FRANCE/GUINEA: HOW WILL THE SUCCESSION PLAY OUT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 006537

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR EAID GV FR
SUBJECT: FRANCE/GUINEA: HOW WILL THE SUCCESSION PLAY OUT?

REF: CONAKRY 1446

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, 1.4 (b/
d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The succession question in Guinea remains
a focus of French concerns, according to MFA desk officer
Damien Syed. President Conte, in ill health, has not done
much to prepare for it, and the GOF is concerned that the
military, led by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Colonel Kerfalla Camara, may attempt to seize power following
Conte's death, despite constitutional provisions under which
National Assembly Speaker Aboubacar Sompare would assume
power. The French have been encouraging a broadening of the
political process, including improved dialogue with the
opposition and electoral reform, which could unblock about 93
million euro in EU funding. However, French influence in
Guinea is limited, with President Chirac not having the kind
of personal relationship with Conte that he enjoys (and is
able to exploit) with other African leaders. Guinea is
stagnating politically, economically, and socially, as
Guineans nervously await the post-Conte era. END SUMMARY.

SUCCESSION IS THE MAIN ISSUE
--------------

2. (C) MFA desk officer for Guinea Damien Syed on September
25 provided an overview of French concerns about Guinea,
which he said focused on the succession issue and possible
scenarios once President Conte dies. Syed said that Conte's
health remained fragile, with trips to Switzerland August
11-17 and earlier this year for medical reasons. Syed said
that Conte also appeared to consider Cuba as a possible
destination for medical care. Conte could die at any time,
Syed believed. The succession issue was playing out against
a backdrop of continuing political, economic, and social
agitation, with tensions mounting in part because of
widespread uncertainty about Guinea's future.

THINGS FALL APART . . .
--------------

3. (C) Syed added that an eruption of civil unrest, even
before Conte's death, remained a possibility. He noted the
June riots, growing activism on the part of Guinea's labor
unions, and the opposition's continued attempts to "stir up
the masses." The labor unions had indicated that they would
mobilize again before the end of 2006. In Syed's view, the
GOG had not responded to popular and opposition calls for
reform, which he attributed to a mixture of "incompetence and
cynicism" on the part of the government.

. . . WITH LITTLE FORESIGHT
--------------

4. (C) Syed said that Conte, as had other African leaders
before him, had done little to prepare for succession, even
though "he must be aware that he will not be around much
longer." Moreover, there was no son or other immediate
family member groomed to take power or suited to do so, Syed
said. None of Conte's children had much political experience
or demonstrated much skill or interest in statecraft, Syed
remarked. The resulting vacuum has proved disquieting for
Guineans and concerned observers.

POLITICAL JOCKEYING
--------------

5. (C) So far, Conte seemed to enjoy the loyalty of
Guinea's military, with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Colonel Kerfalla Camara and Camara's adjutant remaining loyal
to Conte and enjoying his confidence. Echoing reftel, Syed
described continued jockeying among Minister of Presidential
Affairs Fode Bangoura, National Assembly Speaker Aboubacar
Sompare, and "other members of the political class." Syed
noted that under the constitution, Sompare would assume power
were Conte to die suddenly.

6 (C) Syed said that Sompare was "very experienced and
intelligent" but, fatally, seemed to lack the support of the
ruling PUP party, even though Sompare was one of its
founders. Sompare had been working the past few months to
build popular support by, for example, providing funds to
victims of the June riots, and had attempted to build ties to
Colonel Camara.

MILITARY SEIZURE OF POWER
--------------

7. (C) Colonel Camara, Syed commented, has "said the right
things" about loyalty to the state and its institutions, but
Syed said that the most likely scenario, once Conte died,
would involve a seizure of power by the military, led by
Colonel Camara. Syed said that a military coup would of

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course produce broad criticism from the international
community, and he was confident that ECOWAS would condemn it.
However, Syed noted that former Prime Minister Cellou
Dallein Diallo, removed from office in April 2006, recently
told GOF interlocutors that he actually favored a military
coup, as it "would probably be better than the alternatives."
The GOF did not agree with Diallo but took note of his
implicit criticism of the leadership that other succession
scenarios might produce.

FRANCE ENCOURAGES REFORM BUT INFLUENCE IS LIMITED
-------------- --------------

8. (C) For its part, France has been encouraging reform, a
broadening of the political process, and dialogue with the
opposition, Syed said. Minister-Delegate for Development,
Cooperation, and Francophonie Brigitte Girardin stressed good
governance during her visit to Guinea at the end of May.
France and others have been gauging progress in Guinea by
tracking how recent elections have been managed. Results
have been mixed, with some progress but also setbacks, such
as the flawed December 2005 elections and its poorly
organized election commission. A big test would be the 2007
legislative elections. Syed said that election reform was a
critical element to unblocking EU funding for Guinea, which
could amount to a total of 93 million euro. Despite this
lucrative incentive, Guinea was making slow progress, at
best, on the kind of electoral reforms the EU wanted to see.


9. (C) Syed said that France's efforts in Guinea were
hampered by the fact that there was not much of a personal
relationship between Presidents Chirac and Conte. France has
benefited from Chirac's personal ties to other African
leaders but these did not exist with Guinea. Conte was a
product of Sekou Toure's anti-Western nationalist school,
Syed remarked. Minister of Presidential Affairs Bangoura,
Syed commented, seemed particularly suspicious of France and
Westerners generally.


10. (C) France's presence in Guinea was small, with about
2,700 citizens there, most of whom were involved in the hotel
and restaurant trades. French banks also had a few French
representatives in Guinea. Investors and entrepreneurs were
discouraged by haphazard business laws, their haphazard
enforcement, and the absence of a reliable legal system to
resolve disputes. Chinese competition, on the other hand,
was growing, Syed remarked.

EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF?
--------------

11. (C) Syed concluded with the observation that the
stagnating political, economic, and social climate,
aggravated by overwhelming concern with the succession, was
producing an "every man for himself" mentality, in which
people and institutions, uncertain about the future and
increasingly insecure on many fronts, were looking to protect
only their own immediate interests, with no thought given to
individual or group sacrifice for the common good. This did
not bode well for the future, Syed commented, and he
expressed the hope that Conte's passing would not push Guinea
into an accelerating downward spiral.


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
STAPLETON