CYPRIOT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: DEJA VU ALL OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L NICOSIA 000762

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2021
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: CYPRIOT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: DEJA VU ALL OVER
AGAIN

REF: NICOSIA 708

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher; Reason
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Parliamentary elections on the Greek
Cypriot side on May 21 left the political landscape in the
south essentially unchanged. AKEL narrowly edged out DISY to
retain bragging rights as the largest political party, but
the two are now dead even in the House with 18 seats apiece.
President Papadopoulos' own DIKO turned in a strong showing
in terms of both percentages and seats. Other parties
considered hard-line on the Cyprus issue -- including EDEK
and EVROKO -- also did well. The only clear loser in the
election was Michael Papapetrou's United Democrats.
Papapetrou's defeat means the loss in both the House and the
National Council of the Greek Cypriot side's loudest and most
consistent advocate for reunification and reconciliation.
Rumors are already circulating in Nicosia of an imminent
cabinet re-shuffle that would include "big names" at the MFA
and Interior Ministry. Similar rumors in the past, however,
have proven to be just that. Papadopoulos comes out of these
elections with a relatively strong political hand to play as
he prepares for both a possible confrontation with Turkey in
the EU this fall and the Presidential campaign in 2008. End
Summary.

And the Winner Is...
--------------


2. (SBU) As expected (reftel),the left-wing AKEL party
narrowly edged out the opposition DISY party in the May 21
parliamentary elections with 31.16% of the vote as compared
to 30.33% for DISY. While the communists, therefore,
retained bragging rights as the largest political party on
the island, the results translated into the same number of
seats (18) for AKEL and DISY. This represents the loss of
one seat for DISY and two seats for AKEL. For both parties,
the results represent a loss of approximately 3.5% from the
2001 elections. President Papadopoulos' own DIKO party
finished third, but polled at the high end of expectations
(17.91%) and picked up two more seats in the House.

Below are the final results. The numbers in brackets
represent the change from the 2001 elections.

AKEL 31.16% (-3.55%) 18 seats (-2)
DISY 30.33% (-3.67) 18 seats (-1)
DIKO 17.91% ( 3.08) 11 seats ( 2)
EDEK 8.91% ( 2.40) 5 seats ( 1)
EVROKO 5.73% ( 0.58%) 3 seats ( 1)
Greens 1.95% (-0.03%) 1 seat (no change)
United Dems. 1.56% (-1.03) no seat (-1)
Free Citizens 1.22% (n/a)
EURODI 0.44% (n/a)

Emblematic of the lackluster campaigns and the lack of
enthusiasm surrounding these elections, the level of
abstentions and blank ballots was unusually high. Although
voting is mandatory in Cyprus, nearly 11% of the electorate
stayed home. An additional 2.27% cast blank ballots. Both
abstentions and blank ballots are simply discounted in
computing the allocation of seats.

The Big Winners
--------------


3. (C) The big winners in the election were the parties that
opposed the Annan Plan in the 2004 referendum: AKEL, DIKO,
EDEK, and European Democracy (EVROKO). Although they failed
to unseat AKEL and claim the largely symbolic title of
"largest party," DISY supporters will be pleased that they
polled above the psychologically significant 30% and that
they are now tied with the communists at 18 seats apiece.
DIKO did not do as well as the party faithful had hoped at
the beginning of the campaign, but Papadopoulos will be
pleased at the gains in terms of both percentage and seats.
EDEK substantially exceeded most observers' expectations and
EVROKO posted similarly strong results. The Greens held on
to what they had, but Perdikes and his supporters are
undoubtedly disappointed with what they will see as a missed
opportunity to move beyond the margins of Cypriot politics.
The only unvarnished loser from May 21 are the United
Democrats and Michael Papapetrou. The failure of the United
Democrats to secure a parliamentary seat means the loss of
one of the loudest voices on the Greek Cypriot side in
support of reunification and reconciliation. The United
Democrats are not only out of the House; the party also loses
its seat on the National Council. In the wake of the United
Democrats' poor showing, Papapetrou announced that he was
stepping down as leader. The party's future is uncertain.


4. (SBU) At the candidate level, there are a number of new
faces on the scene -- including the omnipresent face of the
President's son, Nicholas Papadopoulos. Former government
spokesman Kypros Chrysostomides secured a seat running on the
AKEL ticket in Nicosia. Meanwhile, some well-known
politicians are out of the House, including Katie Clerides
and Antonis Karas from DISY, Nicos Pittokopititis from DIKO
and Stella Mishialouli from AKEL.

More Rumors of a Reshuffle
--------------


5. (C) Even before the voting was completed, the political
cognoscenti in Nicosia were speculating about the likelihood
of a near-term cabinet reshuffle. The rumor mill holds that
only Lillikas (Commerce and Industry),Sarris (Finance),
Georghiades (Education) and Mavronicolas (Defense) are
"safe." There are as many ideas about who might be in line
for a particular job as there are commentators. One of the
more persistent rumors is that Lillikas might move over to
the Foreign Ministry as part of a broad re-shuffle. Interior
Minister Christou, it is rumored, may be interested in
running for mayor of Limassol. There have been numerous
reports of imminent cabinet reshuffles over the past three
years. All of them have come to naught. The only one who
can say with any certainty what will happen on this score in
the wake of the parliamentary elections is Papadopoulos
himself.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Papadopoulos comes out of the these elections with a
relatively strong political hand to play as he prepares for a
possible confrontation with Turkey in the fall over the issue
of Cypriot access to Turkish ports and airports. The Greek
Cypriot public generally supports the President's handling of
the Cyprus issue and that confidence is reflected in the
outcome of the May 21 balloting. AKEL is not entirely
comfortable in its relationship with the President, but the
party leadership is currently under no pressure from its own
rank-and-file to rethink is support for the government. AKEL
is at some risk, however, of losing what little leverage it
might still have over the President. Looking ahead to
Presidential elections in 2008, Papadopoulos seems well on
his way towards building a coalition of supporters that could
put him into a second-round of balloting even without AKEL's
backing.
SCHLICHER