Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NEWDELHI1850
2006-03-17 12:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

GOI HOPING FOR POSITIVE BANGLADESH PM VISIT

Tags:  PREL ENRG ETRD PTER EINV PBTS IN BD 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001850 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2016
TAGS: PREL ENRG ETRD PTER EINV PBTS IN BD
SUBJECT: GOI HOPING FOR POSITIVE BANGLADESH PM VISIT
DESPITE SECURITY WORRIES

REF: A. DHAKA 1159

B. DHAKA 1053

NEW DELHI 00001850 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLCOUNS GEOFF PYATT, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001850

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2016
TAGS: PREL ENRG ETRD PTER EINV PBTS IN BD
SUBJECT: GOI HOPING FOR POSITIVE BANGLADESH PM VISIT
DESPITE SECURITY WORRIES

REF: A. DHAKA 1159

B. DHAKA 1053

NEW DELHI 00001850 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLCOUNS GEOFF PYATT, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Bangladesh Prime Minister Zia's March 20-23
visit to New Delhi, reciprocating Prime Minister Singh's
visit to Dhaka in November 2005, reflects in large part
Singh's sustained efforts and desire to ease long-standing
bilateral tensions. Zia is expected to attend a ceremonial
reception hosted by President Kalam and a banquet hosted by
Singh on March 20, so it is clear that the GOI is rolling out
the red carpet to try to put historically difficult relations
on a better footing. The Indian media has reported that
Sonia Gandhi and unnamed Cabinet ministers will also call on
Zia. The agenda is expected to cover economic ties,
including trade, investment protection, double taxation, and
water (but not natural gas),yet New Delhi's underlying
concern undoubtedly is security, to include the rise of
terrorism in Bangladesh, border security, and growing
evidence of terrorists in India using Bangladesh for
logistical support. End Summary.

GOI Hopes Dialogue Will Improve Economic Ties
--------------


2. (U) Against the background of a still testy relationship,
the GOI has worked to manage expectations of this visit, and
results will likely be limited to dialogue. India's High
Commissioner to Dhaka Veena Sikri told reporters on 13 March
that Zia's visit to New Delhi is an opportunity to start a
"constant engagement in dialogue," which she said was the
only way to resolve the longstanding tensions that have
plagued bilateral trade, in which India had a $1.5 billion
trade surplus in FY2004-05, and investment discussions. New
Delhi is expected to seek improved cross-border access for
trade, its top bilateral economic priority, and use of
Chittagong port for goods shipments, and Dhaka will be

looking for lower barriers to its exports to India. New
Delhi is also looking to engage Dhaka on a bilateral free
trade agreement (FTA). On the investment front, the Indian
business community has been pressing for an
investment-protection treaty, the importance of which was
most recently highlighted by the Tata's halting efforts to
establish a $2.5 billion steel project in Bangladesh.
However, Sikri noted that there is "no scope" for discussions
on a tri-nation pipeline that would allow India to import
natural gas from Burma.

Putting a Positive Spin On Water Sharing
--------------


3. (C) Sikri indicated that India seeks to move ahead on
water agreements, saying that India looked forward to
resolving sharing issues in a spirit similar to the Ganges
Water Sharing Treaty and helping Bangladesh with water
management and siltation. Her comments reflect a broadly
held desire in New Delhi to break free of petty regional
disputes and broadcast a reputation as a magnanimous regional
power. This is particularly striking given that Dhaka has
repeatedly pressed New Delhi to address alleged inequities in
the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, and that China recently
signed an agreement with Bangladesh to provide "real-time
data" on the water flow of the Brahmaputra River to help
forecast floods.

NEW DELHI 00001850 002.2 OF 002



Despite High Profile Arrests, Security Concerns Remain
-------------- --------------


4. (C) India expects that Begum Zia will tout her country's
high profile arrests of senior Jammatul Mujahedin Bangladesh
(JMB) leader Siddiqul Islam a.k.a Bangla Bhai (Ref A) and JMB
operations chief Sheikh Abdur Rahman (Ref B),but Delhi-based
terrorism expert Ajai Sahni discounted the early March
arrests as evidence of a significant policy change by Dhaka.
"We must wait to see how these arrests proceed, if there is a
real trial, how sentencing is carried out," he added. Sahni
pointed to Islamabad's tradition of arresting terrorist
leaders and cadres en masse, only to release them days or
weeks later, as an explanation for his cautious reply; he
also suggested that, to gain credibility, Dhaka would have
not only to arrest terrorist leaders, but also uproot their
organizations and infrastructure. Sahni's concerns echo
official comments, including those of MEA spokesman Navtej
Sarna, who stated, "Dhaka needs to respond to Indian
sensitivities regarding terror and insurgent groups operating
from its territory, as well as illegal migration." Even
Sikri, despite her efforts to accentuate the positive, told
reporters that an extradition treaty is critical to progress
on the security front. With widely reported evidence in the
Varanasi bombings pointing to possible Bangladeshi
involvement, security clearly tops India's agenda, even if it
will not admit publicly to such fears.

Comment: A Fresh Start
--------------


5. (C) Comment: The extent to which Prime Minister Zia's
visit to New Delhi truly ushers in a new era of positive
bilateral ties will depend in large part on the Indian side
on New Delhi's ability to balance its positive spin against
its very real security concerns, and on the Bangladeshi side,
on Dhaka's intention to engage meaningfully across the board.
Sikri's comments in particular hint at the difficulty New
Delhi, at least, will face in managing its part of the talks,
as it will likely be forced to publicly gloss over
long-standing difficulties, such as natural gas imports, in
order to get the positive story the Prime Minister seeks. We
will continue to engage the Indian MEA during and after this
visit, underlining our shared stake in helping Bangladesh to
surmount its recent difficulties.


6. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
BLAKE