AFRO-MAURITANIAN COALITION PESSIMISTIC ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NOUAKCHOTT 000313

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR EAID KPAO MR
SUBJECT: AFRO-MAURITANIAN COALITION PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
ELECTIONS

REF: NOUAKCHOTT 87

Classified By: Amb. Joseph LeBaron, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

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(C) Key Points
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-- In a meeting with PolOff March 13, Mohamed Ould Sidi Ould
Dellahi, President of the Afro-Mauritanian political party
coalition "Group of Parties for Change," said the coup did
not represent a significant change for Mauritania, nor would
elections bring about such a change.

-- "The same group that was in power before the coup is still
in power," Dellahi said, adding that this group will
influence the elections to ensure that "one of their own" or
someone who will "protect their interests" wins.

-- Dellahi said that the risk for civil war and internal
conflict following the elections was high, as expectations
for change among Afro-Mauritanians would not be realized.

-- Dellahi claimed that two men recently threatened to kill
him if he didn't stop calling for the return of refugees and
the protection of Afro-Mauritanians' human rights.

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(C) Comments
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-- Dellahi, a White Moor, is well-known for supporting
Afro-Mauritian issues, but is often extreme in his views.
While we do not agree with his gloom and doom assessment of a
coming civil war, his fears of "subtle" White Moor influence
on the electoral process are likely well-founded.

-- Dellahi's perspective also highlights the national
division between moderate and radical Afro-Mauritanian
political leanings.

End Key Points and Comments.


1. (U) On March 13 PollOff met with Mohamed Ould Sidi Ould
Dellahi, President of the "Group of Parties for Change," the
leading Afro-Mauritanian political party coalition, to
discuss the outlook for Afro-Mauritanians in the coming
elections.

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"ELECTIONS WON'T CHANGE A THING"
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2. (C) Dellahi began the meeting by stressing that the August
3 coup did not/not represent a significant change in the
Mauritanian power structure, nor would elections bring about
such a change. "The same group that was in power before the
coup is still in power," Dellahi said, adding that "the only
difference is that Taya is gone." Dellahi explained that the
coup was nothing more than "those with power becoming nervous
about Taya's management and hold over the country, and
deciding that their interests would be better served by
someone else."


3. (C) Dellahi predicted that this "power base" will
"influence" the elections to ensure that "one of their own"
or someone who will "protect their interests" will come to
power.


4. (C) According to Dellahi such influence will be subtle.
"By not allowing Afro-Mauritanian refugees to return, they
will ensure victory for White Moor candidates," he said, also
adding that "by not having public financing for political
parties, they will be able to use their significant wealth to
ensure that their own candidates win." "Their influence is
not in the open, but behind closed doors, and this influence
has already begun," Dellahi said, adding that "we have seen
it in many of the decisions the government has already made."

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POTENTIAL FOR CIVIL WAR

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5. (C) Dellahi said that the risk for civil war and internal
conflict following the elections was high, as expectations
for change would not be realized. "Many Afro-Mauritanians
believe that these elections will improve their lives,"
Dellahi said, adding that "on the current electoral path,
this simply won't happen, and when the people realize it
they'll respond."


6. (C) Dellahi stressed that civil war was not inevitable.
"If the government addresses the refugee issue and provides a
fair electoral environment for all citizens and parties, then
real change could be possible," Dellahi said. "If the people
feel that they at least have a voice, and the opportunity for
change, they will accept that."

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DEATH THREAT
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7. (C) Dellahi claimed that two men recently threatened to
kill him if he didn't stop calling for the return of refugees
and the enhanced protection of Afro-Mauritanians' human
rights. According to Dellahi, these men were sent by the
influential "power base" including the well-connected local
businessman Mohamed Hmayen Bouamatou. Dellahi explained that
he reported the incident to the local police, but that the
men were not arrested "because of the police's fear of
Bouamatou."

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APPRECIATION FOR US ROLE AND PLEA FOR HELP
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8. (C) Dellahi thanked PolOff for the embassy's positive
stance on the plight of Afro-Mauritanians. Specifically, he
cited the importance of the Ambassador's recent trip to
refugee camps in northern Senegal (reftel). "Ambassador
LeBaron's visit drew needed attention to the issue and will
make it more difficult for the current or following
government to ignore these people," Dellahi said.


9. (C) Dellahi concluded the meeting with a call for U.S.
assistance. "Without financial support, Afro-Mauritanian
political parties will not be able to effectively rally our
people together," Dellahi said, adding that "without
continued political pressure, this government will do little
to address Afro-Mauritanian issues." He repeated his fears
about civil war and internal conflict, adding that "for
elections and democracy to work here, we will need the help
of our democratic friends."

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THE COALITION
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10. (C) The Group of Parties for Change is a coalition of
four political parties: The Alliance for Justice and
Democracy (AJD),The Party for Liberty Equality and Justice
(PLEJ),The Mauritanian Labor Party (PTM),and The
Mauritanian Party for the Protection of the Environment
(PMDE). AJD and PLEJ are two of the three main
Afro-Mauritanian political parties. The third, The Popular
Progressive Alliance (APP),is not a member of the coalition.
While PTM and Dellahi's PMDE party are not technically
Afro-Mauritanian parties, both groups have a long history of
supporting the Afro-Mauritanian cause.
LeBaron