POLITICAL POWER IN THE RUN-UP TO ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NOUAKCHOTT 000993

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2016
TAGS: PINR PREL PGOV PHUM EAID KPAO MR
SUBJECT: POLITICAL POWER IN THE RUN-UP TO ELECTIONS
(C-AL6-01048)

REF: A. NOUAKCHOTT 979

B. NOUAKCHOTT 842

Classified By: Amb. Joseph LeBaron, Reasons 1.4(b)(d)

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(C) Key Points
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-- The political environment in Mauritania is constantly
changing, with political parties and coalitions regularly
forming and dissolving, and new presidential hopefuls
declaring their candidacy every week.

-- Little separates one party from the next. However, a
handful of parties and candidates have risen above the
milieu, and, at present, appear to be political front-runners.

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(C) Comments
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-- The November municipal and legislative elections will
almost certainly clarify those actors most likely to capture
the presidency in March 2007.

-- While opinions differ about the potential role of the
Military Council in the elections (septel),there is no
evidence to date that the council is backing any candidate or
party.

End Key Points and Comments.


1. (C) The political environment in Mauritania is constantly
changing, with political parties and coalitions regularly
forming and dissolving, and new presidential hopefuls
declaring their candidacy every week. Few political actors
have strong platforms, and little separates one party from
the next (see ref A. for a summary of all recognized
political parties and coalitions). However, a handful of
parties and candidates have risen above the milieu, and, at
present, appear to be political front-runners. The following
text summarizes these key players and attempts to offer some
insight into the presidential elections scheduled for March

2007. It will be necessary to adjust these observations as
March draws closer, particularly following the November
municipal and legislative elections which will almost
certainly clarify those actors most likely to capture the
presidency.

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THE MAJOR COALITION
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2. (C) The recently formed "Coalition of Forces for
Democratic Change (CFDC)," has quickly established itself as
the leading political party coalition, bringing together four
of the seven most influential parties in Mauritania. The
coalition also includes the largest following of Islamists
(including Jemil Ould Mansour and Moktar Mohamed Moussa),the
PMUC (the political party of the Knights of Change which led
several unsuccessful coups against former president Taya),
and FLAM Renovation (a breakaway wing of the exiled
Afro-Mauritanian opposition group FLAM).


3. (C) The CFDC has committed to working collectively to
prevent any candidates from the former regime from being
elected. Specifically, the group is concerned about the
influence of the "Republican Party for Democracy and Revival
(PRDR)" and the "Rally for Democracy and Unity (RDU)," which
together controlled the government under Taya.


4. (C) However, the CFDC's future is far from certain, as
many parties within the coalition have strong presidential
ambitions, and some parties (such as the "Mauritanian Party
for Union and Change (PMUC)") are struggling with internal
dissent.

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THE POLITICAL PARTIES TO WATCH
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5. (C) The former power brokers PRDR and RDU remain among the
strongest, wealthiest, and best organized political parties
in Mauritania. The two are reportedly in discussions to form
a coalition, however, many believe such an arrangement would
be made in secret, with the two parties privately supporting
the same "independent" presidential candidate. The need for
secrecy arises from the public's perception that these two
parties (particularly PRDR) were, and perhaps still are,
closely linked to former president Taya. If either group ran
a presidential candidate, the public could label them a
carryover from the Taya era, and the CFDC would also
certainly campaign against them. The public's tolerance for
PRDR/RDU candidates will likely be tested in the coming
November elections.


6. (C) The four most influential CFDC members include
"Gathering of Democratic Forces (RFD)," "Union for Force and
Progress (UFP)," "Popular Progressive Alliance (APP)," and
the "Mauritanian Party for Union and Change (PMUC)." PMUC
co-founder Mohamed Ould Cheikhna is currently the only
individual among the four parties to have declared his
candidacy for the presidency, however, many others are
expected to follow suite (including PMUC president Saleh Ould
Hanena).


7. (C) The remaining party of influence is the "Union for
Democracy and Progress (UDP)" headed by Naha Mint Mouknass,
the only female political party president. UDP is expected
to capture several Parliamentary seats, but not run a
presidential candidate (Mouknass is herself too young to run
for the presidency).

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THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
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8. (C) RFD's President Ahmed Ould Daddah (the brother of
Mauritania's first post-independence President) is the name
most often offered when discussing who will be the next
president. Daddah received 6.85 percent of the vote in the
2003 presidential elections, and while he has not publicly
announced his candidacy, he has privately said that he will
run. His party has attracted many new high-profile members
since the coup, including close friends and relatives of
Colonel Fal.


9. (C) Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi was the first independent
candidate to announce he was running for the presidency.
Abdallahi is seen by many as a viable alternative to Daddah,
as both men are respected former ministers with economic
backgrounds who come from important families and tribes.
Abdallahi is also married to a cousin of Colonel Fal and
Colonel Aziz. Some observers believe that PRDR and RDU will
secretly support Abdallahi's bid for president.

SIPDIS


10. (C) Ahmed Ould Abdallah, the Special Representative of
the UN Secretary General for West Africa, has also been
identified as a powerful presidential candidate, though he is
reportedly reluctant to run. Abdallah, who has spent most of
his professional life with the UN, is seen as honest and
articulate, but also as an outsider.


11. (C) Dehane Ould Ahmed Mahmoud, a retired colonel and
former Minister of Foreign Affairs, is seen as a viable
presidential candidate. With his military background and
friendship to Colonel Fall, Mahmoud is seen as an acceptable
candidate for the Military Council (and viewed as a potential
favorite by those who believe the Military Council will
attempt to sway the presidential outcome).


12. (C) Other names which have been offered for the
presidency include APP president Messaoud Ould Boulkheir and
PMUC president Saleh Ould Hanena. However, Boulkheir would
face significant resistance from Mauritanians unwilling to
support a Black Moor president; while Hanena, a former coup
leader, would be highly controversial (and likely
disagreeable to the existing power base, some of whom he
tried to unseat with his coup attempts).
Koutsis