TURKISH CYPRIOT CENSUS UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE MUCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L NICOSIA 000643

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2021
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM CY
SUBJECT: TURKISH CYPRIOT CENSUS UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE MUCH
CLARITY


Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Schlicher; Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Although authorities enforced a strict
13-hour curfew to improve prospects for an accurate count,
lingering questions about the reliability of the Turkish
Cypriot census on April 30 are likely to undercut the utility
of what was -- by local standards -- an enormously complex
undertaking. The most serious problem seems to have been the
relative inexperience of the 5,800 census takers, many of
them college students hired for the one-day event. The
Director of the "State Planning Organization" (SPO) admitted
to us that her office would need to develop a system for
counting those who had been overlooked in the April 30 count.
The big question, of course, is whether anyone outside of
the "TRNC" will accept the results of the census as accurate
and legitimate. Greek Cypriot officials got out of the
blocks early in publicly dismissing the value of the Turkish
Cypriot census. Having taken this step, however, it will be
extremely difficult for Turkish Cypriot authorities to agree
-- as the Greek Cypriot side is demanding -- that the
question of a census should be included on the agenda for
UN-sponsored technical talks. End Summary.


2. (SBU) As planned, Turkish Cypriot authorities enforced a
strict curfew from 5:00 am until 6:00 pm on April 30 so that
the "State Planning Organization" (SPO) could conduct a
general census. Police charged at least 21 people with
violating the mandatory curfew. Approximately 5,800 staff
(mostly college students) fanned out across the "TRNC" with
the goal of an actual count of all those present in the
north. Even tourists were restricted to their hotels so that
they could be included in the count. In addition to the raw
numbers, SPO census takers had a list of 61 questions, with
each staff member required to survey approximately 20 homes.
Preliminary results should be available within a few days,
but "Prime Minister" Ferdi Soyer told diplomats at an April
26 briefing that it would take at least six months to prepare
a thorough analysis of the data.


3. (C) It is already clear, however, that execution of the
census survey was far from flawless. Turkish Cypriot
newspapers reported that the SPO failed to find a substantial
(but unknown) number of people, even though it had extended
the count beyond the 6:00 pm deadline. Some residents of
Nicosia and Famagusta reportedly called the SPO offices to
complain that they had not been counted. SPO Director Busa
Erozan admitted to us on May 2 that there had been some
problems, but she expected that there would be some
announcement as early as May 3 regarding special procedures
for those overlooked in the initial count. Erozan also noted
that SPO had not yet counted the Turkish military forces
present in Cyprus. This would likely take another couple of
days.


4. (C) Soyer's Private Secretary, Erkut Sahali, downplayed
the problems reported in the press. Organizers, he insisted,
had allowed for a margin-of-error of 0.2%. Most of the error
rate could be attributed to the construction of new
residences that had not yet been recorded in the municipal
records. Ozlem Oguz, the Central Census Controller for the
Morphou region, agreed that the final results would be fairly
accurate, at least with respect to establishing the total
number of Turkish Cypriots and the number of Turkish
settlers. Other statistical data collected may not prove as
useful, however, as the inexperienced census officers often
did not handle the questionnaires professionally. There were
not enough census takers to handle the volume. For this
reason, she believed, the SPO had missed a significant number
of houses and had failed to solicit the kind of detailed
information necessary for the forms to be truly useful.
Moreover, the "TRNC's" tardy request for the Council of
Europe to provide observers for the census exercise could
even serve to emphasize the procedural shortcomings on
display.


5. (SBU) Meanwhile, Greek Cypriots were quick to reject the
exercise altogether. Government Spokesman Yiorgos Lillikas
maintained that the Turkish Cypriot census was of no value.
The Greek Cypriot side, he noted, wanted this issue to be
discussed at the technical talks being organized under UN
auspices. To be valid, the census itself would have to be
conducted in the presence of observers from the EU and other
international organizations. House President and AKEL leader
Christofias criticized the Turkish Cypriot refusal to hold
the census under UN auspices and dismissed the April 30 count
as "unreliable." In their editorials, Greek Cypriot

newspapers charged that the Turkish Cypriot census was
primarily aimed at legitimizing the presence of Turkish
settlers.


6. (C) Comment: Although it seems a simple enough exercise,
the idea of a census on the Turkish Cypriot side is
politically-charged and inherently controversial. The big
question is whether outsiders -- and in particular Greek
Cypriots, the UN, and the EU -- will be ready to accept the
results of the April 30 count as representing a legitimate
and reasonably accurate approximation of the north's
population. This seems highly unlikely. Having taken this
step, however, it will be equally difficult for the Turkish
Cypriots to agree that there is a need to put the question of
a census onto the agenda for the technical committees. Their
argument is likely to be that the April 30 headcount makes
this a moot point. We would not expect the Greek Cypriot
side to agree, and it will be very difficult for third
parties to say that the exercise was so credible that the
questions attendant to demographics in the north have been
resolved by the census.
SCHLICHER