TURKISH CYPRIOT OPPOSITION ELECTS NEW LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000203

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU CY
SUBJECT: TURKISH CYPRIOT OPPOSITION ELECTS NEW LEADER

REF: A. 05 NICOSIA 1869


B. 05 NICOSIA 1465

C. LIBBY-INGMANSON EMAIL (12/09/2005)

Classified By: Ambassador R. Schlicher, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The National Unity Party (UBP) has elected
Nicosia "MP" Huseyin Ozgurgun (see bio below) to lead the
party, which is the second largest Turkish Cypriot political
party and the north's main opposition formation. Ozgurgun
represents a new, young face for his party -- which was
thrown out of office in 2003 after over two decades in power,
and has since been unable to shake the image of a reactionary
clique of corrupt old men. Ozgurgun must now focus on the
daunting task of reversing his party's fortunes by June, when
Turkish Cypriots go to the polls to fill two empty
"parliamentary" seats and vote on all of the "TRNC's" mayors
and city councils. The UBP's success or failure in these
elections will reflect on more than just Ozgurgun's
leadership; a resurgent nationalist opposition could spell
trouble for pro-settlement "President" Talat and his CTP.
END SUMMARY.

ADRIFT, THE UBP GETS A NEW RUDDER
--------------


2. (U) The north's main opposition grouping, the nationalist
UBP, has elected Nicosia "MP" Huseyin Ozgurgun as party
president. The 40-year-old Ozgurgun emerged from a crowded
pack of dark-horse candidates after Dervis Eroglu's heir
apparent, Salih Miroglu, died unexpectedly a few weeks before
he was to have taken over the top job (ref a). Ozgurgun
defeated former "FM" and fellow Nicosia "MP" Tahsin
Ertugruloglu by 540 votes to 410 at the UBP's February 11
Party Congress, putting to an end several months of
uncertainty that began with the resignation of party leader
and former "PM" Dervis Eroglu in September 2005 (ref b).


3. (SBU) The party's leadership crisis dates back to December
2003, however, when the pro-settlement CTP upset the
long-ruling UBP in legislative elections that brought Mehmet
Ali Talat to power as "PM." Subsequent Turkish Cypriot polls
-- including the April 2004 Annan referendum and Talat's
April 2005 knock-out defeat of Eroglu for the "TRNC
presidency" -- have been unmitigated disasters for the UBP.
The party, which opposed the Annan Plan and campaigned in
favor of a harder line vis-a-vis the Greek Cypriots, has
appeared increasingly out of step with Turkish Cypriot public
opinion, and no longer benefits from the political and
material support it enjoyed from Ankara prior to the AKP
government. With the directionless party foundering in the
polls, the graying Eroglu's decision to step down and make
way for a "new generation" was universally welcomed inside
the UBP as the only way to start winning elections again.

OUT WITH THE OLD, IN WITH THE LESS OLD
--------------


4. (C) Ozgurgun's election has exposed serious divisions
within the party over the way ahead, however. Ertugruloglu
(as well as other candidates like Irsen Kucuk, the "Tahsin
Lite" figure who eventually supported him) unapologetically
advocated a hard right turn. Stressing that Turkish Cypriot
support for the Annan Plan had failed to deliver an end to
the north's "isolation," Ertugruloglu advocated a more
vigorous defense of "TRNC" sovereignty as a response to the
failed "promises" and unmet obligations of the international
community toward the Turkish Cypriots. Ozgurgun, however,
took a more nuanced line, insisting that the UBP needs to
"respect the will" of the 65 percent of Turkish Cypriots who
voted "yes" to Annan, and suggesting that the UBP must also
shake off the image of corrupt cronyism it earned over
decades in power by developing a more business-friendly,
"center-right" message. At the same time, Ozgurgun sought to
burnish his own nationalist credentials by actively
challenging the controversial property restitution law
recently passed by the CTP "government" (ref c).


5. (C) Ozgurgun's victory, however, seems less due to
ideology than to personality and electoral calculus. Many
UBP supporters recognized that the fire-brand Ertugruloglu
was "too radical" to appeal to most mainstream voters -- and
might leave the party even worse off than it had been under
the uninspiring Eroglu. At the same time, the young,
athletic Ozgurgun seemed to present at once a more appealing
face to local voters (scoring higher than Tahsin in 2005
legislative elections) and to the outside world (he is one of
two Turkish Cypriot representatives at the Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe, where he is by all
accounts well respected). While many UBPers may sympathize
with Tahsin's angry rhetoric, they appeared to feel that

NICOSIA 00000203 002 OF 003


Ozgurgun stood a better chance of helping their party at the
ballot box.


6. (C) The most important factor in Ozgurgun's victory,
however, was probably the support of Eroglu. Although no
longer a credible candidate for "national" office, Eroglu
still maintains significant influence over the party's
grass-roots members, many of whom owe their positions as
Party Congress delegate, "MP," or city councilman to Eroglu.
UBP insiders say Eroglu urged his allies to vote for
Ozgurgun, and that they were happy to oblige -- partly as a
way to soothe their guilt over pressing Eroglu to step aside
in the first place. This has led to speculation that
wet-behind-the-ears Ozgurgun may end up being a puppet of
Eroglu, who remains in "parliament" and could continue to run
the party, Lee Kwan Yew-style, from behind the scenes.

JUNE ELECTIONS: OZGURGUN'S LITMUS TEST
--------------


7. (SBU) With municipal elections -- as well as by-elections
to fill two empty "parliamentary" seats -- due in June,
Ozgurgun must immediately take to the hustings for his party.
The UBP's impressive grass-roots organization is planning to
mount a municipal campaign in every district, and with two
open seats in "parliament," the party could theoretically
emerge in a position to oust the current CTP-led coalition of
"PM" Ferdi Soyer. But the chances of such a sweep appear
slim.


8. (C) For one thing, the UBP does not have its hands on the
levers of power and cannot dole out pre-election goodies to
win support as it did in the past. Pragmatic Turkish Cypriot
voters are less inclined to support a party they perceive to
be corrupt if they are not getting a piece of the action
themselves. Fresh blood at the top may help counter this
image, but the party continues to poll very poorly among
young swing voters despite its handsome new leaders.


9. (C) Furthermore, divisions between the UBP's radical and
pragmatic wings have not healed and will continue to hamper
efforts to articulate a coherent alternative to the CTP's
pro-solution platform. Disappointment over Talat's failure
to deliver an end to Turkish Cypriot "isolation" -- as well
as frustration over domestic issues like public sector pay
raises -- "will only get us so far," Ozgurgun confided to us.
He also noted that the party is having trouble finding
candidates to run in June. UBP needs volunteers who are at
once personally electable, willing to toe a vaguely
nationalist line, and not already in office or with some
other party. Such people are as rare as hen's teeth in the
limited north Cyprus talent pool.


10. (C) With so little time to overcome these problems, few
observers expect the UBP under Ozgurgun to do more than tread
water in June's elections. If the party can keep most of the
municipalities it already controls -- or even pick up a few
-- the election will be a success and help cement Ozgurgun's
position as leader. Wresting one of the "big three" cities
(Nicosia, Famagusta, or Kyrenia) from CTP control or winning
one of the "parliamentary" seats would be much more
difficult. But if Ozgurgun can manage either feat, his
fortunes as leader would be boosted further.


11. (C) If UBP suffers further reverses, however, Ozgurgun
could well be replaced. Another party congress is due in
December (this weekend's gathering was an interim meeting to
elect a replacement to serve out the remainder of Eroglu's
term as party president),and members may want to eject their
new leadership if there is no electoral good news. In this
case, another radical-vs.-pragmatic showdown would be
unavoidable and could lead to an open schism.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) The UBP leadership contest is more than just a
side-show soap opera. The lack of an effective opposition
has meant that the CTP "government" has enjoyed an
unnaturally long honeymoon -- despite growing public
frustration with "PM" Soyer's domestic performance and
"President" Talat's failure to deliver the goods on
"isolation" and the Cyprus problem. If Ozgurgun can whip the
UBP into shape and do well at the ballot box, the
pro-solution CTP would face serious difficulty. A
reinvigorated nationalist opposition could prompt Talat and
Soyer to cover their right flank by staking out a harder line
on the Cyprus problem and/or driving a tougher bargain on
confidence-building measures like Ledra Street or the
Committee on Missing Persons. END COMMENT.


NICOSIA 00000203 003 OF 003


BIOGRAPHY OF HUSEYIN OZGURGUN
--------------


13. (C) Huseyin Ozgurgun was born in Nicosia in 1965. He
graduated from Ankara University's Faculty of Political
Science in 1988 and later did course work in English and
management at Cambridge. He is an avid athlete who has
competed in amateur track-and-field events abroad, and plays
basketball, volley ball, tennis, and soccer on the "TRNC
national" teams. Ozgurgun began his political career in the
center-right DP of Serdar Denktash -- but quit the party
after separating from his wife, Serdar's sister-in-law, and
joined the UBP. Now divorced, Ozgurgun has been conducting a
quiet romance with a parliamentarian from Andorra whom he met
at the Council of Europe's Parliamentary Assembly -- where he
has served as one of two Turkish Cypriot party
representatives since 2004. He reportedly has good contact
with his two children from his marriage. Ozgurgun was
elected to "parliament" three times on the UBP ticket (1998,
2003, 2005),becoming party SYG and Dervis Eroglu's heir
apparent as party leader after the death of Salih Miroglu in
November 2005. Ozgurgun is a close Embassy contact, and was
selected as an IV program participant in 2005 (although his
new duties as party leader may make it difficult for him to
schedule his participation).


14. (C) Ozgurgun is a gregarious fellow, whose athletic good
looks add to his charisma. At 40, however, he is much
younger than most other leading Turkish Cypriot politicians
and can seem like a callow, johnny-come-lately compared to
many of them. While clearly no fool, Ozgurgun does not
project the same image of intellectual sophistication as some
of his rivals. Nonetheless, he is an effective politician
who can quickly read his audience and calibrate his message
to a variety of situations -- he is as at ease hobnobbing
with European parliamentarians in Strasbourg as he is
campaigning in peasant villages in the Karpass. It is too
early to tell which of these instincts will prove stronger,
and whether as leader he will take the UBP down a
center-right reformist path or stick close to its reactionary
nationalist roots. He speaks passable English.
SCHLICHER