NEW FRONTIER GOVERNOR ON THE WAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PESHAWAR 000255

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/23/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: NEW FRONTIER GOVERNOR ON THE WAY

REF: A) PESHAWAR 099; B) ISLAMABAD 5416

CLASSIFIED BY: Gautam Rana, Political Officer, U.S. Consulate ,
Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) Governor Khalil
ur-Rehman recently confided that Lt. General (retired) Ali
Mohammed Jan Orakzai will soon replace him. Embittered by his
premature removal, Rehman castigated his replacement, claiming
Orakzai was not aggressive enough in 2003-04 tribal operations,
is "too close" to the tribal people, and will not obtain
provincial government help to isolate growing Islamist militant
groups in the tribal zone. The GOP is preparing to staff key
Tribal Agency positions with serving or retired Pakistan Army
officers to back up the new Governor and to assure a
military-led unity of command, according to Rehman. END SUMMARY.

ANY ONE BUT ORAKZAI
--------------

2. (C) President Musharraf will shortly name Defense Production
Secretary (and former 11th Corps Commander) Lt. General

SIPDIS
(retired) Ali Mohammed Jan Orakzai as the new NWFP governor,
according to Rehman. Rehman confirmed his resignation had been
approved by President Musharraf in March (REF A),but the search
for his successor coupled with lengthy deliberations on a new
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) strategy delayed the
leaked news of his resignation (REF B). Serving only fourteen
months on the job, Rehman could not hide his keen disappointment
over his imminent departure and lost no time in condemning his
successor.


3. (C) Rehman claimed Orakzai is "the wrong person at the wrong
time" for his job:

--Orakzai led the 11th Corps in 2003-2004, as military
operations commenced against al Qa'ida and other Islamist
militants in South Waziristan. His experience is "a drawback."
Orakzai got "his clock cleaned" in several operations and
frequently bumped heads with then NWFP governor Iftikhar Hussein
Shah, also a retired Army general. Why bring back another
general carrying this baggage of "touchy disagreeableness?"
Rehman asked.

--Orakzai is an Orakzai tribal member. As such, he is widely
perceived to be too close to those particular tribal interests
and therefore biased in his judgments. More importantly,
Orakzai opposed large-scale military offensives in South
Waziristan during his Corps tenure, and is likely to resist them
now, even if battleground conditions require them, according to
Rehman.

--Orakzai is "not a political animal" and will not obtain
support from NWFP Chief Minister Durrani and his JUI-F party to
constitute tribal jirgas (councils) needed to drain local
support away from Islamist militant groups in Waziristan.
Rehman maintained he had such support, but his backing will walk
away at a critical juncture.

NEW FATA STRATEGY~
--------------

4. (C) Rehman said the new FATA strategy outlined by former
Chief Secretary Sahibzada Imtiaz (REF B) empowers the Governor
as the director of FATA policy, overseeing (1) political
negotiations, (2) economic development, and (3) military action.
Rehman stressed this strategy defines military action as "the
last resort," to be carefully targeted, rapidly executed, and
eventually paving the way for Frontier Corps and local levies to
replace regular Army units as security guarantors.

~DIRECTED BY ARMY OFFICERS
--------------

5. (C) While charting a course towards a smaller Army footprint
in the FATA, the new strategy relies heavily on retired and
serving Army officers to conduct FATA affairs. Rehman claimed
this decision was recently approved by President Musharraf and
reflects GOP thinking that the Army should be in the lead to
prevent policy disagreements emerging between civil and military
authorities and to assure a military-led unity of command.
Rehman suggested it may be "a long wait" before the Army shrinks

PESHAWAR 00000255 002 OF 002


its profile in the FATA because it is now assuming a much larger
presence. At the same time, Rehman claimed Army officers,
unlike their British Raj counterparts, do not possess the
experience required to promote badly needed political
negotiations with tribal elders or to prevent new policy
disputes from flaring up. Long-time serving civil bureaucrats
represent the best chance to carry out tribal negotiations,
Rehman opined.

COMMENT
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6. (C) Rumors of Rehman's departure have been rampant for
several weeks, chiefly due to his failure to drive forward FATA
development, to reinvigorate the PML-Q party in the NWFP, and to
shake off corruption allegations. Most observers here are now
betting that Orakzai's military background, personal
relationship with Musharraf, and tribal experience will allow
him to do a better job than his predecessor. They write off
Rehman's criticism as sour grapes, even though he poses key
questions that will help us assess GOP performance in the FATA
over the longer term. End comment.
SPANGLER