Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NICOSIA1607
2006-09-21 12:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nicosia
Cable title:
TURKISH CYPRIOT POLITICS: AMBITIOUS LEFTISTS,
how-toVZCZCXRO2619 PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHNC #1607/03 2641253 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 211253Z SEP 06 FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6898 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0631
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 NICOSIA 001607
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR TU CY
SUBJECT: TURKISH CYPRIOT POLITICS: AMBITIOUS LEFTISTS,
BICKERING NATIONALISTS, AND "OPERATION MUFTI"
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* Missing Section 001 *
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* Missing Section 002 *
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NICOSIA 00001607 003 OF 004
July 2006, and reportedly opens conversations with Talat by
asking "How's Ahmet?" This close relationship -- along with
recent sightings of Yonluer together with Avci and Disli --
has fueled press and coffee-shop speculation that he was a
key facilitator in alleged AKP efforts to force a
"government" change, in what has become known as "Operation
Mufti." (As if to underscore his image as a deal-maker,
Yonluer took an urgent call from Avci, in hushed tones,
during a meeting with poloff as the government crisis was
unfolding.)
11. (C) Less conspiracy-minded observers, however, note that
Yonluer is a shameless self-promoter and publicity seeker who
longs to be seen as a political fixer -- perhaps the best way
for a religious leader to burnish his reputation in the
avowedly secular, heterodox Turkish Cypriot community.
Sources close to Soyer admit that CTP appointed Yonluer "TRNC
Mufti" in 2005 as a gesture of goodwill to Erdogan, but deny
he played a role in the reshuffle. Indeed, Soyer's private
secretary (protect) told us that the "PM" had gotten a "green
SIPDIS
light" from Erdogan to dump Serdar during a private meeting
just after the June elections, long before Yonluer began
meeting with Avci or others. Even those who do not know
about Erdogan's "green light" also suspect that it was the
wily Soyer, rather than Erdogan, Disli, or Yonluer, who
initiated the reshuffle for his own political purposes.
Whether it was Erdogan or Soyer who came up with the idea of
casting out Serdar, however, it seems clear that AKP at the
very least had advance knowledge of the move and approved of
it.
WATCH YOUR BACK, JACK: NATIONALISTS PLOT REVENGE
-------------- ---
12. (C) Outflanked by the CTP and undermined by defections
from their ranks, the nationalist right has been left to lick
its wounds. The UBP and DP -- bitter rivals until a few days
ago -- have been thrown together into a tactical, anti-CTP
alliance (the "Axis of Jilted," said one English-speaking
wag). DP and UBP have said they would boycott "parliament"
to protest the new "government" and the alleged shenanigans
surrounding its formation.
13. (C) Meanwhile, ex-"president" and nationalist icon Rauf
Denktash has criticized Erdogan by name and called for
"patriotic" forces to rally against the CTP, the AKP, the
Mufti -- plus the Annan Plan and the EU for good measure.
Friends of Denktash Senior have darkly hinted to us that the
Old Man has been in contact with "friends" in the media,
military, and government on the mainland seeking their
"support." Some Turkish Cypriots voice quiet concern that
the blatant expulsion of Serdar from power (this is the first
time in history there has not been a Denktash in high office
in the "TRNC") may incur the wrath of the Deep State.
MORE TURKISH THAN THE TURKS?
--------------
14. (C) CTP insiders, however, seem cautiously optimistic
they can get away with it. For one thing, CTP is confident
in its "good" relationship with AKP, and party leaders feel
that as long as Erdogan and the army continue their uneasy
truce on the mainland, pro-settlement leftists can continue
to rule here. Furthermore, apart from the octogenarian Rauf
Denktash (who is a political has-been at home, whatever his
reputation on the mainland) there is no obvious figure on the
right to unify rivals DP and UBP -- both of which face
serious internal leadership problems. And as the UBP's
dejected outgoing president confided to us, without access to
pork and patronage, any party challenging CTP is at a serious
disadvantage.
15. (C) Most importantly, perhaps, CTP believes that it has
established its credentials as credible defenders of Turkish
Cypriot -- and Turkish -- interests, even though Talat and
his allies were initially mistrusted by Denktash and the Deep
State. "They were afraid we'd sell the farm," one CTP
politburo member told us, recalling meetings where GOT
representatives had "panicked" over Talat's plans to
cooperate with the Committee Missing Persons, open churches,
or negotiate with the Luxembourg presidency on a
Varosha-for-trade swap (ref f). But, he noted, the current
administration has held firm in UN talks (ref g). At the
same time, its willingness to engage and seek the upper hand
on issues like property -- where the Turkish Cypriots now
have the Greek Cypriots on the run (ref h) -- have put the
Turkish side in an "even better position than we were with
Denktash," who simply refused to talk about property. This,
said our politburo contact, may be enough to reassure the
Deep State, army, and others that they don't need a Denktash
around. "Even if Erdogan some day loses power to the army,"
***********************
* Missing Section 004 *
***********************
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR TU CY
SUBJECT: TURKISH CYPRIOT POLITICS: AMBITIOUS LEFTISTS,
BICKERING NATIONALISTS, AND "OPERATION MUFTI"
***********************
* Missing Section 001 *
***********************
***********************
* Missing Section 002 *
***********************
NICOSIA 00001607 003 OF 004
July 2006, and reportedly opens conversations with Talat by
asking "How's Ahmet?" This close relationship -- along with
recent sightings of Yonluer together with Avci and Disli --
has fueled press and coffee-shop speculation that he was a
key facilitator in alleged AKP efforts to force a
"government" change, in what has become known as "Operation
Mufti." (As if to underscore his image as a deal-maker,
Yonluer took an urgent call from Avci, in hushed tones,
during a meeting with poloff as the government crisis was
unfolding.)
11. (C) Less conspiracy-minded observers, however, note that
Yonluer is a shameless self-promoter and publicity seeker who
longs to be seen as a political fixer -- perhaps the best way
for a religious leader to burnish his reputation in the
avowedly secular, heterodox Turkish Cypriot community.
Sources close to Soyer admit that CTP appointed Yonluer "TRNC
Mufti" in 2005 as a gesture of goodwill to Erdogan, but deny
he played a role in the reshuffle. Indeed, Soyer's private
secretary (protect) told us that the "PM" had gotten a "green
SIPDIS
light" from Erdogan to dump Serdar during a private meeting
just after the June elections, long before Yonluer began
meeting with Avci or others. Even those who do not know
about Erdogan's "green light" also suspect that it was the
wily Soyer, rather than Erdogan, Disli, or Yonluer, who
initiated the reshuffle for his own political purposes.
Whether it was Erdogan or Soyer who came up with the idea of
casting out Serdar, however, it seems clear that AKP at the
very least had advance knowledge of the move and approved of
it.
WATCH YOUR BACK, JACK: NATIONALISTS PLOT REVENGE
-------------- ---
12. (C) Outflanked by the CTP and undermined by defections
from their ranks, the nationalist right has been left to lick
its wounds. The UBP and DP -- bitter rivals until a few days
ago -- have been thrown together into a tactical, anti-CTP
alliance (the "Axis of Jilted," said one English-speaking
wag). DP and UBP have said they would boycott "parliament"
to protest the new "government" and the alleged shenanigans
surrounding its formation.
13. (C) Meanwhile, ex-"president" and nationalist icon Rauf
Denktash has criticized Erdogan by name and called for
"patriotic" forces to rally against the CTP, the AKP, the
Mufti -- plus the Annan Plan and the EU for good measure.
Friends of Denktash Senior have darkly hinted to us that the
Old Man has been in contact with "friends" in the media,
military, and government on the mainland seeking their
"support." Some Turkish Cypriots voice quiet concern that
the blatant expulsion of Serdar from power (this is the first
time in history there has not been a Denktash in high office
in the "TRNC") may incur the wrath of the Deep State.
MORE TURKISH THAN THE TURKS?
--------------
14. (C) CTP insiders, however, seem cautiously optimistic
they can get away with it. For one thing, CTP is confident
in its "good" relationship with AKP, and party leaders feel
that as long as Erdogan and the army continue their uneasy
truce on the mainland, pro-settlement leftists can continue
to rule here. Furthermore, apart from the octogenarian Rauf
Denktash (who is a political has-been at home, whatever his
reputation on the mainland) there is no obvious figure on the
right to unify rivals DP and UBP -- both of which face
serious internal leadership problems. And as the UBP's
dejected outgoing president confided to us, without access to
pork and patronage, any party challenging CTP is at a serious
disadvantage.
15. (C) Most importantly, perhaps, CTP believes that it has
established its credentials as credible defenders of Turkish
Cypriot -- and Turkish -- interests, even though Talat and
his allies were initially mistrusted by Denktash and the Deep
State. "They were afraid we'd sell the farm," one CTP
politburo member told us, recalling meetings where GOT
representatives had "panicked" over Talat's plans to
cooperate with the Committee Missing Persons, open churches,
or negotiate with the Luxembourg presidency on a
Varosha-for-trade swap (ref f). But, he noted, the current
administration has held firm in UN talks (ref g). At the
same time, its willingness to engage and seek the upper hand
on issues like property -- where the Turkish Cypriots now
have the Greek Cypriots on the run (ref h) -- have put the
Turkish side in an "even better position than we were with
Denktash," who simply refused to talk about property. This,
said our politburo contact, may be enough to reassure the
Deep State, army, and others that they don't need a Denktash
around. "Even if Erdogan some day loses power to the army,"
***********************
* Missing Section 004 *
***********************