"WE'RE STUCK": FRENCH GLUM ON LEBANON,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 007211

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/2/2016
TAGS: FR KDEM PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: "WE'RE STUCK": FRENCH GLUM ON LEBANON,
ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN RELATIONS


Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary: In an Oct. 31 meeting with NEA DAS Scott
Carpenter, MFA A/S-equivalent for the Middle East and North
Africa Jean Felix-Pagagnon said FM Douste-Blazy was unlikely
to attend the November 30 session of the Forum For the Future
in Jordan. Felix-Pagagnon went on to offer a remarkably
bleak tour d'horizon of the region. On Lebanon, he predicted
it would be "very difficult" to make further progress on the
implementation of UNSCR 1701 in the near future and said
France wanted to offer additional economic support to the
Siniora government but faced dire budgetary constraints.
With respect to the Palestinians, Felix-Pagagnon said the
prospect of a national unity government appeared "more remote
than ever." He assessed that PA President Abbas ("a nice old
man, but not a leader") was headed toward a confrontation
with Hamas that would likely result in new elections, but it
was far from certain that Abbas would come out on top. "If
Abbas loses, then we will be confronted with a reinforced
Hamas," he mused. Felix-Pagagnon sought to disassociate
France from Spanish FM Moratinos' call for an international
conference on the Middle East ("not what Chirac had in
mind"),and finished by saying that France was content to
keep turning the screws on Syria for the time being. End
summary.

Participants
--------------


2. (C) NEA DAS Scott Carpenter met October 31 with Jean
Felix-Pagagnon, the Quai's Director for the Middle East and
North Africa (NEA A/S equivalent). Felix-Pagagnon was
accompanied by his PDAS-equivalent, Gilles Bonnaud, and by
Nathalie Yafi, the Directorate's point-person on the
Barcelona Process and BMENA issues. DAS Carpenter was joined
by Embassy Pol MinCouns and NEA Watcher.

Mideast Reform
--------------


3. (C) DAS Carpenter led off with a description of the
Department's latest efforts to promote democratic reform in
the region. Felix-Paganon contended that reform was a "huge
challenge" and "a chicken and egg question" in terms of its
relationship with Israeli-Palestinian peace. "The Arab
governments all say that without progress on the Middle East
peace process it is too dangerous for them to move on
reform," Felix-Pagagnon observed. DAS Carpenter pushed back
against the idea that democratic reform should be held
hostage to the peace process, noting that the region suffers
from tremendous political, demographic and economic
challenges that urgently need to be addressed whatever the
status of Palestinian-Israeli relations. Turning to the
November 30 session of the Forum for the Future in Jordan,
Felix-Pagagnon observed that FM Douste-Blazy was unlikely to
attend because of another engagement.

Gloom on Lebanon . . .
--------------


4. (S) Felix-Pagagnon then offered a markedly pessimistic
analysis of developments in the Middle East, which he
perceived to be dangerously adrift. "I don't know where we
are headed," he said. Despite the accomplishments of UNSCR
1701 (the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon/the deployment
of the LAF in the south),further progress would be "very
difficult" to achieve. Although the French were working on a
package of security proposals that they planned to share with
the GOI in the near future, he feared that the current
regional dynamic would allow Hizballah to block any progress
simply by refusing to release its IDF captives. "We're
stuck," he summarized.


5. (S) Moreover, Felix-Pagagnon foresaw sharp limits to any
further French financial aid for Lebanon. He acknowledged
that the success of the January 2007 "Paris 3" conference
would hinge on Lebanese economic reforms: the international
community would not open its wallet without evidence of
serious reform. However, reform would only be possible if
the Siniora government could find a way to make it palatable
to a public accustomed to generous social benefits (he
estimated that a third of Lebanon's deficit was due to
subsidized utilities). Consequently, the challenge was to
find an infusion of money that would allow PM Siniora to make
reform palatable to the Lebanese electorate. Unfortunately,
French Treasury officials insisted that France faced its own
"dire constraints" and could ill-afford any new grants to
Lebanon -- although favorable loans remained a possibility.


6. (S) Rounding out his assessment of Lebanon, Felix-Pagagnon
opined that the Siniora government was in bad shape, having
failed to take the lead on reconstruction away from
Hizballah. He added that while both the Siniora government
and that of Israeli PM Olmert could be described as weak,
there was no true comparison because a collapse of the Olmert
government would only trigger a short political crisis,
whereas a collapse of Siniora's government would occasion a
structural crisis in the Lebanese polity.

. . . And Doom on Israeli-Palestinian Relations
-------------- --


7. (S) Sobering though his assessment of Lebanon was,
Felix-Pagagnon seemed to find the current state of play
between the Israelis and Palestinians even more dismaying.
He said the prospects for a Palestinian government of
national unity were "more remote than ever" and that both
Hamas and President Abbas believed there was no way to reach
an agreement on the basis of the Quartet's principles.
Consequently, the Quai perceived a looming confrontation
between President Abbas and Hamas, with Abbas likely
replacing the Hamas-led government with a cabinet of
technocrats before proceeding to a referendum or new
parliamentary elections. "Nobody knows what the outcome of
those elections would be; our CG in Jerusalem says it could
go either way," Felix-Pagagnon said. But the stars did not
favor Abbas: Fatah had failed to put its house in order, and
Abbas himself was "a nice old man, but not a leader . . . If
Abbas loses, then we will be confronted with a reinforced
Hamas." (Israeli PM Olmert fared little better in
Felix-Pagagnon's opinion. "A bit of a disappointment -- it's
no surprise that many Israelis distrust their political
leadership," was the French diplomat's tart assessment.) He
concluded by suggesting that Palestinian society was "headed
to catastrophe" and said Israel would not find it any easier
to co-exist with a Palestinian society that had totally
disintegrated. "Even if it's just disorganized shabab running
around throwing Molotov cocktails (as opposed to organized
Hamas violence),how is that better?" he asked.

Moratinos' Conference? Not What Chirac Envisioned
-------------- --------------


8. (S) Felix-Pagagnon sought to distance France from Spanish
FM Moratinos' call for an international conference on Middle
East peace. "While it's true that President Chirac called
for an international conference, we don't think this is what
he had in mind," he said. Chirac thought that an
international conference "was an idea worth exploring," but
the French did not intend for such a conference to be a
starting point for final status talks. "We have no specific
proposals. Ours is not the Amr Musa/Arab League approach
where one comes with a blueprint of what the parties need to
do, and then the parties tick the boxes," he said.


9. (S) Nonetheless, Felix-Pagagnon evinced little love for
the Roadmap, or even for the Quartet principles (which,
ironically enough, were first articulated by the French
themselves). "The principles are ok, but they're primarily
for reasonable people, not extremists," he explained. In his
view, both the Roadmap and the Quartet principles allowed
extremists to block any movement towards peace.

Syria: A Few More Twists of the Screw
--------------


10. (S) While he doubted that international isolation was
having much of an effect on Hamas, Felix-Pagagnon said he was
confident that the isolation of Syria was bearing fruit. (He
noted laughingly, however, that France itself was isolated
within Europe on the question of isolating Syria.) Having
made a hash of its relations with the Gulf and Egypt, Syria
had never been so isolated within the Arab world. The
Brammertz investigation provided an additional tool for
bringing pressure to bear. Felix-Pagagnon added
philosophically: "At some point we need to offer the Syrians
a way out, but we need a few more twists of the screws first.
So for now, we should keep turning the screws."


11. (S) In conclusion, a somewhat sheepish Felix-Pagagnon
apologized for his negativity. He noted: "We really feel we
are in a quagmire. We need fresh thinking, but the overall
environment is not propitious for fresh thinking." (Comment:
On a personal level, Felix-Pagagnon was far from despondent
-- he displayed a certain mordant wit even when his analysis
was at its bleakest. But we take seriously his candid
assessment of the difficulty in making further progress on
UNSCR 1701 implementation -- and his admission that the
French have no good ideas about where to go from here. As
for the Palestinians, the French had clearly pinned their
hopes on Hamas joining a national unity government, and were
almost certainly prepared to accept any wink and a nod to the
Quartet principles that President Abbas managed to extract
from the Hamas leadership. Khalid Mishal's ineptitude has
made the job of keeping the French on the reservation easier
for the time being, but -- as Felix-Pagagnon's comments
denote -- they are not happy about it. End comment.)


12. (U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Carpenter.


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