that he had received an anonymous
threat.

PHNOM PENH 00001821 002 OF 002




5. (C) Ranariddh returned to Cambodia on September 25 and
sought to shore up his position by clarifying that FUNCINPEC
would remain a loyal partner to the CPP in the government.
The FUNCINPEC leader requested a series of meetings with
diplomatic missions as a prelude to a media announcement that
the diplomatic corps had urged the Prince to remain in the
government for the sake of political stability. During his
September 27 meeting with the Ambassador, the Prince
maintained that he had little choice other than to maintain
the facade of a partnership with the CPP. He stressed that
Nhek Bun Chhay and several other senior FUNCINPEC officials
-- referred to by the Prince as "the Gang of Four" -- would
remain in the party for the time being, despite their lack of
loyalty to Ranariddh. The Prince explained that he would
begin working on a redrafting of the party regulations and
bylaws, thereby forming a legal basis for their future
removal. Ranariddh noted that he planned to maintain an
amicable working relationship with Hun Sen to preserve
FUNCINPEC as well as the monarchy but also would still seek
to form an understanding with Sam Rainsy concerning future
collaboration on a political alliance. He asked the US
Embassy to intercede with Rainsy and request a meeting on
Ranariddh's behalf.

New Permanent and Steering Committees Formed
--------------


6. (SBU) On September 28, Ranariddh held a closed door
meeting of senior FUNCINPEC officials at the Cambodiana
Hotel, and did not invite Nhek Bun Chhay. Over the weekend
of September 30-October 1, Ranariddh met with FUNCINPEC
representatives at Prince Norodom Sirivudh's residence, where
the group established a new permanent committee and steering
committee. Nhek Bun Chhay participated in the meeting, which
FUNCINPEC sources claim was geared towards seeking an end to
the internal party rift. The permanent committee has
Ranariddh as its leader, and comprises 18 members. Chhim
Seak Leng is the deputy who will make decisions on the
party's affairs when Ranariddh is absent. The steering
committee has been reduced to 59 members; Nhek Bun Chhay
remains as Secretary General but FUNCINPEC sources believe
the new structures will serve to minimize his
responsibilities within the party. Ranariddh left the
country for Malaysia on October 3, and is not anticipated to
return soon. A senior FUNCINPEC official within the MFA told
us that the party worries about Ranariddh's safety in
Cambodia in the current political climate; others express
similar security concerns for Ranariddh and other FUNCINPEC
officials.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Ranariddh does little to inspire the PM's
confidence, as the Prince continues to talk out of both sides
of his mouth. We have no intention of acting as an
intermediary for Ranariddh with Rainsy, but will maintain our
continued policy of supporting all the political parties and
their ability to operate freely and contest equally at
election time. Despite Ranariddh's claims that FUNCINPEC
remains a loyal partner in the coalition government with the
CPP, the coalition is in name only. The divisions and
discord within the party are apparent, and the PM continues
to openly intimidate Ranariddh. Many FUNCINPEC loyalists are
worried about the party's future, and the sense of drift is
palpable. It is unclear how Ranariddh can restore confidence
in the party among grassroots FUNCINPEC supporters when he
remains an absentee party leader, preferring to spend most of
his time in Malaysia with his mistress and young son. End
Comment.
CAMPBELL