LIANCOURT SURVEY: ANOTHER FLASHPOINT IN THE JAPAN SEA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OSAKA KOBE 000351

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EWWT PBST PHSA PREL KS JA
SUBJECT: LIANCOURT SURVEY: ANOTHER FLASHPOINT IN THE JAPAN SEA



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Observers in western Japan are making an
unfortunate public linkage between the ROKG maritime survey in the
disputed EEZ of the Liancourt Rocks and the DPRK's missile launches
of July 5, local time. Whether or not the DPRK deliberately timed
the launches to coincide with the ROK's timing for its controversial
maritime survey mission (as many Japanese in the area believe),the
coincidence of the missile shots and the ROK survey may have set
back local efforts to repair bilateral relations. Academics and
bureaucrats have been working under the radar to improve ties after
the Liancourt Rocks flare-up last year, and some claim that the
Takeshima Day affair was instigated from outside the prefecture.
Looking ahead, Shimane Prefecture risks exacerbating the already
tense situation further if it approves a maritime survey mission of
its own into South Korean territorial waters surrounding Ulleungdo
Island in August. END SUMMARY.

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Connecting the Dots Differently
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2. (SBU) Most observers have pointed to the connection between the
July 5 (JST) DPRK missile launches and the space shuttle Discovery
launch, or the Fourth of July celebrations in Washington. In the
coastal area of the Japan Sea closest to the disputed Takeshima
islands, people's attention is drawn instead to the coincidence of
North Korea's moves occurring at nearly the same time that a ROKG
survey ship and military escort enter the disputed EEZ near
Takeshima/Dokdo, or Liancourt, Rocks.


3. (SBU) Some tabloid TV programs in Osaka are already lumping the
missile launches and Liancourt EEZ survey together as violations of
Japanese sovereignty, and although hostility from North Korea has
been telegraphed over several weeks, the Osakan public's reaction to
South Korean actions was one of dismay and surprise--least not from
the large ethnic Korean community. The increased fear factor from
Taepodong and Nodong missiles landing in the Japan Sea has
exacerbated western Japanese unease regarding a Korean Peninsula
seemingly united in its aggressively anti-Japanese behavior. In
addition, the ROKG appears to have damaged ties with the GOJ by
refusing to give the Japanese prior official notification of the
survey. Numerous Korea watchers in Osaka and Shimane believe that
the biggest loser in the events of July 5 was the ROKG.

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Stormy Waters Ahead?
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4. (SBU) Public security officials and academics in Osaka claim the
DPRK chose to launch its missiles into the Japan Sea on the same day
that South Korea would reach Takeshima/Dokdo to conduct its maritime
survey of the disputed territory to further sow dissent between
Japan and the ROK. NOTE: These observers did not cite evidence to
back up their claim. END NOTE.


5. (SBU) There are indications that the ROKG's survey may have set
back efforts to rightside bilateral relations at the local level.
In mid-June, poleconoff was told of numerous below-the-radar
cultural exchanges and track two diplomacy projects by Shimane
Prefectural University and the prefectural government.

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Things Were Looking Up...
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6. (SBU) These contacts emphasized that the Takeshima Day issue was
not an example of "homegrown" nationalism in Shimane. They cited as
evidence the following: LDP prefectural assemblyman Hiromi Notsu,
credited with raising the issue initially (and suddenly),lacked
sufficient knowledge of Takeshima, doesn't represent that district,
and usually uses a different style of phrasing his questions in the
prefectural assembly. Local bureaucrats found Notsu's Takeshima Day
proposal suspiciously well-prepared, leading to the view that
Shimane was being set up to play the patsy in the territorial
dispute issue by an organization from outside Shimane. When asked
to speculate, one official stated his personal opinion that it could
have been LDP HQ, an individual politician in Tokyo, or a right wing
political organization from the capital.


7. (SBU) Associate Professor Yuji Fukuhara, a Korea expert, has been
working with the recently elected governor of North Gyeongsang
Province, who sought out Fukuhara as a partner to repair sister

OSAKA KOBE 00000351 002 OF 002


state relations with Shimane, but out of the public eye.


8. (SBU) As of June, Shimane contacts advised poleconoff to be
optimistic about rapproachement between Japan and the ROK, stating
that the forces for reconciliation were much stronger than the
others. On the Korean side, North Gyeongsang is said to be eager to
receive Japanese foreign direct investment for its IT industry
cluster, so at the local level, the Koreans were as eager to repair
ties as the reconciliation faction is in Shimane.

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... But Could Be Sinking Fast
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9. (SBU) However, in early July, poleconoff was informed that
Shimane Prefecture's General Affairs Department has started pushing
for an August maritime survey of Ulleung-do (60 km west of
Takeshima/Dokdo; part of ROK) as an academic research project.
Although opposed by bureaucrats in the prefecture's Culture and
International Affairs Division, the plans are still moving forward.
Shimane officials will meet on July 25 to decide when the survey
would occur in August. NOTE: It is not yet apparent whether Shimane
has notified either the GOJ or the ROKG about their survey plans.
END NOTE. Academics and International Affairs bureaucrats are
worried that such a survey will only serve to escalate tensions in
bilateral relations, running at cross purposes with numerous local
efforts to repair grassroots ties. The prefecture has until now
managed to maintain its policy separating territorial and cultural
exchange issues with respect to the ROK. Nonetheless, recent
provocations on both sides appear to be fraying the grassroots
safety net that has promoted rational discourse and a negotiated
solution to the territorial question.

RUSSEL