CANADA COMFORTABLE WITH AFGHANISTAN COMPACT TEXT;

UNCLAS OTTAWA 000054

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

FOR SA AND WHA/CAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID AF CA CIDA FAC
SUBJECT: CANADA COMFORTABLE WITH AFGHANISTAN COMPACT TEXT;
PREPARING FOR LONDON CONFERENCE

REF: STATE 226670


1. (SBU) Summary: The GOC is comfortable with the current
version of the Compact, plans to continue its solid
commitment to Afghanistan (C$100 million/US$85 million in
FY2006) and is moving ahead with troop deployments. Canada
is committed to success in Afghanistan and constantly
monitors assistance levels. However, with federal elections
on January 23, no new policy or spending initiatives are
possible between now and the London conference. We believe a
high-level call from Washington this month urging additional
contributions would be counterproductive. End summary.


2. (SBU) In a December 12 meeting, Canadian Agency for
International Development (CIDA) Vice President for Asia Hau
Sing Tse confirmed that Canada's support for Afghanistan
remains strong. He said that "Afghanistan wants to make a
big splash" at the London conference, and that the GOC "would
begin strategizing" for the conference in early January. (GOC
officials confirm that process is underway.) Planning is
complicated by the election on January 23, as there may or
may not be a new Cabinet by January 31 and if Minister for
International Cooperation Aileen Carroll is replaced her
successor may not be able to travel so soon after being
appointed. The tentative plan, if the Minister is not able
to travel, is for Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Peter
Harder to lead Canada's delegation to London.


3. (SBU) The GOC came out early with strong support for
Afghanistan and has committed funds through FY2009.
Contributions this fiscal year (ending March 31) are at C$100
million (about US$85 million). A gradual drop-off in aid,
based on the assumption the Afghanistan would develop
increasing fiscal capability, was planned starting in FY2007,
with levels of C$80 million anticipated next year. Decisions
on whether those levels are adequate will be made as the
situation in Afghanistan evolves. The GOC remains strongly
committed to Afghanistan (a major troop deployment begins
February 1) and closely monitors needs. All of Canada's
pledged aid is disbursed on schedule, with most of it going
through the trust funds.


4. (SBU) A Foreign Affairs Canada counterpart says the GOC
is "pretty confident" with the current draft of the Compact
and had no comments to submit regarding the most recent
version. However, given the Canadian election no new policy
or major spending decisions can be made between now and the
conference. (Note: A call from Washingtion encouraging the
GOC to do more would before the conference, in our view,
indicate a counterproductive lack of faith in a strong
partner. End note.)

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DICKSON