TOGO: MEETING WITH ERIC AMERDING (UFC)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 007335

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR TO FR
SUBJECT: TOGO: MEETING WITH ERIC AMERDING (UFC)

REF: PARIS 7153

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Classified By: Acting DCM Josiah Rosenblatt, 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Senior UFC member Eric
Amerding on November 8 said that he had discussed Togo with
EU Commission members on November 7, in response to an EU
request for UFC views on developments in Togo. Amerding told
the EU representatives that the Faure regime was not acting
in good faith with respect to the August 20 Global Political
Agreement, particularly with respect to the CENI and the
follow-up committee. UFC leader Gilchrist Olympio confirmed
to us that he will represent the UFC and attend the November
13 meeting. Amerding indicated that the UFC would focus on
the June 24, 2007, legislative elections in an effort to
ensure that they are free and fair, noting the Faure regime's
failure to pursue EU elections assistance in a timely manner
and to present a calendar of steps leading to the elections.
Amerding expressed concerns about China's growing presence in
Africa and how China could provide a tempting but possibly
unsavory alternative to Western support for the elections.
He criticized France for backing Faure and showing little
interest in the opposition's concerns, with other Europeans
following France's lead. Amerding worried that the Faure
regime would continue to try to manipulate and chip away at
the August 20 Agreement while trying to present a plausibly
acceptable image to the outside world. He requested that the
U.S. remain firmly engaged in Togo and do its best to
pressure Faure to meet his obligations under the agreement.
Despite Amerding's detailed explanation of the state of play
and UFC thinking, he gave the impression that the Olympio
camp is still focusing more on process-like issues than in
finding a way to become actively engaged. END SUMMARY AND
COMMENT.

DISCUSSION AT THE EU


2. (C) Senior UFC member Eric Amerding, one of UFC leader
Gilchrist Olympio's closest associates, meet with Assistant
Africa Watcher November 8, following Amerding's request for a
meeting. He began by describing his November 7 discussions
in Brussels with EU Commission officials Lopez Branco and
Bruno Gatta, who work for Louis Michel, European Commissioner
for Development and Humanitarian Aid. Amerding explained
that Michel's office had invited him to go to Brussels.
Michel had just sent a team to Togo to check progress on the
election planning and other matters related to the
transition. Amerding said that the team had returned to
Brussels, was not happy with what it saw in Togo, and had
invited the UFC to send Amerding to Brussels to provide the
UFC assessment of developments.

FAURE REGIME NOT ACTING IN GOOD FAITH


3. (C) Amerding told the EU officials that the Faure regime
was not acting in good faith in implementing the August 20
Global Political Agreement (the "Agreement"). He emphasized
two cases. First, the GOT had rejected a UFC proposal to
name a UFC person or other opposition figure as head of the
CENI. Amerding said this was very important because election
commission chiefs in the past (1998, 2003, 2005) had issued
results ordered by the presidency, not the "real" results of
elections in those years. Amerding told the EU officials
that having a Faure crony as head of the CENI would be a
mistake, giving the GOT leverage over the commission that it
had exploited in the past.


4. (C) The second point Amerding raised in Brussels was the
"comite de suivi," the follow-up committee (the "Committee")
to be formed after the signing of the Agreement that would
oversee its implementation. Amerding described the Faure
regime's efforts to complicate UFC participation. According
to him, Burkina Faso President Compaore, as head of the
Committee, had in the last week of October prepared letters
to all committee participants. These letters were
hand-carried by a Compaore aide to Lome and given to the GOT
to distribute. The letters said that the six participant
groups were each to name a Committee member and
vice-member/alternate by November 6. Amerding said that all
of the letters were delivered except the one addressed to the
UFC. The UFC found out about the contents of the letter from
the CDPA party. Amerding said he had no doubt that the GOT
had deliberately failed to deliver the letter in order to
complicate UFC action. However, the UFC was able to meet the
November 6 deadline and had faxed its response to President
Compaore.

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5. (C) The UFC named Gilchrist Olympio as its Committee
member and G. Latevi Lawson as his alternate. Amerding said
that he was not sure Olympio would accept the position or
travel to Ouagadougou for the November 13 meeting. He had
been considering a trip to Lome on November 15, during which
he planned to meet with his followers but did not plan to
meet with the GOT. (NOTE: Olympio contacted us later on
November 8 and said that he would represent the UFC on the
Committee and would attend the November 13 meeting in
Ouagadougou. END NOTE.)

LITTLE TRUST IN FAURE


6. (C) More generally, Amerding predicted that Faure would
continue to chip away at the Agreement, cutting corners here
and there, always probing to see what he could get away with.
Meanwhile, he would continue to give the impression of being
more open and modern than his father, and in this way meet
the minimal demands of the international community.

NO SHORT-TERM UFC STRATEGY


7. (C) When asked what the UFC and other opposition
elements intended to do in the short term and whether there
were other battles looming, Amerding had no ready answer. He
indicated that UFC and opposition attention would now shift
to the June 24, 2007, legislative elections. It was
important that each and every step of the elections process
be transparent, fair, and open to outside scrutiny. He had
no doubt the GOT would put up obstacles wherever it could.


8. (C) The Faure regime was already showing its
shortcomings. Amerding noted the failure of the GOT to
announce an election calendar that would show the steps
leading to the June 24 vote. All of these steps were
important -- taking an accurate census, registering voters,
organizing polling stations, printing ballots, registering
candidates, and the many other activities necessary for
holding fair elections. So far, there was no evidence the
Faure regime had done any of these things or was even
thinking about such tasks.


9. (C) Another problem was outside support for the
elections. Amerding said that the EU generally required
eight months of lead time to organize its participation in
elections, particularly with respect to funding issues.
Amerding said the GOT had so far done nothing to seek EU
support, with time running short. Amerding said that Olympio
had recently written to the EU and Compaore alerting them to
this problem. "Once again, Olympio is doing the work of the
GOT," Amerding lamented.

QUALMS ABOUT CHINA


10. (C) At this point, Amerding expressed unease about
China's increasing presence in Africa. He said that China's
"no strings attached" policies and general indifference to
human rights, good governance, and similar issues were
potentially quite appealing to leaders like Faure, who might
find in China a generous partner that did not make life
difficult over issues like human rights. "They appeal to the
worst instincts of some of Africa's leaders," he commented.
Amerding said that, while perhaps unlikely, it was possible
that China could provide assistance to Togo (either general
funding or funds earmarked for elections support) that Faure
could use to finance the elections. If so, Faure would then
not need EU or Western support (and would avoid the oversight
that would come with it). Amerding said that China had a
quite visible presence in Togo and that the Chinese community
there was becoming a factor in the economy, at all levels.


11. (C) To illustrate changing PRC attitudes, Amerding said
that China had some years previously financed a sports
stadium project in Lome. Originally, the GOT was supposed to
provide 25 percent of the funding. Initially, when the GOT
failed to follow through, the Chinese stopped work on the
facility, with the project left dormant. Not long ago, the
Chinese said they would resume the project even without the
GOT's contribution, thus "forgiving" the obligation.
Amerding said the project was completed with the facility now
in use.

LITTLE FAITH IN EUROPEANS


12. (C) Amerding said that France had "chosen to go with

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Faure" and was not much interested in the concerns the
opposition had been raising. One problem was that the other
Europeans seemed to take their lead from France, in
Amerding's view. He mentioned especially Germany and
Finland, and noted that the UK was not interested in Togo.
For most Europeans, the Togo issue was restricted to the EU's
engagement.

U.S. NEEDS TO MAINTAIN ITS ENGAGEMENT


13. (C) For all of these reasons, Amerding said that the
U.S. role was becoming more important, and he urged a
continued strong U.S. engagement in order to keep the Faure
regime on track and to keep Togo moving in a positive
direction. We repeated the U.S. goal of promoting democracy
in Togo and our intention to remain engaged with the
opposition, as demonstrated by Ambassador Dunn's extensive
consultation with Olympio, Amerding, and Lawson during his
recent visit to Paris (reftel). We suggested also that
despite recent setbacks, the UFC should continue to seek a
way to play a constructive role in Togo's transition.

FRANCOIS BOKO


14. (C) In closing, Amerding discussed briefly Francois
Boko, Togo's former Interior Minister who had to leave Togo
for exile in France after he called for the postponement of
the April 2005 presidential elections. Amerding said that
Boko and Olympio had not had direct contact, one reason being
Boko's unwillingness to be viewed as a member of Olympio's
camp. Amerding said that the other reason was one understood
by both Boko and Olympio -- everyone knew that Boko was privy
to much sensitive information during his tenure as Interior
Minister. If he were seen in close contact with Olympio, the
GOT would come to believe that Olympio would then be privy to
Boko's secrets. In Amerding's view, Boko and Olympio had
decided to maintain a certain distance for that reason, in
addition to Boko's own desire not to be viewed as an
associate of Olympio.

COMMENT


15. (C) Amerding gave a good accounting of UFC thinking and
its concerns. However, he continued to give the impression
that the UFC is still preoccupied with process-related
matters -- for example, Faure's failure to deliver Compaore's
letter and the problems this caused -- rather than thinking
of a way for the UFC to become actively and productively
engaged. END COMMENT.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
STAPLETON