PANAMA: INTERNAL RULING-PARTY DYNAMICS AS JOSTLING

UNCLAS PANAMA 000540

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: INTERNAL RULING-PARTY DYNAMICS AS JOSTLING
FOR 2009 ELECTIONS BEGINS -- PART III: THE VEEPS

REF: A. PANAMA 0502

B. PANAMA 0525


1. (U) "The Veeps" is Part III in a three-part series on
Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) inner dynamics.
Part I: The Front Runners (reftel A).
Part II: The Unwanted One (reftel B).

SUMMARY
--------------

2. (SBU) The PRD's vice presidential candidate in 2009 is
likely to be Balbina Herrera or Hector Aleman, both of them
cabinet members, founding members of the Democratic
Revolutionary party (PRD),locally-educated, self-made but
experienced politicians with populist, anti-USG backgrounds.
Herrera (Minister of Housing) and Aleman (Minister of
Government and Justice) are discretely but aggressively
positioning themselves for winning an invitation from the
PRD's presidential candidate invitation to join him on the
ticket. A former three-term legislator, Balbina Herrera (52)
is a former anti-U.S. firebrand who was directly involved in
the riot that spoiled President George Bush's visit to Panama
in 1992. These days, Herrera is a "moderate," admits past
mistakes and says she has "grown up" politically. Hector
Aleman (48) was a public employee union activist who led
anti-U.S. demonstrations under the military regime. Both
Herrera and Aleman are good Embassy contacts. End summary.

The Minister of Housing
--------------

3. (SBU) In addition to being Minister of Housing, Balbina
Herrera is the PRD's deputy secretary general (number-two in
the party to President Torrijos). A legislator for fifteen
years (since 1990),Herrera became Panama,s first female
National Assembly president in 1995. Herrera held the
largely ceremonial PRD presidency during 1999-2002. Well
known for her fiery rhetoric and combative style (and for her
former anti-U.S. activism),Herrera decided not to run for
re-election to the National Assembly in 2004 and diligently
supported President Torrijos's successful campaign. A PRD
member since 1978 and once closely associated with Manuel
Noriega, Herrera held numerous PRD leadership positions
before serving in the legislature, as mayor of San Miguelito
(1984-89) and president of the Mayors' Association (1985-88).

Most Popular
--------------

4. (SBU) Local polls show Herrera as Panama,s most popular
cabinet member. (Comment: We have watched people stop, call
her name, even scream when they see her in the street. End
comment.) Since taking office as housing minister in
September 2004, Herrera has fully dedicated herself to
housing poor Panamanians. PRD legislators have confided to
Emboff that Herrera discretely meets regularly with three
other traditional and influential PRDers to analyze current
situations and evaluate President Torrijos's performance.

Charisma and Clout
--------------

5. (SBU) Herrera's vice presidential aspirations are widely
known. Herrera has expanded her traditional base of
supporters in San Miguelito, an impoverished over-crowded
district within Panama City, through her work on national
housing projects and through internal work as a PRD leader.
Likewise, Herrera appears in the media constantly as a
charismatic politician with strong convictions. During the
2004 campaign Herrera's was the principal voice on radio and
TV shows defending the PRD and Torrijos from opposition
attacks. Many believe that Herrera will use all of her
influence and political clout to persuade the PRD
presidential candidate to nominate her as his vice president.
If Torrijos maintains control of the PRD after the 2007
internal elections, Herrera will need Torrijos's blessing for
her aspirations. One major obstacle could be her rocky
relationship with the First Lady Vivian Torrijos, who is
known to strongly influence her husband.

The Minister of Government and Justice

--------------

6. (SBU) Hector Aleman is an up-and-coming politician who
emphasizes the importance of continuing democratization
within his party and the country as a whole. Like Balbina
Herrera, Aleman's aspirations to become a vice presidential
candidate under the PRD ticket are no secret. Although
he is an elected official (legislator),Aleman's poker-face
air and lack of charisma may not make him an appealing
national candidate, especially among younger voters, who make
up the majority of the electorate. There are rumors that
Aleman may eventually replace VP/Foreign Minister Lewis. The
rumors are somewhat odd, considering Aleman's lack of
international experience. Also, Aleman does not speak
English. If he did become foreign minister, travel demands
might prevent him from internal campaigning.

Up-And-Coming Politico
--------------

7. (SBU) Aleman has served as Minister of Government and
Justice since September 1, 2004. In addition to his cabinet
post, Aleman is the PRD's Second Deputy Secretary General and
served as Torrijos campaign coordinator for the May 2004
presidential race. He was a driving force behind the
National Assembly's approval of the PRD-sponsored
constitutional reform package passed in 2004 and ratified in

2005. Although re-elected as legislator representing a
district in Panama City, Aleman is on leave while he serves
as minister and rumors are that he will not return to the
Assembly unless he loses his cabinet post.

Good Contacts With Embassy, China
--------------

8. (SBU) A member of Martin Torrijos's &new8 PRD, Aleman
has worked closely with Embassy officials since taking office
but in the past he was known for taking anti-American
positions. On the other hand, in FY 2002 and again in FY
2003, Aleman declined to participate in several International
Visitor (IV) programs, alleging National Assembly and Party
obligations. As Minister of Government and Justice, Aleman
has cooperated with the Embassy. Aleman supports
establishing full diplomatic relations with the People's
Republic of China (PRC) and withdrawing the GOP's recognition
of Taiwan. Aleman has visited the PRC, has close ties to the
PRC's local Commercial Development Office and even boycotted
the visit of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian to the National
Assembly a few years ago when the PRD controlled it during
the Moscoso administration.
Dubious Reputation As A Political "Fixer"
--------------

9. (SBU) President Torrijos has relied on Aleman for
political damage control for social security reforms and for
his help in charting a political strategy to guide the
conclusion of an FTA with the United States. Many PRDers
blame Aleman for the GOP's mishandling of the social security
reform bill in 2005 and the subsequent five-week street
demonstrations and strike by construction workers, public
physicians, nurses and public teachers.

Comment
--------------

10. (SBU) Herrera is probably better placed within the party
than Aleman for the vice presidential nomination. She is
charismatic; he is not. She is charming; he is not. She is
more at ease with the media than Aleman. Most important,
PRDers are not blaming her for the government's political
mistakes. Potential presidential candidate (Panama City
mayor) Juan Carlos Navarro would not hesitate to name Herrera
his vice president. On the other hand, Aleman is closer to
potential candidate (VP/Foreign Minister) Samuel Lewis. At
the moment, Lewis looks like a better bet for the nomination
than Navarro, mainly because he is closer Torrijos. So, in
the end, Aleman may have better chances than Herrera to get
President Torrijos, blessing to become the PRD's vice
presidential candidate.

EATON