CHAD: FRENCH BELIEVE REBEL OFFENSIVE HAS RUNS ITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 007548

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR MOPS PGOV PINS CD FR
SUBJECT: CHAD: FRENCH BELIEVE REBEL OFFENSIVE HAS RUNS ITS
COURSE

REF: A. N'DJAMENA 1360


B. N'DJAMENA 1358

C. N'DJAMENA 1357

D. N'DJAMENA 1356

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA officials on November 27 said that the
rebel offensive in Chad seemed to be subsiding after gains
that peaked during the weekend. They believed that rebel
elements were withdrawing eastward towards Sudan. President
Deby, in contact with French officials in N'djamena, seemed
confident that the GOC had weathered this crisis. As of
today (November 27),France has taken no steps towards
evacuating its nationals. MFA Acting DAS-equivalent Guisnel
expressed concern that the instability emanating from Darfur
was having a particularly negative effect in the Central
African Republic and she urged that in seeking a solution to
the Darfur problem, all parties consider as well the
situation in countries neighboring Sudan, such as the C.A.R.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) MFA acting DAS-equivalent Isabelle Guisnel and Chad
deskoff Michael Deslaimes provided us with a readout on Chad
on November 27. They reported that the rebel offensive
seemed to have reached its high-water mark over the weekend
and was now subsiding. According to the most recent GOF
information, rebel elements were apparently withdrawing
eastward, in the direction of Sudan. Deslaimes said that the
GOC's military response had been sufficiently forceful and
that rebel elements understood that the balance of force
favored the government side. Faced with this reality, the
rebels had decided to pull back.


3. (C) Deslaimes said that N'djamena was reportedly calm on
November 27 with a normal level of activity. GOC military
forces were visible in N'djamena but "not at an unusually
high level." Deslaimes said that the current crisis was far
less severe than the April crisis, when rebel forces
presented a much greater threat to the government. Deslaimes
reported that the GOC seemed firmly in control of Abeche and
that the military base there remained secured, with life
slowly returning to normal in the town, although it had
apparently been well looted by the rebels during their short
period of control.


4. (C) Deslaimes said that the GOF had been in
communication with President Deby at several points during
the current rebel offensive and that he seemed confident and
in control. Deby believed that he had successfully weathered
the current crisis, Deslaimes reported. Newly-arrived French
Ambassador Bruno Foucher had presented his credentials prior
to the rebel offensive and fortunately did not need a
break-in period. Deslaimes said that Foucher intended to
maintain close communications with the U.S. Embassy. The
French Embassy to date had taken no steps to implement a
drawdown or evacuation, Deslaimes added.

DARFUR AND CONCERNS ABOUT C.A.R.


5. (C) Acting DAS-equivalent Guisnel said that the rebel
offensive in Chad underscored the importance of taking
regional factors into consideration in attempting to craft a
solution to the Darfur problem. She expressed particular
concern about C.A.R., where she said conditions were
worsening and where anti-government elements seemed to be
more of a permanent and threatening presence. She attributed
this development in part to the broad negative effect that
Darfur was having on Sudan's neighbors, whose own fragility
made them especially vulnerable to the violence, criminality,
and inhumanity emanating from Darfur.


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
STAPLETON