MEDIA WRAP-UP: DPRK SANCTIONS, IRAQ AND FRENCH-TURKISH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 006943

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SUBJECT: MEDIA WRAP-UP: DPRK SANCTIONS, IRAQ AND FRENCH-TURKISH
TENSIONS. OCTOBER 20, 2006


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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) This week's commentary led with items on potential
sanctions following North Korea's nuclear test and the difficulty of
finding a balance between a firm stance and China's concerns over
the "disintegration" of North Korea (DPRK),with a number of media
linking the DPRK and Iran. Iraq stayed high on the media agenda
following speculation about the Baker Study Group's possible
recommendations and commentary on the British stance and a possible
new Pentagon doctrine. French editorialists analyzed the growing
tension between France and Turkey in the context of a bill aiming to
criminalize denial of the 'Armenian genocide' within the framework
of complex EU-Turkey negotiations. End Summary.

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DPRK SANCTIONS -- IRAN WATCHFUL
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2. (SBU) Secretary of State Rice's trip to Asia led left-of-center
Le Monde to argue in an editorial that "the united front at the
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was fragile and that serious
snags could be expected between Washington and Beijing" on the DPRK
sanctions issue. Right-of-center Le Figaro intoned that "China's
reservations would be at the center of the talks with Secretary
Rice" and that Beijing "was concerned about the regional
consequences of a disintegration of the North Korean regime."
Right-of-center Le Figaro also argued that China "was afraid of
having to pick up the pieces in the event that the Bush
Administration went ahead with its old design of toppling the regime
of the third member of the 'axis of evil.'"


3. (SBU) Right-of-center Le Figaro noted that "Iran was watching
developments with interest" and would take into account the level of
"determination adopted in implementing the sanctions." France's
call for unity from the international community "when it is facing
other proliferation crises" led right-of-center Le Figaro to agree
that "making a connection between the two current nuclear crises was
inevitable" and "forced the EU to adopt a tougher stance towards
Iran, while remaining cautious."

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BAKER IRAQ STUDY GROUP ELICITS CONJECTURE
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4. (SBU) Right-of-center Le Figaro reported that, far from past
plans to bring home the GIs, "the numbers of soldiers on the ground
had increased to 141,000, with great pressure to maintain troops in
Iraq for a long period." Philippe Gelie in right-of-center Le
Figaro cited escalating casualties to speculate on the "Pentagon's
last touches to a new doctrine" without developing his subject.
Right-of-center Le Journal du Dimanche claimed that "Washington was
considering a 'coup' in Iraq to put an end to the quagmire."
Popular right-of-center France Soir quoted UK General Richard Dannat
and Le Journal du Dimanche as it editorialized about "pulling out"
or reverting to "a coup."


5. (SBU) Left-of-center Le Monde suggested that Washington's "Iraq
strategy" would be a factor in the November elections and picked up
the L.A. Times' report that Baker was suggesting two options,
"Baghdad's stabilization with help from Syria and Iran or a gradual
pullout from Iraq to bases situated outside Iraq." Left-wing
Liberation argued in a harsh editorial that "Iraq was a millstone
around the Republicans' necks" and that President Bush was no longer
credible, claiming, "The time for lofty speeches about democracy is
over." The editorial alleged that Washington was uneasy about the
Iraqi government's lack of progress, concluding, "Baker will have to
offer a way out that preserves America's honor and guarantees Iraq's
survival: in short, mission impossible."

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TURKEY REACTS TO FRENCH 'ARMENIAN GENOCIDE' BILL
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6. (SBU) Commentators argued that "since Chirac recently linked
Turkey's EU membership to the 'Armenian genocide'" a "slow
deterioration" in Franco-Turkish relations was taking place, peaking
with the Socialist-led bill criminalizing revisionism of the
'genocide.' Despite Chirac's call to Turkish PM Erdogan, and PM
Villepin's opposition to the bill, "because it is not a good idea to
legislate about matters of history or remembrance," right-of-center
Le Figaro concluded that "France's prestige in Turkey was
tarnished." One commentator in left-of-center Le Monde criticized
the Socialists for "playing up to France's Armenian constituency and

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more broadly to all those in France who oppose Turkey's EU
membership." Right-of-center Le Figaro emphasized that "what Turkey
is calling 'Chirac's criteria' for EU membership did not fit with
the Copenhagen criteria," leading France's EU allies to "distance
themselves from a stance which did not reflect Europe's position,"
as noted by the Finnish EU-President. Reports of media-fueled
anti-French feelings in Turkey and demands for "retaliatory trade
sanctions" led left-wing Liberation to comment that "Turkey can
boycott, but with moderation," a position shared by most
commentators who argued that "Ankara cannot afford to push French
companies out of Turkey."
HOFMANN