Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NDJAMENA994
2006-07-26 10:52:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ndjamena
Cable title:  

"THE CHADIAN ILLNESS:" OPPOSITION

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM CD ASEC 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000994 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C, LONDON AND PARIS FOR
AFRICA-WATCHERS
INFO AF/PD (SWESTGATE)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CD ASEC
SUBJECT: "THE CHADIAN ILLNESS:" OPPOSITION
LEADER ON PROSPECTS FOR DIALOGUE


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000994

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C, LONDON AND PARIS FOR
AFRICA-WATCHERS
INFO AF/PD (SWESTGATE)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CD ASEC
SUBJECT: "THE CHADIAN ILLNESS:" OPPOSITION
LEADER ON PROSPECTS FOR DIALOGUE



1. (SBU) Summary: Armed opposition groups must be
brought to the table if a national dialogue is to have any
hope of success and the "Chadian illness" of armed
rebellion is to be cured, former Chadian Prime Minister
Alengue told us July 20. The respected opposition leader
stressed that it is up to President Deby to take the initiative.
Unlike some opposition members, who have insisted on
holding new presidential elections, Alengue was open to
accepting President Deby's new mandate, as long as
significant executive authority is handed over to a
government committed to reform. End Summary.


2. (U) On July 20, the Ambassador received opposition
member Jean Alengue at the residence. Alengue is
currently a prominent member of the CPDC (an alliance of
opposition parties),but served as Prime Minister under
Hissein Habre, and also under President Deby early in his
rule. The conversation centered around the current political
climate in Chad, after President Deby's election victory in
May, the need for continued efforts to promote political
dialogue, and the viability of the GoC's "committee of wise
men" a group formed by the President and tasked with,
among other things, meeting with non-armed opposition
groups like the CPDC.

-------------- --------------
ARMED OPPOSITION: "LE MAL TCHADIEN"
-------------- --------------


3. (U) One serious sticking point in advancing political
dialogue in Chad thus far has been whether or not and to
what extent to include armed opposition groups.
Throughout their wide-ranging discussion , Alengue
returned several times to this point. In his view, armed
opposition groups are a "Chadian illness" ["le mal
tchadien"], and they are a problem that can no longer be
ignored. According to Alengue, Chad has a history of
moving from one leader to another, and one dialogue to
another, while allowing politico-military forces to remain
active in the background. Until these forces are brought to
the table and/or dealt with directly, there can be no lasting
stability in Chad. Armed opposition will act as a

destabilizing force on an already fragile regime.


4. (U) Alengue's proposed solution to this is simple, on
the surface: politico-military groups must be brought to the
e
table if any real dialogue is to succeed. He stated very
clearly that the political opposition parties, such as those
represented by the CPDC, "will tell them that there is no
room for weapons," and that "the politico-military groups
are part of the crisis." At the same time, Alengue points
out that many armed opposition members are Chadian, and,
therefore, the GOC and opposition parties should
understand their perspective by including them. "We are
heading for a coup d'etat," Alengue says, "and including
the politico-military groups [in a dialogue] is a way out of
the crisis."

-------------- --------------
SKEPTICISM FOR COMMITTEE OF WISE MEN
-------------- --------------


5. (U) President Deby's government, in an effort to
answer calls from opposition groups and the international
community for political dialogue, has set up a "committee
of wise men" to explore issues of concern to all sides and
advise the President on possible ways to move forward.
The committee is made up of at least one former president

NDJAMENA 00000994 002 OF 002


and many prominent political figures. Alengue stated that
he has not yet met formally with the group, but that, while
he has great respect for some of the people on the
committee, he was skeptical that they can move beyond the
current impasse. Indeed, Alengue believed the ball is
squarely in President Deby's court: "the whole system
comes from him-s, begins and ends with him, so he can't
expect a dialogue to work [] unless he makes the first
step," Alengue says.

--------------
NEW ELECTIONS?
--------------


6. (U) The Ambassador asked what Alengue viewed as the
pre-conditions for a successful dialogue, including whether
the opposition still insisted that President Deby step down.
Alengue stated that there are no pre-conditions in his mind.
He saw a number of possible directions, but believed that
the key to success will be to deal with the politico-military
opposition. The Ambassador pointed out the demand by
some members of the opposition new presidential elections
would quite likely bring only stalemate. Alengue conceded
this point, and said that he personally is open to other
options. For example, presidential powers could be handed
over in large part to a strong government headed by a
strong Prime Minister. Under such an 'intermediate
solution', Alengue said, President Deby should agree not to
run in 2011. However, Alengue held firm to the belief that
putting such changes in place would require substantial
changes to Chad's constitution. A further complication
appears to be that, while Alengue does not view Deby
stepping down as a pre-condition to dialogue, the armed
opposition most likely does.
--------------
A DIVIDED CHAD
--------------


7. (SBU) Alengue expressed some optimism that there are
possible solutions on the horizon. He believes that Chad
needs someone to bring people together he used the
French term 'un rassembleur' on the political front. If
public finances were better managed, Alengue asserted,
Chad's ethnic problems would disappear. Alengue stated
that, contrary to popular opinion, Chadians do not want to
be divided, and hunger for a sense of national unity. He
strongly criticized the French for, in his opinion,
"manipulating ethnic divisions to their own advantage" in
the past, and for continuing to speak of a divided Chad.
However, he reiterated the need for presidential powers to
be significantly reduced if such divisions can really be
overcome.


--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) Alengue comes across as a serious and reasoned
voice among an often fractious opposition. He was very
open to our suggestions, which he welcomed as valuable
food for thought.


WALL