MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Russia-Ukraine Energy Tension

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SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Russia-Ukraine Energy Tension
Syria Bush's Iraq Speeches
PARIS - Tuesday, January 03, 2006


(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT:

Russia-Ukraine Energy Tension
Syria
Bush's Iraq Speeches

B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE:

A large majority of today's headlines are devoted to the
Russia-Ukraine tension over gas supplies, which are beginning
to also cripple Europe. Popular France Soir headlines "The
Energy War Threatens Europe," while Liberation headlines
"Energy War: Putin Turns on the Pressure" and adds: "Europe
concerned over its dependency on Russia." For editorialist
Patrick Sabatier, "Europe is discovering, like Little Red
Riding Hood, that Putin is indeed the Big Bad Wolf." Le Figaro
titles its front page: "Russian Gas: Putin Causes Difficulties
for Europe." For financial La Tribune's editorialist, "it is
clear that the conflict is not of a financial nature, this is
a political conflict." (See Part C) Former U.S. Ambassador
William Ramsay, Co-Chairman of the International Energy
Agency, is interviewed in La Croix: "The energy crisis could
potentially affect Europe's industry, but individuals will not
be affected. This is essentially a political crisis, between
Russia and Ukraine." Still, several editorials, including Les
Echos, suggest this is a good opportunity for Europe to
diversify its energy sources.

Other international news include the latest development in the
Hariri investigation and the UN's desire to question Syria's
President al-Assad. La Croix analyzes the relationship between
Washington and Damascus, at the "expense of Beirut." (See Part
C) The political battle in Washington triggered by the
eavesdropping controversy is reported in Le Figaro.

La Croix carries an op-ed entitled: "Bush in Nixon's
Footsteps." "If you simply replace the word communism in
Nixon's speeches by the word terrorism in Bush's speeches, you
get pretty much the same type of thought process, unfocussed
but determined." The author, Pierre de Charentenay, reviews
President Bush's recent Iraq speeches. (See Part C)

Popular France Soir devotes a two-page report, announced on
its front page, to "Latin America's Challenge to the U.S."
Thomas de Rochechouart describes "the emancipation of Latin
America, America's former hunting ground." France Soir also
interviews journalist and author Maurice Lemoine: "There are
two danger zones: Venezuela, where we can expect the U.S. to
begin operations of destabilization. and Bolivia. But one of
the keys for the rising left will be the elections in Brazil."

On the domestic front, President Chirac's decision to lift the
state of emergency, which was implemented November 8 during
the suburban violence, is the major domestic story. Many
articles are also devoted to a controversial case of
euthanasia and the justice system's probable decision not to
prosecute the victim's mother and doctor.

(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES:

Russia-Ukraine Energy Tension

"Negotiate, not Intimidate"
Patrick Sabatier in left-of-center Liberation (01/03): "Europe
thought it was done with the Cold War. It is now discovering
that the Kremlin can use energy with as much if not more
effectiveness as it did nuclear weapons. Like Little Red
Riding Hood, Europe is discovering that behind Putin's charm
there is a man-eating wolf ready to devour his neighbors.
Ukraine bears its own responsibility in the crisis: Russia is
simply applying the proven methods of international
capitalism. Gazprom-Exxon, it is the same battle. As for
Europe, it is learning a lesson. It forgot to define a common
energy strategy and to stock enough gas for the winter. Its
dependency on Russian gas is a serious weakness. Modern powers
need to define diversified energy policies, both
geographically and technologically, in order to ensure their
growth. In the immediate future it is also important to remind
our `Russian friend' that in an increasingly inter-dependent
world, he, like everyone else, must act responsibly. The time
has come to negotiate, not intimidate."

"Russian Dolls"
Pascal Aubert in centrist La Tribune (01/03): "Contemporary
Russia is undeniably tied to the famous image of the Russian
dolls. Like them, Moscow finds its meaning in the intricate
ties it has with its former satellites. The disagreement
between Moscow and Kiev is more than just a business issue. It
is a political confrontation by other means between a
dominating nation and its neighbors. The former Soviet nations
are prisoners of the economic dependency they have been locked
into with the Kremlin. Let us not forget that Gazprom is none
other than the former Soviet Ministry of Energy. Putin's
Russia is using the economic weapon as it did its military
might. Ukraine sinned in wanting to take its distance from the
former master. It is now paying the price for its
independence. The brutality of the Kremlin's reaction proves,
if proof were needed, that the conflict is not of a financial
nature: it is a political conflict."

"Europe and the Energy Crisis"
Patrick Lamm in right-of-center Les Echos (01/03): "Faced with
this `gas crisis' Europe must adopt a united front. This is
not such an easy task, considering that every European nation
has a different energy situation, some more dependent than
others on Russia's stocks. In the long run, Europe will need
to diversify its energy sources. First geographically, turning
to Latin America, North Africa, Norway and the Middle East.
Second, through the development of new energies, such as
nuclear energies."

Syria

"Al-Assad Wanted for Questioning"
Jean-Pierre Perrin in left-of-center Liberation (01/03): "For
the first time since the assassination of Hariri, Al-Assad's
regime appears to have been hit below the belt. What is
striking in the new offensive by Khaddam is the timing. All
observers have noted that in the past few weeks Syria had been
acting triumphant, looking as if it could deal with the
international pressure. The Syrian opposition itself seemed to
be losing its footing and looked divided. For the first time,
the accusations are coming from within. In Lebanon, Khaddam's
declarations were particularly well received. Among other
things, they weaken the allies of Damascus, Hezbollah."

"Beirut Afraid to Pay the Price of a Washington Damascus
Agreement"
Agnes Rotivel in Catholic La Croix (01/03): "If the Damascus
regime can help to stabilize the situation in Iraq, it hopes,
in return, to have to pay only a modest price in case Syria is
found to bear responsibility in Hariri's assassination.
Damascus could then give up a few individuals, but outside the
President's immediate circle. In exchange Damascus expects to
be paid back with Lebanon. Syria has yet to accept having been
forced out of Lebanon. Particularly because it feels Lebanon
was used by the French and the Americans to weaken Syria. The
fact is that Lebanon is crucial for Syria: economically, but
also politically vis-a-vis Israel. This is why Syria cannot
accept an anti-Syrian regime to take hold here. Conversely,
this situation is a source of concern for the Lebanese. All
the more so because history has taught them to be wary of
Washington's turnabouts. In exchange for rallying with the
anti-Saddam coalition during the Gulf war, Bush father had
given Syria the key to the house of Lebanon, which Assad had
immediately invaded, until last April."

Bush's Iraq Speeches

"Bush in Nixon's Footsteps"
Pierre de Charentenay in Catholic La Croix (01/03): "With five
major speeches on Iraq in three weeks, President Bush is
putting pressure on U.S. public opinion, because it is
beginning to abandon him. The U.S. President has been drafting
an apocalyptic picture of terrorism and its designs of turning
the world into `a gigantic battle ground.' He continues to
link Al-Qaeda and Iraq, and to mention the attacks of 9/11.
But he adds, `we are not losing.' And speaks of freedom for
the Middle East. Violence in Iraq continues and two Americans
out of three are increasingly wondering what the Marines are
doing there. In order to revamp a damaged image, Bush has been
developing a new idea: `victory.' Despite the absence of a
calendar for withdrawal and a precise strategy, the victory he
speaks of is supposed to launch a new dynamic. This rhetoric
of war and victory reminds one of Nixon's own rhetoric. Iraq
is not Vietnam. But the sequence of events is similar. And
today, like yesterday, all those who criticize the war are
labeled defeatists. The sequence of the Bush and Nixon
speeches is also striking: if you replace the word communism
with the word terrorism, one can see that the reasoning is the
same. The speeches are aimed to improve public opinion. But
the repetition of the same rhetoric is beginning to lose
ground because things aren't moving and words are becoming
suspect. No one wants a Vietnam style defeat. But if the war
in Iraq continues with the same dynamics, the perspective for
America is not great." STAPLETON