Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NEWDELHI8463
2006-12-21 11:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

CRUCIAL MUSLIM CONSTITUENCY SPLIT BEFORE IMPENDING

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR SCUL KDEM KISL IN 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 008463 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SCUL KDEM KISL IN
SUBJECT: CRUCIAL MUSLIM CONSTITUENCY SPLIT BEFORE IMPENDING
UTTAR PRADESH ELECTIONS

REF: NEW DELHI 8243

NEW DELHI 00008463 001.2 OF 005


Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 008463

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SCUL KDEM KISL IN
SUBJECT: CRUCIAL MUSLIM CONSTITUENCY SPLIT BEFORE IMPENDING
UTTAR PRADESH ELECTIONS

REF: NEW DELHI 8243

NEW DELHI 00008463 001.2 OF 005


Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The crucial state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) is
facing an election in early 2007 that could displace the
current Samajwadi Party (SP) government. Muslims have long
been considered a crucial SP "vote bank." A December 11-13
trip to the Muslim dominated areas of Rampur, Moradabad and
Bareilly revealed that the SP's once-solid Muslim support has
begun to fray along geographic lines. UP is a large state,
which is a loose amalgam of disparate regions. In the
Western UP cities of Rampur and Moradabad, it was evident
that the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) had a strong
organizational base, and despite some second thoughts, most
Muslims still planned to support the party. The city of
Bareilly is on the edge of Eastern UP, where it appears
Congress has begun to make inroads with Muslims. In
addition, the Muslims seem to be splitting along sectarian
lines, with Deobandis still strongly in the SP camp, while
the far more numerous Barelvis are flirting with Congress.
The Shia, who predominate in the state capital of Lucknow,
are themselves split into pro-SP and pro-Congress factions.
The SP has long counted on strong Muslim support to fend off
challenges from its rivals. If the Muslims begin to split,
it could undermine SP support on election day and threaten
the party's continued rule in Lucknow. End Summary.

Bellwether Project: Uttar Pradesh
--------------


2. (SBU) New Delhi's POL and ECON sections, along with the
Consulates, will continue to take the economic and political
temperature of key states over the next year. Such snapshots
will give us a better sense of how local trends affect
national politics, and ultimately, US foreign policy goals.
Uttar Pradesh (UP),one of the "bellwether" states, is facing
a state election in early 2007. Poloff and POL FSN traveled
to Muslim majority areas in the West of the state to the

cities of Moradabad, Bareilly, and Rampur December 11-13.
This region is home to a significant Muslim minority, which
will play a crucial role in the UP's early 2007 election.
During the visit, Poloff and POL FSN met with a cross-section
of Muslims, from influential opinion leaders to ordinary
villagers to gauge their thoughts on the election and
attempts by the various political parties to win their
loyalty. We hope these reports will give Washington readers
better insight into the vast India outside Delhi's Ring Road
and the economic, security and social trends that will
determine where India is headed over the long run.

Cementing the Muslim Vote Bloc
--------------


3. (U) In another indicator of his determination to cement
the Muslims behind his ruling Samajwadi Party (SP),Chief
Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav on December 18 announced a
string of Islamic-centric concessions and lambasted the rival
Congress for its purported evil designs against Muslims.
Addressing a meeting of Muslim educators in Lucknow, Yadav
warned that Congress was working in league with the BJP to

NEW DELHI 00008463 002.2 OF 005


short-change Muslims. He then announced that his government
would extend financial aid to 100 madrassas, sanctioned 20
million rupees (USD 450,000) for the construction of a new
office complex for the state madrassa board in Lucknow, added
34 new positions to the board, and trumpeted the upgrading of
160 madrassas and provision of free mid-day meals to all
madrassa students in the state. Yadav pointed out that under
his government the percentage of Muslims in the state police
and paramilitary forces increased to 14 percent, the highest
of any state in India. He urged Muslims to support the SP to
combat the communal agenda of Congress and the BJP.

Moradabad - Lukewarm on Yadav
--------------


4. (C) Moradabad is home to UP's brass industry, which is
dominated by Muslim craftsmen. Although estimates are
unreliable, approximately 60 percent of the population is
Muslim. Muslim interlocutors in Moradabad acknowledged to
Poloff that Muslim support for the ruling SP was slipping, as
evidenced by its poor showing in the recently concluded
municipal elections. Despite this, Moradabad was one of the
few SP victories, as a highly-regarded Muslim community
leader won the mayoral election under the SP banner, winning
a plurality of both Hindu and Muslim votes. Muslims argued
that the victory was due more to his personal status than to
Muslim support for the SP, with most claiming that the Muslim
vote was no longer solidly behind the ruling party. One
prominent businessman noted that Muslims had "respect" for UP
Congress President Salman Khurshid and theorized that his
party could do well in Moradabad if it fielded strong Muslim
candidates. Muslims, whose brass factories must rely on
expensive diesel generators to function, expressed strong
resentment of what they called SP "discrimination" against
Moradabad in power allocation. They noted that neighboring
Rampur, home to the SP Power Minister Azam Khan, enjoyed
electric power 24 hours per day, while Moradabad, with a much
more extensive industrial base, was lucky to received power
for four hours in a day. Muslims complained that while
Moradabad was represented by MPs and MLAs from the SP, they
seemed to have little influence in Lucknow and could not
deliver the goods for the city.


5. (C) Moradabad has few Dalits and the BSP is very weak
there. In addition, the Muslim majority ensures that the BJP
will never get a foothold in the city. This means that
political contests are usually between candidates from the SP
and Congress. Muslims in Moradabad expressed strong
resentment of BSP Chief Mayawati's recent remarks
characterizing the state's Muslims as "fundamentalists," and
her previous stints as Chief Minister heading a coalition
government with the hated BJP. They pointed out that Mulayam
could be in serious trouble next year, as both the BJP and
Congress are determined to knock Mulayam out of power and are
not above strategic cooperation to ensure the defeat of SP
candidates.

Rampur - Mulayam's Pocket Borough
--------------


6. (C) Rampur, with a 70 percent Muslim population, has the

NEW DELHI 00008463 003.2 OF 005


highest percentage of Muslims of any locality outside of
Jammu and Kashmir. It is also the home constituency of UP
Power Minister Azam Khan, a close associate of Chief Minister
Yadav. He has used his position to lavish spending on Rampur
and lock it in to the SP fold as a virtual pocket borough.
Driving around the city it is hard to miss the new bus
station, just completed last year, and the newly widened and
paved main streets. It is no coincidence that the new
avenues are brightly lit by impressive rows of new street
lights which remain on throughout the night. In addition,
Rampur is home to a new University, which although private,
was arranged by the SP power structure. It is slated to have
30,000 students and will provide much-needed engineering and
computer training to local Muslims in an area with few
industries or employment opportunities. Large signboards on
every major intersection in the city remind the population of
the source of all of this largesse.


7. (C) Somewhat incongruously, the city's only industrial
concern is a distillery, which markets rum and whiskey
throughout India, Africa and the Middle East. Fully 40
percent of the plant's 3,000 employees are local Muslims.
The traditional landlord, trader and professional elite has
been increased by a new nouveau riche class of bureaucrats,
professionals and businessmen who have come up under the SP
dispensation and have constructed new marble mansions along
the once staid "civil lines." With the city oing so well
under the SP, there was no sign of the presence of any other
political party.

Elite Hedging its Bets
--------------


8. (C) Poloff and POL FSN met the Rampur elite at a wedding
on December 11. All agreed that the formerly robust Congress
organization in Rampur has all but disappeared, and were
confident that the SP would be returned to power in the
upcoming election. However, interlocutors anticipated that
the upcoming election would be a close and bitter affair that
could remain in contention up until the last minute. The
consensus was that the SP would have to form a coalition
government but its shape would only be determined after the
votes were tallied. Muslims expressed universal resentment
against Mayawati for her public remarks characterizing the
state's Muslim community as "dangerous fundamentalists In
private, they agreed that both Mulayam and Mayawati are
without principles or ideology and are totally corrupt,
saying that Mayawati is "unreliable" and willing to form a
coalition with anyone to come to power. They predicted that
any coalition formed by her BSP party is likely to be
short-lived, as she has a habit of "dumping" her allies
whenever it suits her.


9. (C) Muslims in Rampur remained suspicious of Mulayam and
did not totally reject rumors that the SP and BSP had reached
a secret agreement. The rumor states that the BJP has
conceded the Muslims to Mulayam and has agreed to sponsor
communal riots in the state to spread fear among Muslims.
This allows Mulayam to portray himself as the protector of
Muslims, and the BJP to harden its core Hindutva
constituency. The rumor further alleges that both parties

NEW DELHI 00008463 004.2 OF 005


have not ruled out a future coalition government after the
election.


10. (C) The Muslim elite fully expects Congress to declare
President's rule and dismiss the Mulayam government in the
months preceding the election. Some expressed guarded praise
for Rahul Gandhi, saying his presence and activities have
revived the party. Despite this, Congress was likely to
remain in fourth place after the SP, BSP and BJP in the
aftermath of the election, although it will increase its
seats at the expense of SP. They commented that Mulayam has
built a strong organization in the rural areas of Western UP,
especially among the illiterate, and is ready to depict
himself as a victim of Congress persecution and rally the
support of the masses who have little understanding of the
constitutional issues involved. Depending on how she fares,
Mayawati will try to stake her claim at forming the
government by allying with either Congress or the BJP.
Having betrayed her allies repeatedly, however, she has
little credibility and is "playing a dangerous game," that
could lead to the destruction of her party. Several
informants felt that in the new era of accountability being
ushered in by the UPA government, Mayawati's conviction in
the "Taj Corridor Case," is inevitable. (She has been
charged with illegally initiating a tourism project involving
the Taj Mahal for her personal gain).

Bareilly - Congress Guardedly Optimistic
--------------


11. (C) Congress is experiencing a mini-revival in Bareilly
(a Muslim majority city of approximately four million).
Unlike Rampur, there are few signs of the SP in the city,
which had just elected a Congress mayor (a female Hindu) for
the first time in many years. Although there are SP posters
and wall-paintings, they must share space with those of the
other major parties. The surprise Congress victory in the
mayoral race had shifted attention to Congress, which had
long been dormant in the area, and a cross-section of Muslim
community leaders told Poloff that they were now seriously
thinking of leaving regional parties and switching over to
Congress. They felt that Congress now had an opportunity and
could create a groundswell of support. Muslims expressed
strong admiration for Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh, with
many stating they were "fed up" with regional party
corruption. The Muslims tended to view both Gandhi and Singh
as honest and incorruptible. They also expressed guarded
support for UP Congress President Salman Khurshid and
applauded recent statements by the Prime Minister that he
intended to commit real money to implement the
recommendations of the Sachar Report (Reftel).

The Power Behind the Throne
--------------


12. (C) Praveen Singh Aron is the husband of the
newly-elected mayor of Bareilly and a member of the All India
Congress Committee (AICC). In a December 13 meeting with
Poloff, Aron made it clear that he was the power behind the
throne in Bareilly and running the Congress effort to take
back power. Conceding that Congress was making gains,

NEW DELHI 00008463 005.2 OF 005


particularly among the Muslims, Aron cautioned that it would
require deft political maneuvering to ensure a Congress
victory in 2007. He noted that Congress rule in Delhi had
both advantages and disadvantages and exclaimed that he was
worried that Congress could take a beating if it failed to
control inflation. Aron refused to confirm that Congress was
ready to dismiss the Mulayam government, saying only that
Mulayam would most certainly use violence, intimidation and
vote fraud to try to capture the election and that
President's rule could keep him under control. Aron assured
Poloff that a Congress government would provide an honest
alternative to the corruption-ridden regional parties that
have looted the states and provide little governance.

Comment - A Geographic Split in the Muslim Vote Bank
-------------- --------------


13. (C) UP is actually a loose conglomerate of up to five
distinct regions, each with its own political dynamic.
Although Rampur, Moradabad and Bareilly are within several
hundred kilometers from each other and each has a Muslim
majority population, their political stance is dictated by
geography. Rampur, and to a lesser extend Moradabad are
within the Western UP region where SP has a strong presence
among Muslims that will be difficult to dislodge. Bareilly
is on the edge of Eastern UP, where Congress is rebuilding
its organization and reviving popular Muslim support. In
Eastern UP, Congress must concede the Dalit vote to
Mayawati's BSP, but is actively recruiting Muslims and
Brahmins into a new alliance. Congress strategists hope that
the Brahmins (who constitute up to 20 percent of UP's
population) will use their influence in the villages to bring
in other castes. If the Congress effort succeeds in wooing
away the Muslims of Eastern UP away from Mulayam, it could
sufficiently undermine his support and cost him the election.



14. (C) There is also an internal Muslim dynamic working
against the SP. Most of UP's Muslims belong to the more
liberal Barelvi sect (based in Bareilly). Barelvi Muslims
have begun to lose patience with Mulayam's domination of the
Muslim vote and are flirting with Congress. Mulayam has
consciously courted the numerically small (20 percent) and
more conservative Deobandi sect. Although better organized
and funded than the Barelvis, the Deobandis alone may not be
sufficient to put Mulayam over the top. The Shias, who
predominate in Lucknow, are split between a pro-SP faction
close to the Deobandis and a pro-Congress faction closer to
the Barelvis. This lack of Muslim unity could provide an
opening to Congress to recruit large numbers of Muslims for
the first time in several decades, while eating into the
Muslim vote bank that Mulayam once considered a source of
solid support.


15. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD