DEBY BETTER OFF AFTER TRIPOLI. UN DROPPING THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001036

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM IV SU CD FR
SUBJECT: DEBY BETTER OFF AFTER TRIPOLI. UN DROPPING THE
BALL ON IVORY COAST ELECTIONS

REF: PARIS 963

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Classified By: Acting DCM Josiah B. Rosenblatt. Reasons 1.4b,d


1. (C) Summary: The French Presidency is relieved at the
outcome of the Tripoli summit, which has significantly
defused tensions between Sudan and Chad. Elysee Africa Cell
Deputy Labriolle reported that Libya was pleased to have
demonstrated its diplomatic credibility and had laid the
groundwork for a larger role on the crisis, if required.
Labriolle lavished praise for the summit outcome on the
technical performance of Congo/Brazzaville FM Adada. He
related that Libya, in conversations with Chirac's Africa
Counselor Michel de Bonnecorse, had equated AMIS re-hatting
with foreign occupation. MFA AF PDAS-Equivalent Barbier
related AU Chairperson Konare appeared under heavy pressure
from Sudan and OIC members to resist an expeditious transfer
for AMIS to UN leadership. Separately, Labriolle suggested
there were possibilities of a resolution to Chad's imbroglio
with the World Bank. On Cote d'Ivoire he complained that the
UN was failing to engage in support of elections. End
Summary.

Tripoli Summit: France Satisfied
--------------


2. (C) The French Presidency views the outcome of the
Tripoli summit with satisfaction, Jacques de Labriolle,
deputy to the Presidential Africa Counselor, told Africa
Watcher on February 15. Although there was no concrete
outcome, e.g. a border monitoring force, the summit served
its purpose by helping to defuse tensions and avert open
conflict between Sudanese President Bashir and Chadian
President Deby. Labriolle underscored the significance of
Bashir's and Deby's public commitment to desist from
subversive actions, namely aiding and arming rebel groups.
Even if Deby and Bashir do not observe the agreement to the
letter, it has already caused discouragement among certain
rebel elements. Deby's hold on power appeared more secure
and he was gaining back the loyalty of wavering elements in
his ruling clique. (Note: Labriolle intimated Deby's renewed
distribution of emoluments was paying dividends.) There was
a sense of relief at the Elysee and hope that the worst of
the crisis was over.


3. (C) Asked if France anticipated that Libya would seek to
expand on its mediation role, Labriolle noted that Tripoli
had laid the groundwork though there were no immediate
indications of follow-up. Libya would chair the three
commissions established at the summit. Overall, the Libyan
Government was delighted to have demonstrated it could play a
"mature" role in international diplomacy. (Note: Labriolle
personally evinced contempt for past Libyan terrorist
actions, and commented that Qadhafi was now jaded and in some
respects "broken", while not discounting his enduring
potential for mischief.)


4. (C) Labriolle had high praise for Congo/Brazzaville FM
Adada, "a superb technician." Burkina Faso President
Compaore, with his strong connections throughout the Sahel,
also exerted influence. Labriolle brushed aside CAR
President Bozize's role as insignificant.

AMIS Re-Hatting
--------------


5. (C) Labriolle reiterated that the French Presidency
"absolutely" supports UN re-hatting of AMIS. He admitted
that new French budgetary legislation left MFA colleagues in
a bind on how to finance the French UN assessment for a new
Darfur mission, but he did not believe the problem would
prove insoluble (Reftel).


6. (C) Labriolle commented that Chirac's Africa Counselor
Michel de Bonnecorse had just spoken with Al-Triki and sought
to overcome the veteran Libyan diplomat's resistance.
Al-Triki complained that a UN mission would be tantamount to

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foreign occupation; Bonnecorse rejoined that the UN mission
would be primarily African in any case, since the bulk of
AMIS forces would stay on. (Note: Al-Triki is traveling to
France and to Slovakia for medical follow-up on a foot injury
sustained at the 2005 Africa-France summit in Mali.
Labriolle related with amusement that French FM Douste-Blazy,
a medical doctor by training, had had to provide emergency
treatment to the Libyan during the conference.)


7. (C) Obtaining an AU endorsement was critical, yet
Labriolle said he had not been tracking discussion on
accelerating AU consideration in advance of a March
ministerial meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council. AU
Chairperson Konare would be reluctant to cut corners, he
observed; past efforts at finagling AU procedures had had
painful consequences, for instance in AU debates on UN
Security Council Reform. Labriolle commented that the French
Government did not have a privileged relationship with
Konare, whom he called a "man of the Left" with deeply
conflicted sentiments toward France. By contrast, Chirac and
Sassou-Nguessou were very friendly and were in touch
frequently. (Note: In a February 17 conversation, MFA AF
PDAS-Equivalent, taking issue with Labriolle's judgment,
asserted Paris had very deep ties to Konare but Konare
remained very much his own man in the sphere of political
action. She believed Konare was under heavy pressure from
Sudan and certain OIC nations to proceed deliberately on AMIS
re-hatting.)

Chad: Resolving the World Bank Imbroglio
--------------


8. (C) Labriolle revealed that Chad President Deby would be
in Paris later in the week, apparently for medical reasons.
The timing was unfortunate, since Chirac was away overseas in
Thailand and India. Bonnecorse would be calling on Deby.
(Note: Labriolle added that French authorities, on a
previous visit, had lent Deby a state residence to facilitate
discretion and comfort during a 15-day convalescence.)


9. (C) Labriolle was hopeful for a resolution of the impasse
with the World Bank. The French Presidency was suggesting
the World Bank and the IMF dispatch a joint evaluation
mission to Chad. Its investigations presumably would
determine that Chad was facing new hardships and that
circumstances warranted alteration of the original protocol.
Labriolle argued for inclusion of the IMF because Deby would
refuse an evaluation mission solely under auspices of the
World Bank.


10. (C) The World Bank imbroglio, if not resolved soon,
could have far-ranging repercussions, Labriolle claimed.
Chadian authorities were angered and inclined to force
renegotiation of other agreements, for instance with Cameroon
and with Exxon-Mobil. The Elysee thinks World Bank Chairman
Wolfowitz understands the situation, but the bank's
bureaucracy remains committed to the 1999 law as a watershed
pilot program that the World Bank must maintain. France will
continue to encourage dialogue. Labriolle added that the
Chadians do not know how to deal with the World Bank. He
commented that the Chadians were reacting very poorly to the
lead role of Robin Cleveland, a competent and fair negotiator
according to Labriolle, whose gender nonetheless is proving
an impediment due to prejudices in the Chadian delegation.


11. (C) Labriolle said the Elysee was wrestling with the
notion of having Deby postpone elections and extend his
mandate for a finite period before stepping down
definitively. Moreover, the power of Arab and African
leaders derives from a perception of their durability, making
Deby's assent problematic. Labriolle suggested a need for
further discussion.

Cote d'Ivoire: UN Must Engage on Elections
--------------


12. (C) Labriolle lambasted UN reluctance to engage on

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preparations for elections in Cote d'Ivoire. While Ivorian
authorities should organize the elections proper, the UN must
assume a supervisory role, implementing controls and
exercising oversight. Resolution 1630 provides sufficient
authority if allowed a proactive reading, he asserted. UN
envoy for elections Antonio Monteiro appeared intimidated, he
commented. Labriolle refused to entertain the possibility
that the election calendar could slip. The timetable was in
jeopardy, he admitted, and Gbagbo, who faces probable
electoral defeat, would continue maneuvers to derail
preparations. Nonetheless, any talk of delay would become a
self-fulfilling prophecy, he feared.


13. (C) Labriolle reiterated French appeals for senior U.S.
participation at meetings of the International Working Group
in Abidjan. France will continue to participate at
ministerial level, dispatching Minister for Cooperation and
Development Brigitte Girardin.


14. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

Stapleton