MEDIA WRAP-UP: IRAQ AND U.S. MID-TERM ELECTIONS, VERDICT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 007328

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KPAO OPRC FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA WRAP-UP: IRAQ AND U.S. MID-TERM ELECTIONS, VERDICT
IN SADDAM HUSSEIN TRIAL, CHINA'S REACH IN AFRICA. NOVEMBER 9,


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2006.

Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Debate over the impact of the war in Iraq continued to fuel
widespread speculation prior to November 7 about a "lame duck
presidency," while most commentary on the results concluded that the
vote had "punished" President Bush's Iraq policy. Journalists
analyzed the verdict in the Saddam Hussein trial in the context of
the U.S. elections and through the prism of Europe's stance on
capital punishment. The media examined the perceived decline of
French influence in Africa and China's trade increasing partnership
with Africa on the occasion of the China-Africa Cooperation Summit
held in Beijing. End Summary.

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MID-TERM ELECTIONS: IRAQ POLICY "PUNISHED"
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2. (SBU) Most French commentators predicted that the vote would be a
"referendum" on the Administration's Iraq policy, with
right-of-center Le Figaro's Philippe Gelie arguing that "while the
Democrats were taking advantage of the Republicans' disarray, the
fact was they had no miracle solution to offer." Immediately after
the first results were available November 7, however, Alain de
Chalvron argued on FR2 television that "a new phase of the Bush
Presidency had begun," concluding that "President Bush, who until
now held all the seats of power, would be challenged by his nemesis,
Nancy Pelosi." Left-of-center Le Monde argued that the elections
were "an electoral rebuke for President Bush" while left-wing
Liberation characterized the results as a "stinging punishment."
But for right-of-center La Tribune, "the results were far from a
landslide, except where Iraq was concerned." "Americans are ready
for change," concluded Daniel Vernet in left-of-center Le Monde as
he defined the framework for "a different presidency" with a
President "who previously believed himself above the law and who
would have to learn to negotiate and compromise."


3. (SBU) Right-of-center Le Figaro speculated that Secretary
Rumsfeld's resignation opened the way to "a possible turn-about in
Iraq," although left-wing Liberation concluded that "nothing had
changed for Iraq" and that, "for President Bush, the descent into
hell was only just beginning." Catholic La Croix argued it was
"healthy to see America's unilateralism being asked to show some
modesty" but La Croix also noted that "counterweights such as
Europe, NATO and the UN were not always up to doing a better job."
Reacting to President Bush's press conference, regional La Provence
paid tribute to the President's versatility, "at times proud,
arrogant, humble or resigned" but always apt to "surprise us." The
editorial saluted President Bush for "quickly accepting his large
personal responsibility for the Republican defeat."

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GUILTY VERDICT IN SADDAM HUSSEIN TRIAL
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4. (SBU) French media devoted widespread coverage to the verdict in
the Saddam Hussein trial, although official reaction was muted, with
right-of-center Le Figaro reporting that France simply
"acknowledged" the verdict while "highlighting its opposition to the
death penalty." Left-of-center Le Monde emphasized that "only
London sided fully with Washington, while European nations rejected
the death sentence." A commentary in left-wing Liberation
criticized France's diplomats for their "humanitarian" concern for
Saddam Hussein. Popular right-of-center Le Parisien carried an
interview with former Socialist Justice Minister Roland Dumas who
opined that "although France's stance was the right one, it needed
to speak louder."


5. (SBU) Right-of-center weekly news magazine L'Express termed the
sentence a "Deadly Verdict," echoing the concern in most media
commentaries that, as left-wing Liberation claimed, the verdict
"could exacerbate a civil war." In right-of-center Le Figaro,
senior political reporter Renaud Girard argued that "sentencing
Saddam Hussein to death would not save Iraq," an opinion also made
in Catholic La Croix which insisted that "sentencing a man to death,
whatever his crimes, would never establish unity in Iraq." Popular
right-of-center Le Parisien warned that "many Sunnis might identify
with Saddam, forgetting he was a dictator." In right-of-center Le
Figaro, Pierre Rousselin editorialized on the "limitations of a
verdict" and questioned whether the trial might not have "aggravated
the differences between communities in Iraq" instead of "serving
justice." Rousselin speculated that "the verdict could help the
Republicans" and serve to "legitimize, after the fact, a military

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2006.

operation based on lies." In right-of-center Les Echos, a report
entitled, "Bush Rides Saddam's Death Sentence," claimed that
"Washington could not have hoped for better timing."

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CHINA'S REACH IN AFRICA
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6. (SBU) Left-wing Liberation's extensive coverage of the summit for
Chinese-African cooperation (Focac) held in Beijing on November 4
led with a quote from World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz from an
interview with Les Echos: "China must not make the same errors
France and the U.S. made with Africa," by sacrificing good
governance for economic gain. The high volume of trade between
China and Africa, which makes China Africa's third largest trade
partner, led left-wing Liberation to warn: "Why not the first? It
is only a question of time." Left-wing Liberation observed that,
like the Americans, "the Chinese were stepping into former colonial
grounds" and concentrating on "oil- and mineral-producing nations,"
without concern for "human rights issues." But left-wing Liberation
editorialized that, "the West's own mistakes in Africa did not work
in favor of its criticism of China, even if Beijing would in time be
forced to address issues of 'stability' in the African continent."
Both left-wing Liberation and right-of-center Le Figaro concluded on
an optimistic note, writing that "the West's accusation that Beijing
is closing its eyes to the programmed genocide in Darfur may have
reached its target. Hu Jintao appealed to President el-Bechir for
'a fair solution' in Darfur." Right-of-center Le Journal du
Dimanche was less upbeat in its commentary, arguing that "China,
America's ally, only timidly asked the Sudanese representatives to
'improve the humanitarian situation' in Darfur."
STAPLETON