EUR PDAS VOLKER'S FEB 3 MEETING WITH SARKOZY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000953

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2016
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: EUR PDAS VOLKER'S FEB 3 MEETING WITH SARKOZY
ADVISOR AND FORMER INDUSTRY MINISTER PARTICK DEVEDJIAN

REF: A. (A) EMBASSY PARIS DAILY REPORT FOR FEBRUARY 6

B. 2006 AND PRIOR
(WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/EUR/PARIS/INDEX.CFM)

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: EUR Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary
Kurt Volker reviewed on February 3 with Patrick Devedjian, a
former industry minister and key advisor to Interior Minister
Sarkozy, how a possible Sarkozy administration would likely
approach relations with the U.S. Devedjian said a Sarkozy
administration would make "economic gestures" in connection
with the reconstruction of Iraq to signal -- as much as
domestic French opinion would allow -- France's more active
association with U.S. goals in the region. Devedjian
acknowledged that a Sarkozy victory in 2007 is far from a
sure thing, while discounting Prime Minister de Villepin's
chances of pushing Sarkozy aside as leader of the
center-right governing party. Devedjian acknowledged that
the unexpectedly persistent popularity of Socialist Party
(PS) dark horse Segolene Royal (ref A) was an unforeseen
development that is forcing contenders of both left and right
to revisit their electoral calculations, even if he did not
believe she could win in the end. END SUMMARY.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM A SARKOZY ADMINISTRATION
--------------

2. (C) "We will make economic gestures with regard to the
Iraq situation" is how Devedjian expressed what would be a
new French willingness, under a Sarkozy administration, to
more actively support U.S. goals in Iraq. Devedjian, evoking
the strand of anti-Americanism that persists in France and
the widespread public hostility to the U.S.-led invasion of
Iraq, cautioned however that how much France might be able to
do along these lines depended on what would be "politically
possible" at the time. Devedjian did not specify what those
"economic gestures" might be. Comment: Increases in
development aid and, possibly further debt forgiveness, could
be what he had in mind. End Commentg.


3. (C) Devedjian used the phrase "Atlanticist and
communitarian" to describe Sarkozy's overall outlook, and to
distinguish it from that of Villepin, which is often
described as "nationalist and Republican." Devedjian
underlined that "we will not be ceding to an anti-American
campaign," notwithstanding the efforts of Sarkozy's opponents
to try and tar Sarkozy as pro-American. Devedjian made clear
that not only would the Sarkozy campaign not engage in any
outbidding of the opposition in anti-Americanism, but that it
would also make every effort to avoid "bringing the U.S. into
our domestic politics."


4. (C) In response to PDAS Volker's hope that, at NATO, a
Sarkozy victory might result in useful, operationally
consequential changes in French behavior, Devedjian lamented
that the French press and public "are not interested in
NATO." This has permitted President Chirac, he said, to
conduct French policy in NATO beyond public scrutiny, without
accountability for the consequences. Devedjian suggested
that French institutional reforms proposed by Sarkozy,
specifically, an NSC-like coordinating mechanism for foreign
policy and periodic reports by the president to the
parliament on current issues, could have the effect of
bringing France's NATO policy out of the shadows. This might
eventually lead to a more positive appreciation of NATO's
role by the French public.

LONG, UNCERTAIN ROAD TO 2007
--------------

5. (C) Getting to a Sarkozy administration in 2007, as
Devedjian soberly acknowledged, was far from a foregone
conclusion. Devedjian believed that Sarkozy's "type of
leadership" -- "the hands-on leadership" seen in Sarkozy's
successful, personal management of the security response to
the urban unrest that swept France last fall, along with the
"rupture" with past practice advocated by Sarkozy -- are what
the French people truly want. Devedjian specified that by
"rupture with the past," Sarkozy primarily means slimming
down a bloated and pervasive state that stifles growth by
taking too big a share of national wealth and which
undermines individual initiative and commercial innovation by
over-regulation of business activity. Devedjian underlined
that voters want "renewal," and he musingly volunteered that

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"Sarkozy on the right, and Segolene (Royal) on the left" were
"the two candidates that would most respond to this desire
for change."


6. (C) Devedjian confidently dismissed the possibility of
Prime Minister de Villepin mounting a successful campaign to
replace Sarkozy as the candidate of the center-right in 2007.
Devedjian said that "Villepin and Sarkozy are in agreement"
that some sort of primary process should decide a single
nominee for their party, the UMP. Devedjian observed that
Villepin won't challenge Sarkozy for control of the party so
long as Sarkozy clearly benefits from both firm command of
the party and a healthy public image. He added that Villepin
"has always counted on Sarkozy's self-destruction -- which
he's been counting on in vain since 2002." Devedjian alluded
to Villepin's view that Sarkozy's personality -- somehow, not
presidential -- would in the long run work to shift the
support of the center-right to Villepin.


7. (C) Turning to the potential opposition to Sarkozy on the
center-left, Devedjian clucked at the long-running, confused
contentiousness in the Socialist Party (PS) over both who
will lead the party and what the party will stand for in

2007. In Devedjian's view, neither Party First Secretary
Francois Hollande nor any of the party's mainstream figures
are likely to make compelling candidates. Asked to assess
the option for the socialists of "bringing back Jospin" --
that is, unifying the divided PS under former Prime Minister
Lionel Jospin -- Devedjian declared that "Jospin isn't the
future, he's the past -- and that's not what voters are
looking for." As for the popular President of the
Poitou-Charentes Region, Segolene Royal, Devedjian said that,
despite her appeal to voters wanting change, "Segolene has no
chance" of winning the PS nomination.


8. (C) Devedjian pointed out that Royal had in preceding
days made statements in support of "Blairist" policies to
address some of France's economic problems. "The only other
Blairists in the PS are Kouchner and Bockel," Devedjian
summed up. (Note and comment: Former Health Minster Bernard
Kouchner and Mayor of Mulhouse Jean-Marie Bockel are the PS's
most outspoken "liberals." Adoption of anything resembling
their views is out of the question for the vast majority of
PS party members. Even so, Devedjian's inference is
disingenuous -- Royal is exceedingly popular among party
members. End note and comment.) Reflecting on how Royal's
popularity -- the emergence of her candidacy as a potentially
serious one -- has upset the calculations of contenders on
both left and right, Devedjian joked, "Now that she's wound
up and going, even Francois Hollande must realize she's not
going to quit at his, or anybody else's say so." (Note:
Royal and Hollande have been domestic partners for over 20
years. End Note.) Devedjian reprised the familiar refrain
that Royal's personality, allegedly both disagreeable and
brittle, is not up to carrying the weight of the presidency.
Implying that this unfitness for the job would become evident
in due time, Devedjian said that "Everybody who knows her
knows it, Francois Hollande most of all."

PARTICIPANTS
--------------

9. (SBU) Devejian was accompanied by the UMP's Director for
International Affairs, Pascal Drouhaut and a staff assistant,
Marie-Celie Guillaume. PDAS Volker was accompanied by POl
M-C and PolOff. Devedjian and Volker parted agreeing to stay
in touch -- in particular, should Devedjian, Drouhaut or
other Sarkozy advisors travel to Washington in the near
future.

SARKOZY'S ADVISORS
--------------

10. (C) Sarkozy's inner circle of political allies and
advisors consists of Francois Fillon, Brice Hortefeux and
Patrick Devedjian. Hortefeux is currently Junior Minister
(for Territorial Collectivities) under Sarkozy at the
Interior Ministry. Fillon and Devedjian, who were members of
the government of Jean-Pierre Rafferin, were excluded from
the current Villepin government precisely because of their
closeness to Sarkozy. Under Rafferin, Fillon was Minister of
Education and Devedjian was Junior Minister for Industry.
Both now have positions in the UMP, and devote themselves
full-time to making Nicholas Sarkozy the next president of
France. Fillon tends to take the lead in the fashioning of
Sarkozy's policy proposals, while Devedjian tends to focus on

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tactics for countering other contenders and on strategy for
getting the votes to win. Fillon is considered a likely
candidate for prime minister, with Devedjian at Justice or
Interior, should Sarkozy win in 2007.


11. (U) This message has not been cleared by PDAS Volker.
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

Stapleton