LOCAL ELECTIONS A DRAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 002040

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL CY
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS A DRAW

REF: A. NICOSIA 2016

B. NICOSIA 1964

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Schlicher, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The governing coalition and opposition
alike claimed victory in the December 17 municipal elections.
The alliance )- comprising AKEL, DIKO, and EDEK )- won
mayorships in five major Cyprus cities, while opponent DISY
triumphed in smaller municipalities and increased its take of
city council seats. Sunday's biggest winner was undoubtedly
AKEL's Eleni Mavrou, who prevailed in Nicosia despite
pre-election polling placing her third in the race. Although
municipal elections results historically have not proven a
foolproof predictor for subsequent presidential races, it is
difficult to see Tassos Papadopoulos's re-election chances
hurt by the December 17 draw. END SUMMARY.

Breaking Down the Results
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2. (U) In terms of total mayorships won, 18 of 33, the
coalition actually saw a drop from 2001, when the then-new
AKEL-DIKO-EDEK alliance won 22. In the December 17 race,
however, it delivered the biggies: capital Nicosia, second
city Limassol, Larnaca, Paphos, and the exile municipality of
Kyrenia. AKEL-affiliated coalition candidates triumphed in
seven of the 12 races they contested, while DIKO members
batted 1.000, winning the seven races they ran. EDEK would
seem the coalition stepchild, since its standard-bearers won
only two of six races. It, too, is claiming victory,
however, arguing that the party's vote haul did not dip from
May 2006, when Cyprus last held parliamentary elections.


3. (U) Right-wing opposition DISY elected 11 mayors, a huge
jump from five in 2001. Most notably, DISY inked wins in
exile municipality Famagusta and in Yermasoyia, both
traditionally AKEL strongholds. Independent candidates won
the remaining Cypriot municipalities.


4. (U) As of December 18, voting officials had not published
official results for municipal and town council races, in
which parties must submit individual candidate lists (no
coalitions allowed.) Preliminary tabulations, however, show
that DISY polled five percent more than it had in the May
parliamentary elections, winning it the title of Cyprus's
most-voted party. Exit polls attributed the gains to success
in pulling EUROKO voters )- who had abandoned DISY before
the May race )- back to the flock. As to coalition results
at the council level, the parties' combined take remained
steady, but, individually, AKEL lost and DIKO won small
numbers.

AKEL wins the battle of Nicosia
--------------


5. (SBU) With her surprise victory, AKEL MP and one-time
ardent Annan Plan backer Eleni Mavrou becomes the first woman
and first AKEL mayor of Nicosia. Recent polling had shown
her in third place (Ref A),barely able to muster fifty
percent of AKEL voters to her candidacy. Analysts attributed
Mavrou's last-minute rise to AKEL enforcing party discipline
and deploying its ranks on a door-to-door campaign.
President Papadopoulos's recent lobbying likely helped
somewhat, although exit polls showed that only 30 percent of
his DIKO party voters cast Mavrou votes.


6. (SBU) Visibly relieved with the results, AKEL General
Secretary Demetris Christofias hailed her win as proof that

SIPDIS
"everything is possible" for AKEL. In her first statement,
Mavrou pledged to become "a nuisance to the central
government" by claiming, together with all other mayors, more
political and economic power for local governments.

... and Limassol, but loses Famagusta
--------------


7. (SBU) The success of AKEL in Limassol looks more a
victory for former Interior Minister Andreas Christou than an
endorsement for the party. Local-boy-made-good Christou was
fighting for his political survival, in June having resigned
from Papadopoulos's cabinet. Like Mavrou, Christou's
pro-Annan stance had left him unpopular with coalition-mates
DIKO and EDEK. Moreover, his opponent, DISY-backed Eleni
Theocharous, enjoyed support not only from her own party but
from the sectors of the coalition, based on her staunch
opposition to the Annan Plan. Nonetheless, Christou scored a
decisive victory with 55 percent of votes cast.


NICOSIA 00002040 002 OF 002



8. (SBU) The election of DISY-sponsored Alexis Galanos as
mayor of Famagusta marked the first time a non-AKEL candidate
had won this race. A former president of the Cypriot
Parliament and a founding member of DIKO, the 66-year-old
Galanos had retired from politics several years ago due to a
turbulent relationship with the leadership of his party.
Sophisticated and well-connected, Galanos offered a more
appealing choice to Famagusta refugees, who hoped to find in
him a more effective representative for their city in
international fora.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The success of the government coalition parties in
this election bodes well for their continued cooperation up
to the February 2008 presidential election. Opponents had
predicted a crisis in government, had AKEL's pro-Annan,
high-profile candidates lost Nicosia and Limassol. Their
performance, however, would seem to dash all hopes for such
an outcome. Further, DISY's increase in electoral strength
has little net value, since its continuing "isolation"
dampens any realistic hope to win in 2008. Its future
presidential fortunes now lie in peeling EDEK from the
three-party alliance, a dim prospect at best, or in hoping
that internal tensions will divide DIKO into pro-Papadopoulos
and pro-Kyprianou camps.


10. (C) New Nicosia Mayor Mavrou's natural disposition is
toward cooperation with the north Nicosia municipality as a
means of moving closer to overall reunification of the
island. We will certainly encourage these instincts, as we
are doing with the new mayor in the north. That said, Mavrou
will have to contend with a party leadership whose overall
interest in maintaining the national coalition will certainly
outweigh its interest in cooperation across the Green Line.
Schlicher