MEA UPBEAT ON INDO-PAK DESPITE PUNDITS' NAYSAYING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 000554

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ETRD ELTN MOPS KNNP IN PK
SUBJECT: MEA UPBEAT ON INDO-PAK DESPITE PUNDITS' NAYSAYING

REF: A. NEW DELHI 163


B. 05 NEW DELHI 9771

C. 05 NEW DELHI 7874

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: In a January 25 meeting with PolCouns, MEA
Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) Dilip Sinha
provided a positive read-out of the January 17-18 Third Round
of the Indo-Pak Composite Dialogue talks, and of Indo-Pak
relations generally, despite the pall cast by the
cross-border terrorist attacks in late 2005, frustration over
Musharraf's continued public kite flying on Kashmir, and a
public squabble after the GOP alleged Indian rabble-rousing
in Balochistan. A determination to keep up the direction, if
not the momentum, of the dialogue prevailed, and Foreign
Secretaries Shyam Saran and Riaz Mohammad Khan discussed

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several new confidence building measures amid what the MEA
characterized as a genuinely positive interpersonal
relationship. Coincidentally, the current round of Indo-Pak
talks was launched while their respective cricket teams were
facing off in Lahore. Indian press and pundits, viewing the
interaction through the lens of last year's terrorism upsurge
and the perception of minimal tangible progress, had a more
pessimistic outlook, but this resilient and complicated
relationship has proven itself to be more a tortoise than a
hare, and the race to normalized relations is a marathon, not
a sprint. The PM must be pleased. End Summary.

MEA Publicly and Privately Pleased
--------------


2. (C) Sinha reported that Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's
upbeat remarks to Indian media following the talks accurately
reflected the tenor of the discussions -- their spin value,
he continued, was in countering inaccurately negative Indian
press reporting. Although major substantive differences
remain, Saran and Pakistani Foreign Secretary Riaz Mohammad
Khan quickly developed a warm interpersonal relationship that
had been lacking between Saran and Khan's predecessor,
according to Sinha.


3. (C) The only "serious, but not acrimonious" period during
the talks were "two or three minutes" when discussion turned
to the crisis in Balochistan, Sinha continued. "Even talk on
J&K was generally amenable," with Saran favorably comparing
the degree of democratic self-governance in J&K with those in
Pakistani Kashmir and the Northern Areas, he told us. Saran
in his public statement also pointed to Indian Kashmir's
representative and democratic institutions of government and
took a relatively mild swipe with his "hope that there are
similar representative entities on the Pakistani side,
whether it relates to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Gilgit or
Baltistan."

Strategic View Allows Delhi to Absorb (Some) Negatives
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Sinha compared Delhi's relations with Islamabad to
those with Tehran: "We are not sure how they will mature, or
when, or what setbacks will arise, but it is better to engage
(with Iran) than to disengage. The same logic applies to
Pakistan. We can tolerate some ISI activity and terrorism,
and hope relations mellow over time and improve." (Sinha's
other remarks on Iran will be reported Septel.)

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But Terrorism Remains the Wild Card
--------------


5. (C) Delhi is unwilling (and politically unable) to give
Islamabad a free pass on cross-border terrorism, however.
Speaking to the press after the meetings, Saran noted that
"despite assurances at the highest levels, there has been no
end to cross-border terrorism from Pakistan. Our ability to
carry forward the peace process will be deeply impacted
unless it happens in an atmosphere free of violence." We
have heard almost the same point privately.

CBMs: Incremental Steps Toward Normalization
--------------


6. (U) The Foreign Secretaries reported progress on several
CBMs, including:

-- continued discussion on an Indian proposal on "Reducing
Risk of Nuclear Accidents or Unauthorized Use of Nuclear
Weapons"

-- concluding the Pakistan-proposed agreement on the
prevention of incidents at sea

-- a new Indian proposal that both sides abjure building new
defense works and fortifications along the LoC

-- exploring modalities for the conduct of monthly flag
meetings between local Commanders at selected sectors along
the LoC

-- new Pakistani proposals to declare South Asia an
"anti-ballistic missile free zone" and to refrain from
deploying Army strike formations near the borders

-- notification that the GOI intends to extend the
Khokhrapar-Munnabao rail link to the Sufi pilgrimage site at
Ajmer


7. (C) Sinha reported that the Pakistani delegation nixed
India's proposed cross-LoC bus service between Kargil and
Skardu, but he was unconcerned and said India would continue
to raise it. He also predicted that this round of talks
would produce some additional CBMs on trade and travel
without substantial progress on territorial issues (Sir Creek
and the Siachen Glacier),adding "that is to be expected,
those issues will be the hardest to solve." Expect positive
movement, MEA Director (Pakistan) Jeeva Sagar separately
added, but not "breakthroughs."

MEA Favors Indo-Pak Diplomacy Off the Front Page
-------------- ---


8. (C) The diminishing number of front-page column-inches
devoted to Indo-Pak affairs in Indian press is, for Sinha, a
positive development. "It shows that relations are
normalizing -- interest is lower, tensions are lower,
expectations are lower" (and therefore easier to manage).
Keeping diplomacy out of the spotlight allows the
bureaucracies to focus on tackling the real issues with fewer
distractions.


9. (C) In this light, Musharraf's ongoing public musings on

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Indo-Pak and Kashmir complicate diplomacy for the GOI (Refs A
and B). "Coming out in public with these statements gives
the (political) Opposition the opportunity to criticize them
even before the diplomats or the PM have digested them,"
Sagar complained, which results in all Musharraf's
suggestions becoming non-starters upon arrival. "This is not
to say we would agree to them, but going to the media before
providing these ideas through diplomatic channels ensures
they will be unacceptable," he concluded.

Balochistan Boil: Why India Wants it Cooled
--------------


10. (C) Sinha dismissed Pakistani media allegations that
Delhi is supporting trouble in Balochistan, underlining that
"no disturbance anywhere in the region is good for India."
He also noted that the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India natural
gas pipeline would transit Balochistan, and continued
conflict would put the massive investment at risk. "Pakistan
must recognize the need to talk to the people of Balochistan,
just as we are talking to the people of Jammu and Kashmir,"
Sinha reflected. He also pointed out that it took the
Pakistan Army two years to subdue the last Baloch uprising
(in the 1970s).

Baglihar in the Background
--------------


11. (C) Sagar reported that the Indian and Pakistani teams
working on the Baglihar Dam issue (Ref C) will meet with the
Neutral Expert in the first half of February, and he expects
a decision within the next few months. As in prior
discussions, Sagar confirmed the GOI would abide by whatever
decision is reached.

Is the Back-Channel Still Online?
--------------


12. (C) Delhi diplomatic gossip suggests (based on Pakistani
sources) that a back-channel meeting between SK Lambah and
Tariq Aziz was to have taken place this week, but Lambah has
been consistently tight-lipped. When asked, our MEA
interlocutors tell us they are not kept in the loop on this
dialogue and complain that its utility is compromised by
leaks from Islamabad.

Jaswant Singh Plans Pilgrimage, Not Politics
--------------


13. (C) Sinha confirmed that BJP leader and former Foreign
Minister Jaswant Singh's planned early February trip to a
Hindu shrine in Balochistan would be for a religious
pilgrimage and not to conduct politics. Singh's yatra is
slated to cross into Sindh overland, but in private vehicles
and not via the Munnabao-Khokhrapar border post expected to
open next month. Sinha reported that President Musharraf
over-ruled the Pakistani Foreign Ministry's initial rejection
of Singh's application. Like BJP leader Advani, Sinha will
reportedly also visit Karachi.

Indo-Pak Analysts Paint Gloomier Picture
--------------


14. (C) In contrast to the Foreign Ministry's generally
positive read-out, Delhi-based Indo-Pak watchers have been

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more pessimistic on the start of the new round of talks. As
a group, they pointed to Indian press reports of the meetings
as being mostly negative and focused on Saran's statements on
continuing Pakistani inaction against terrorism and Khan's
comments that India's alleged "interference" in Balochistan
threatened the peace process. However, their forecasts for
2006 tracked with the MEA's prediction that 2006 will see
more positive developments on Indo-Pak -- but few or no
headline-shattering breakthroughs -- as long as the level of
terrorism attributed to Islamabad remains under control.

Overstated Reports of Pall Cast by Terror Upsurge
-------------- --------------


15. (C) According to Jawaharlal Nehru University Professor
on Indo-Pak relations Dr. Savita Pandey, the "obvious
tension" caused by terrorism cast a pall over the talks.
"The Diwali bombings created an atmosphere of fear," Pandey
explained, "which raised serious questions about whether the
peace process should go forward in light of Pakistan's
support for terrorism." (COMMENT: The "obvious tension"
appears to be greatly overstated, according to the MEA's
accounts. End Comment.) If terrorism did not sour the
Foreign Secretaries' talks, it retains the power to grind
down the pace of progress -- during upticks in terrorism
metrics, New Delhi "puts up the terrorism shield" to slow
progress on the peace process, even for short periods of
time, observed Sushant Sareen, Editor of Public Opinion
Trends Analyses and officer of the South Asia Free Media
Association.

CBMs Still a Hit with Indian Public ...
--------------


16. (C) Professor Pandey noted, however, that Indians are
still "euphoric" over greater people-to-people contacts, and
Sagar told us that, absent spectacular terror attacks "that
are publicly traced to Pakistan," the Indian people will
continue to provide political momentum for additional CBMs,
"especially on travel and trade." (NOTE: Regarding
people-to-people interaction, Saran underlined in his January
18 briefing that the Indian High Commission in Islamabad
issued over 90,000 visits to Pakistanis in 2005, a 50% jump
over 2004. END NOTE.)

... But Expect No Miracles
--------------


17. (C) Observer Research Foundation's Wilson John indicated
that the peace process has reached a "normal and expected"
plateau after last year's hype over summits, cricket, bus
routes, and disaster diplomacy. PM Singh is "committed to
the process as far as he can stretch," but John predicted
that India will continue to focus on CBMs instead of more
thorny territorial issues such as the Siachen Glacier or
Kashmir. Sareen agreed that the process has generated enough
momentum to keep both sides working for progress, since
neither India nor Pakistan want to see a reverse of the
process. "No one wants to return to the old paradigm of
Indo-Pak relations," he commented. Sareen and Pandey noted
that most of the CBMs on defense issues are intended to
assure the international audience that their relationship is
normalizing.

Concern that Islamabad May Pull Plug on Dialogue

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18. (C) Sareen worried that the momentum could slow down
further if Pakistan reacts to the lack of progress on the
"core issues (i.e. Kashmir) by stalling on CBMs. If Pakistan
believes that they are not getting anywhere on the issues
that matter most, he warned, Islamabad may not see any reason
to go forward on trade, travel routes and other
people-to-people contacts. Sareen pointed to the Pakistani
Parliament's recent decision not to ratify the South Asia
Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) and its publicly linking SAFTA
to Kashmir as emblematic of the GOP's ability to hold trade
ransom to movement on Kashmir. He predicted that there is
currently sufficient momentum, but questioned whether a
slowdown of CBMs could eventually stall the entire process.


19. (C) In this vein, Saran's public description of CBMs as
"integral to the process of finding a final solution to the
Jammu and Kashmir issue" can be viewed as an offer of talking
points to his Pakistani counterpart to help bolster domestic
support for the slow, but progressive, Composite Dialogue
Process. MEA Director Sagar reiterated this theme to us,
stressing that there are still strong constituencies on both
sides that are not ready to accept "the most likely final
outcome on Kashmir -- ratification of the status quo," and
expanded use of CBMs is necessary to reduce these
constituencies to allow the political leaders to take that
final step.

Comment: Slow and Steady Runs the Race
--------------


20. (C) The MEA's upbeat read-out of the slow-but-positive
progress in Indo-Pak relations befits India, the status quo
power that is reaping political benefits as it feeds its
growing peace constituency. The Composite Dialogue suffered
because of the Diwali bomb blasts; although the peace process
and its vested interests demonstrate the capacity to
persevere, that capacity is not limitless. The current round
of talks is slated to continue through July and will likely
yield progress on CBMs -- notably on defense, trade, and
travel -- but the trust needed to tackle the tough
territorial issues (Sir Creek, Siachen glacier, and Kashmir)
remains insufficient so far. Some of the shine is off the
Indo-Pak relationship, and terror is the reason. If the
spring snow melt yields a significant uptick in terror -- and
Indian public opinion will be the de facto determinant of
what is "significant" -- we may see antipathy grow to
antagonism despite the PM's best intentions. That said, the
MEA and the Indian political leadership acknowledge that the
growing "peace constituency" in India, if fed a steady diet
of CBMs, provides the GOI needed momentum for continued
interaction and incremental progress. The fact that peace is
good politics is our strongest asset in urging the GOI to
sustain the process of gradual rapprochement. End Comment.


21. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD