CYPROB POLITICS, NOT ISSUES, DOMINATE MUNICIPAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 001964

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: CYPROB POLITICS, NOT ISSUES, DOMINATE MUNICIPAL
ELECTIONS RUN-UP


1. SUMMARY: Greek Cypriots head to the polls December 17 to
elect mayors, municipal councils, and, for the first time,
school board members. Other than vague demands for greater
autonomy from Nicosia, issues have taken a back seat to
politics in the months-long elections run-up. Garnering the
majority of media coverage are battles amidst the governing
coalition -- composed of the EDEK, DIKO, and AKEL parties --
over mayoral candidate selection for Cyprus's largest cities.
Experts lament that such negotiations essentially anoint
favored nominees, since combined the parties control
two-thirds of registered voters. Historically, however,
personalities, not party allegiance, drive municipal races,
presenting opportunities for opposition candidates and
independents. Opinions are divided over the significance of
the municipal campaign: some claim victory at the local
level portends greater success in the presidential elections
fourteen months hence, while others argue little linkage
exists. In addition to this overview, Post will offer
details and predictions for key city races Septel. END
SUMMARY

--------------
Election Fatigue Looks Certain
--------------


2. 2006 has proven a tiring year, elections-wise, with a
Parliamentary race occurring in June and ecclesiastical
elections to choose the Cypriot Archbishop concluding in
November. On December 17, Greek Cypriots again trudge to the
polls. Up for grabs are 33 mayorships (24 in the
government-controlled areas and nine north of the Green
Line),city council slots in those municipalities, and 466
village elder slots ("kinotarhes" in Greek, "Mukhtars" in
Turkish) and corresponding community boards. For the first
time since Cyprus won independence, voters will choose
municipal school boards (although, with curriculum dictated
by the Ministry of Education and Culture, their power appears
scant). Another first, as a result of Cyprus's 2004
accession to the European Union, non-Cypriot EU citizens may
cast ballots December 17 and can even stand for election in
all but mayoral races. According to Ministry of Interior
statistics, these EU "green card" holders comprise
approximately one percent of registered voters.

--------------
What They Are, What They Do
--------------


3. As one might expect of an island of one million
residents, the political system of Cyprus leans heavily
toward centralization, not federalism. Unlike in the United
States, for example, Cypriot municipalities and villages do
not control schools, police, emergency services, nor
hospitals. Like U.S. counterparts, however, their
responsibilities include road construction and maintenance,
sanitation, and zoning enforcement. Property taxes represent
local governments' greatest funding source, followed by
national government transfers and user fees (parking meters,
parking fines, and the like.) Larger municipalities can
issue bonds for capital improvements; many, including
Nicosia, are heavily indebted and have turned to the central
government for relief.


4. Local elections first occurred in colonial Cyprus after
the outbreak of World War II; Communist AKEL, the nation's
oldest and largest party, dominated. Colonial administrators
would clamp down on all forms of electoral activity during
the subsequent struggle for Cypriot independence, but the
birth of the Republic of Cyprus in 1960 brought renewed
politicking and elections at all levels. Once Turkish
Cypriots withdrew from all government institutions in
response to heavy intercommunal fighting in 1963-64, however,
the Greek Cypriots remaining in power altered the status quo.
For over twenty years, Nicosia appointed mayors, councilmen
and village elders, until Parliament in 1986 passed
legislation breaking the RoC's stranglehold on power.

--------------
An Election Day Primer
--------------


5. Over 500,000 are expected to cast ballots December 17,
MoI Director for Elections Demetris Demetriou informed
PolChief November 6. Voting was mandatory for all Greek
Cypriots over 18 and for registered, non-Cypriot EU citizens
residing on the island. The latter list held 4,000 names;
most hailed from Greece or the UK. Non-Cypriots might even
run for council or school board seats, Demetriou noted,
although their chances of victory looked remote. Candidates
had to announce their intention to run by November 17.


6. Voters in municipalities would file three separate
ballots, Demetriou continued: one for mayor, one for the
city council, and one for the school board. Regarding the
latter, multi-seat contests, Cyprus employed a modified
candidate-list system in which voters selected both their
preferred party and their favored individuals within it.
Such a system was more democratic than a straight candidate
list, where parties, not voters, rank-ordered candidates.
"Refugees" -- those Cypriots who fled south to the
RoC-controlled areas in 1974, plus their descendants -- could
vote in both their city of domicile and their original,
now-"occupied" municipality.


7. Election preparations were proceeding smoothly, Demetriou
offered, although he expected minor difficulties in smaller
villages, where residence requirements for candidacies
sometimes presented problems. Parties and nominees generally
respected electoral laws, he contended, and voter fraud was
rare in Cyprus. To illustrate, Demetriou bragged that the EU
had dispatched an observer mission before the May 2006
Parliamentary elections. The team left before the vote,
however, seeing no signs of malfeasance and no need to
remain. Under current RoC electoral law, no polls may be
published after December 10 and all campaigning must conclude
December 15. One are which ought to see reform was campaign
finance,Demetriou thought. Currently the law set an
asurdly low limit for spending on hic al prtes(and
their electoral overseers) ignored. Efforts to revise the
law and ratchet upward the finance caps had failed.


8. Demetriou expected a hectic day. The elections required
10,000 workers to man 1,800 voting stations island-wide,
provide security, tally votes and announce results. He
placed the cost at 2.5 million Cyprus Pounds ($5.5 million).
This would be no high-tech tour de force -- in rural areas
especially, voters feared tabulators and touch-screens,
preferring paper and pen. The MoI was pushing Parliament to
amend the electoral law to keep the polls open an extra hour,
figuring that completing the third ballot, for school boards,
would increase the average time required to vote.
Regardless, Demetriou expected the first results to become
available just 30 minutes after closing time.

--------------
The Run-Up to E(lection)-Day
--------------


9. Media have paid minimal attention to candidates'
platforms and party promises during the pre-electoral period.
All in the race have chanted demands for additional
"aftodiikisy" (autonomy) from Nicosia, but put little flesh
on that bone. Of greater interest to newswriters here has
proven the candidate selection process. In late summer, for
example, pundits questioned whether Cyprus's current
governing coalition -- an ideologically-disparate
agglomeration of nationalist DIKO, Communist AKEL and
Socialist EDEK -- could fulfill their intention to field
joint candidates and nominee lists in 33 municipalities and
numerous towns and villages. The southwestern city of Paphos
proved particularly problematic, with EDEK digging in for its
standard-bearer. In response to the blatant backroom
dealings, commentators of varied political stripes cried
foul, complaining that coalition leaders were preempting
voters and "electing" their chosen few.


10. The partnership seems to have survived mostly intact.
In the two biggest races, however, in Nicosia and the port
city of Limassol, experts suspect some coalition voters will
abandon the chosen candidates, respectively Eleni Mavrou and
Andreas Christou. Both fervently supported the Annan Plan,
the UN's 2004 effort to reunify Cyprus, and both earned the
enmity of President Tassos Papadopoulos's DIKO for doing so.
Nonetheless, Christou, once Papadopoulos's most popular
minister, enjoys a commanding lead in Limassol, and Mavrou's
numbers are climbing in the capital.

--------------
Reading the Tea Leaves
--------------


11. Opinions differ regarding the significance of local
elections in this highly-centralized state. Respected
journalist and political analyst Christoforos Christoforou,
for example, believes that parties which discount local races
do so at their own peril. Mayors and councilmen often poll
higher approval ratings than RoC officials, Christoforou told
PolChief November 22, owing to constituents' beliefs they are
more responsive to citizens' needs than their counterparts in
Nicosia. Satisfaction -- or disgust -- with local
politicians and their respective parties can affect voters'
decisions in follow-on national races, the analyst contends.
To illustrate, Christoforou highlighted DISY's 1991 municipal
campaign. The right-wing party three years earlier had lost
the presidency to a political newcomer, viewed the local
races as useful springboards back to power, and fielded (and
supported) top-notch candidates. DISY fared well at the
municipal level and, two years hence, sent Glafkos Clerides
to the Presidential Palace.


12. Negative electoral "leverage" existed as well. The
governing coalition faced tough races in Limassol and
Nicosia, Christoforou ventured. Could it survive until 2008
if it lost both? Only if its candidates dominated the
remaining key races, providing party spin-meisters with
necessary grist. Regardless of the December 17 outcome,
however, he expected no rash decisions from either opposition
or coalition regarding the presidential campaign. "Not until
April will the picture become clearer," he concluded.


13. Other analysts consulted see zero linkage between local
and national politics. AKEL-identified and/or -supported
candidates would emerge the most voted December 17, they
predicted, owing to the party's historic grassroots strength.
The party had never proven able to replicate that
performance on the national level, however, since voters,
while comfortable with a "Red" mayor, would never award the
Palace to the Communists. Nor would future national leaders
surface from December's elections, their logic goes, since
local pols rarely ascend past city halls to obtain
Parliamentary or ministerial positions (those jobs normally
fall to party faithful). Finally, personalities trump party
affiliation at the municipal level; the popular mayor of a
Nicosia suburb, running now as a DISY-supported independent,
earlier had won three terms each time representing a
different party.
SCHLICHER