Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NEWDELHI5285
2006-07-27 12:30:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

THE CIVIL NUCLEAR INITIATIVE MOVES TO CENTER STAGE

Tags:  PGOV PARM PINR TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 005285 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PARM PINR TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: THE CIVIL NUCLEAR INITIATIVE MOVES TO CENTER STAGE
IN PARLIAMENT

REF: A. NEW DELHI 5266

B. NEW DELHI 5198

C. NEW DELHI 5157

D. NEW DELHI 5138

Classified By: Charge Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 005285

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PARM PINR TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: THE CIVIL NUCLEAR INITIATIVE MOVES TO CENTER STAGE
IN PARLIAMENT

REF: A. NEW DELHI 5266

B. NEW DELHI 5198

C. NEW DELHI 5157

D. NEW DELHI 5138

Classified By: Charge Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Initiative has
moved to the top of the agenda in Parliament. Both the Prime
Minister and Minister of State for External Affairs tried to
assuage angry MPs from the Left and the Right on July 26 and
27, with limited success. Despite the dramatic floor
developments, much of the action has shifted outside
Parliament, with the Indian political leadership closeted in
closed-door meetings. The focus of the controversy is a
proposal by the Left Front (LF) for a "unanimous resolution"
that would express parliamentary disapproval of US actions
regarding the Initiative. The Congress Party has made it
clear that such a resolution is unacceptable and tantamount
to a "vote of confidence" against the UPA government, and is
trying to convince the sponsors to stand down. The LF and
its BJP allies insist they will go ahead with the proposal,
but could change tack on a moment's notice. As a face-saving
way out, Prime Minister Singh has offered to address the MPs
concerns in a statement to Parliament the week of July 31.
Congress is trying to convince the LF that cooperation with
the BJP is a betrayal, while some BJP leaders are already
expressing second thoughts about a Red/Saffron alliance on
this issue. With so much at stake, the leaders could
continue meeting right through the weekend and the situation
remain murky until the Prime Minister's address. End Summary.

Rising Temperatures Over the Initiative
--------------


2. (U) Indian political leaders have been closeted in
closed-door meetings all over Delhi in the past several days
to determine how the India/US Civil Nuclear Initiative will

play in Parliament. Press reports indicate that the
UPA/Congress is growing increasingly concerned that it could
become isolated on the issue and face a joint resolution in
Parliament against the nuclear deal that could attract the
support of the Left, BJP and regional parties, including
regional parties nominally belonging to the ruling UPA
alliance. Disgraced former Foreign Minister Natwar Singh has
also hinted at joining this coalition. A group of political
leaders from across party lines continue to insist that
Parliament pass a "unanimous resolution" expressing its
unhappiness with the India/US Civil Nuclear Initiative.
Although the text of a resolution has not been made public,
press reports indicate that it would condemn the US for its
purported "refusal" to accept India as a nuclear power and
define a number of US actions as "deviations" from the
original draft of the July 18 Indo-US Agreement. One MP told
the press that "our purpose is to convey the collective
sentiments of the members against the way India is allowing
itself to be dictated by the USA."

Meetings All Over Town: Congress Says I Dare You
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


3. (U) On July 26, former Foreign Minister Natwar Singh
(Congress),former Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha (BJP),
CPI(M) MP Sitaram Yechury, Janata Dal (U) leader Digvijay
Singh and Samajwadi Party (SP) General Secretary Amar Singh
met with Rajya Sabha Chairman Bhairon Singh Shekhawat to
convince him to accept their proposal for a "unanimous

NEW DELHI 00005285 002 OF 004


resolution" binding on the GOI regarding India's nuclear
cooperation with the US. They urged Shekhawat to enlist
Congress backing for their resolution. They claimed that
regional parties belonging to the UPA, including the DMK,
Telegu Desam Party (TDP) and the AIADMK would also back the
resolution.


4. (U) Congress, worried that the resolution initiative
could be gaining steam, authorized Parliamentary Affairs
Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunshi and Defense Minister Pranab
Mukherjee to meet with the Left leadership and convince them
to drop the resolution proposal. According to press reports,
Mukherjee was most adamant in the July 26 meeting, telling
representatives of all four parties in the Left Front that if
they went ahead with the resolution, "I am not in the
Government and the Government would not be there," and that
such a measure with the support of the LF and UPA regional
parties "would be tantamount to a no-confidence move."
Mukherjee also purportedly told the LF leadership that they
must choose "between communalism and imperialism, and that it
would do well not to be seen on the same side as the BJP on
this issue."

The Left Remains Coy
--------------


5. (U) The LF made no definitive statement following its
meeting with the Congress Ministers and it remains unclear
whether the Communists will back the resolution proposal.
Basudeb Acharya of the CPI(M),who was present at the
meeting, told the "Asian Age" that "We will discuss the
matter amongst ourselves, but I am for the resolution."
CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat told "the Hindu" that
he remained convinced that the resolution was a good idea as
it would provide a "framework on which the nuclear agreement
can proceed. Karat rejected Congress assertions that the
resolution was tantamount to a vote of confidence, stating
that "the CPI(M) is not holding out any threat to the
government" but merely "making its position clear." The LF
also issued a statement that the resolution issue was "not
about siding with one or another political party, but for
'all parties' to express themselves through Parliament on the
nuclear agreement with the United States."

Action on the Floor of Parliament
--------------


6. (U) During the July 26 question hour in the Lok Sabha,
MPs from the LF, SP and BJP expressed concern about the
Nuclear Initiative. MOS for External Affairs Anand Sharma
tried to assuage opponents, stating that there was as yet no
final legislation in the US and the GOI would have to wait
for the conciliation of the House and Senate versions of the
Bill before making a formal statement. He assured the MPs
that the final bilateral agreement would be "within the
defined templates" of the July 18 Joint Statement. His
remarks apparently did little to calm the agitated MPs, with
one BJP member stating afterwards that, "we don't share the
Left's anti-Americanism, because we ushered in a new chapter
of the Indo-US relationship, but we cannot allow the
government to compromise our nuclear capability and research
under the proposed deal."


7. (U) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh then indicated that he
would make a formal statement to Parliament next week. He
emphasized that "we will never compromise in a manner which
is inconsistent with the provisions of the Joint Statement of

NEW DELHI 00005285 003 OF 004


July 18," and that the UPA government has been making efforts
to ensure "utmost transparency" and promote "overall
accountability."

Continues For Another Day
--------------


8. (C) Pol/Miloff attended the July 27 session of the Rajya
Sabha and witnessed a contentious 30 minute debate on the
Nuclear Initiative. MOS Sharma again assured the MPs that
India would agree to India-specific safeguards and a Nuclear
Weapons State Additional Protocol, sparking a round of
shouting from Initiative opponents. After the Rajya Sabha
calmed down, a BJP speaker noted the passage of the
legislation in the US House of Representatives and expressed
concern about the nuclear explosive test provision and "tens
of other problems" that he claimed existed in the
legislation. The PM responded that, at the end of the day,
if the final legislation was "inconsistent" with what he had
previously told Parliament, he would address that matter when
the time comes. SP General Secretary Amar Singh told the PM
that Parliament was in favor of presenting the "unanimous
resolution," prompting more yelling, which only quieted after
Opposition Leader Jaswant Singh noted that the intent of the
resolution was only to ensure that the Indian Parliament
played a role in government similar to that exercised by the
US Congress. CPI(M) MP Sitaram Yechury then offered a
question about the sequencing of India's safeguards agreement
and the US-India 123 Agreement. The PM responded that that
House vote did not signify the end of the legislative process
and pleaded for the MPs to let the US finish. More yelling
ensued, and when the Chair tried to move on to the next
question, the BJP delegation walked-out.

Murky Until the End
--------------


9. (C) Congress is deeply worried about the proposed
Parliament resolution as the PM has staked his prestige on
the successful conclusion of the Civil Nuclear Initiative and
will not rest easy until the process is finally concluded.
Many in the old-line Congress Party remain skeptical about
the PM's enthusiasm for U.S.-India relations, and will
acquiesce to the nuclear deal only insofar as it carries no
domestic cost. In this regard, the political fate of Prime
Minister Singh is wrapped-up in the outcome. Parties from
across the political spectrum have attacked the PM in recent
weeks, claiming that he is too weak, unfit to be Prime
Minister and should be replaced (Ref A). This added
attention the PM increases Congress anxiety that any
anti-Initiative resolution could be interpreted as a
humiliation and betrayal of the UPA alliance. With so much
at stake, they have brought in the big guns to convince the
Left to abandon the resolution proposal. Pranab Mukherjee,
who acts as the de facto Deputy Prime Minister and is the
Congress liaison with LF, threw down the gauntlet and made it
plain to the Communist leaders that they cannot have it both
ways, propping up the UPA government, while undermining its
very existence. Much will depend on the BJP, as there is
obvious discomfort in both the BJP and LF for a Red/Saffron
alliance against the Nuclear agreement. There are early
indications that much of the BJP leadership is having serious
second thoughts about the prospect of cooperating with their
hated Communist enemies in Parliament. PM Singh is trying to
convince sympathetic elements from both the left and the
right that his statement in Parliament next week (which we
assume will be followed by questions),should suffice.

NEW DELHI 00005285 004 OF 004


Congress hopes to convince Initiative opponents that a
resolution serves no useful purpose and give them a
face-saving way to abandon it. We expect that India's
political leadership will continue to meet secretly right up
to the last minute, with Congress bringing all possible
pressure to bear on an issue that has now moved to the center
of India's domestic political debate.


10. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
PYATT