TROUBLED ADOLESCENCE FOR PANAMA'S RESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS PANAMA 002106

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN BTIO CASC MRS
SUBJECT: TROUBLED ADOLESCENCE FOR PANAMA'S RESIDENTIAL
TOURISM INDUSTRY

REF: A. PANAMA 317

B. PANAMA 319


1. (SBU). Panama's residential tourism industry is
struggling to maintain its momentum in the face of rising
prices, increased construction costs and potential excess
supply. According to Paul McBride, CEO of Panamanian real
estate marketing company Prima Panama, the selling price of
the average condominium unit under construction in Panama
City for the expatriate market is $289,000, 9% higher than
the median value of homes in the U.S. ($266,000). Panama
City high rises, partially spurred by speculation, may not
reach full occupancy. Incomplete sales create financial
exposure for the buyers, developers and the financial
institutions involved. Conversely, full occupancy would mean
unprecedented demand for city services and paralytic traffic
jams. Legal, labor, and environmental problems, and higher
material costs plague many developments in the interior
elongating build times. Panama's developers and government
are facing the difficult reality of delivering on their
marketing and advertising claims. Nonetheless, the marketing
machinery continues to accelerate. International Living's
held its biggest event ever in Panama October 18 to 21.
Approximately 90% of the 225 attendees were from the U.S.
Panama's tourism ministry (IPAT) plans to spend $43 million
to promote Panama over the next four years. END SUMMARY

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WHERE HAVE ALL THE DEALS GONE ?
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2. (U) Panama's expatriate driven residential tourism
industry is concentrated in Panama City, Boquete, and Bocas
del Toro. Additional developments are occurring along the
Pacific coast west of Panama City and into the Azuero
peninsula. According to Panama's Tourism Ministry (IPAT),
there are 161 buildings under construction in Panama City and
another 55 approved waiting to start construction. Panama
City's skyline is undergoing a remarkable transformation due
to high-rise construction. In the past 18 months, Panama
City prices have doubled from $1000 a square meter to $2000
for new properties with some high end developments reaching
$3000 a square meter.


3. (SBU) Media reports state there are currently seven major
residential developments and more than 25 smaller
developments in progress in the western area of Boquete.
With more than $20 million in development investment in
Boquete over the last three years, the total investment in
the area is expected to exceed $160 million. Amcit developer
Sam Taliaferro told Econoff the number of foreigners living
in Boquete is roughly 300, many of whom are living in Panama
part-time. Taliaferro stated there are up to 3000 home sites
available in the Boquete area, but it will take 15 years to
build these homes even if they were all sold today. Land
prices in Boquete have risen from between $2 to $8 a square
meter to between $50 and $100 in the last 10 years. Boquete
is also within sight of the Baru Volcano, an active volcano
currently being monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey
(septel).


4. (U) Three large developments are in progress in Bocas del
Toro, Isla Solarte (183 lots),Red Frog Beach (800 lots) and
Sunset Point (174 lots) with two more under consideration,
Bocas del Drago and a possible Decameron Resort. Red Frog
Beach, offers condominiums, town houses and beachfront homes
from $275k to $800k. Sunset Point is advertising $85,000 to
$350,000 per lot and building costs of $100 per square foot.
However, construction timeframes in Bocas del Toro equal or
exceed that of Boquete.

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SUPPLY COULD OUTPACE EXPATRIATE DEMAND
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5. (U) The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)
reported in August 2006 that 95% of America's 77 million baby
boomers do not have assets of any significant value. The top
5% control 52% of the financial assets held by this
generation. The slowdown in the U.S. housing market
threatens the ability of American retirees to depend on the
equity in their existing U.S. properties to meet their
commitments in Panama. Increased airfares and further
security measures may also impact the appeal of home
ownership or retirement too far from friends and family.
Ultimately, the expatriate retiree market is smaller than
industry boosters may portray and is price sensitive.


6. (U) According to Panama's immigration department, 759

Pensioner Visas were issued last year. About 70% were issued
to U.S. citizens (534),7.5% to Canadians (57),3.4% to UK
citizens (26),3.3% to Colombians (25),1.6% to Cubans (12)
and the remaining 14% to other countries (105). Pensioner
visas issued for the first six months of 2006, still show 70%
American (343),10% Western Europe (50),7% Canada (33),3%
UK (14),3%, Venezuela (14),and the remaining 6% to other
countries. Comment: The actual number of expatriate
property owners in Panama is probably higher as many people
do not spend the entire year here and visit under a tourist
visa instead. Nonetheless, the annual number of Americans
immigrating to Panama appears to be in the hundreds, not the
thousands. End comment.

7.(U) Prima Panama estimates that 60% to 70% of the Panama
City units sold to the expatriate market have been purchased
by speculators who make 5% to 10% down payments and
anticipate "flipping" these units prior to the due date of
the remaining balances. Prima Panama studies identified up
to 120 buildings actively in the sales cycle. Their research
indicates that over the next five years, up to 20,000
apartments are scheduled to be completed in Panama City.
(Note: a City of Miami Planning Department study stated
almost 12,000 apartments were build in the Miami metro area
between 1995 and 2006.) Prima Panama surveys further showed
that of the expatriates considering buying in Panama, only
18% said they wanted to live in Panama City. The rest
indicated a preference for either the mountains, the beach or
the islands.


8. (SBU) Comment: If all of the Panama City buildings in
construction and scheduled to be constructed proceed, excess
supply threatens the speculators ability to unload their
purchases in time. Speculators could walk away from their
down payments or unload these units at drastically reduced
prices. End Comment. Local realtors told Econoff that
expatriate apartment owners in Panama City who purchased in
the last three years now looking to resell at appreciated
prices have been unable to do so.

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IADB STUDY SLAMS RESIDENTIAL TOURISM INDUSTRY
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9. (U) A private study contracted by the Inter-American
Development Bank and partially leaked to the press in
June/July 2006, sharply criticized Panama's residential
tourism policies. The IADB study reportedly stated there was
no real local benefit and the development was damaging the
environment. The study noted the lack of urban planning and
regulation to manage the explosive growth. The mayor of
Bocas del Toro and leaders of the Ngobe Bugle and the Nocribo
comarcas (indigenous reservations) have asked Panama's
tourism ministry (IPAT) to suspend the granting of any
further concessions in their territory due to the lack of
urban planning (septel).


10. (U) The IADB study considers Panama's promotion of
residential tourism a mistake, noting the displacement of
Panamanians, including the indigenous, from their traditional
sources of subsistence for one time payoffs. Many low income
land owners throughout Panama are seduced into selling their
land for attractive prices but are too inexperienced to
properly invest this one time windfall. Once the money is
spent, the study suggests that these families find themselves
without alternative affordable housing or their traditional
livelihood.

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SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DISPUTES ON THE RISE
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11.(U) As predicted, the growing expatriate presence is
increasingly controversial (reftels). Traditionally a coffee
and flower growing region, Boquete now boasts virtually full
employment. However, many local Panamanian residents
complain of the higher prices for food and services as a
result of the influx of foreigners. Comment: Besides

providing employment, many of Panama's initial wave of high
energy expatriate retirees are also very community service
oriented. Local chapters of the Lions' Club, Rotary Club and
other homegrown associations are conducting school lunch
programs, donating computer equipment and raising money for
basic repairs and sanitation for the dilapidated public
schools in their district. End Comment.

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STILL A NICE PLACE TO VISIT
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12.(U) In August, the World Tourism Organization reported
Panama received an estimated 1 million visitors in 2005,
with an equal or greater number expected in 2006. According
to Panama's Tourism Minister Ruben Blades, foreigners visit
Panama to shop, as tourists/eco-tourists and part time
residents, in transit to other parts of Central and South
America and to conduct business related to the Canal, the
Colon Free Zone and Panama's financial district. Panama's
hotel industry announced $80 million in investment between
now and 2010 to support more affordable eco-tourism and an
influx of visitors related to the possible Canal expansion.
ARREAGA