CHAD: POLITICAL OPPOSTION PROPOSES UNITY GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000826

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR AF, AFC, DRL, PRM, S/CRS
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KCRS CD
SUBJECT: CHAD: POLITICAL OPPOSTION PROPOSES UNITY GOVERNMENT

REF: NDJAMENA 778

Classified By: POL/ECON OFFICER MICHAEL P. ZORICK, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND
(D).

SUMMARY:
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1. (C) Chad's political opposition's ideas for a
non-exclusive political dialogue would emasculate President
Deby inside a multi-headed executive structure as part of a
"Government of Broad Union", created to implement a "National
Pact for Peace, Unity and Democracy" aimed at a
root-and-branch reform of the Chadian socio-political fabric
-- ideas unlikely to gain much traction with the President.
The sweeping scope of the proposals, including a gutting of
the state structure as currently under Deby's control, seems
entirely unrealistic as a starting point for dialogue. END
SUMMARY

NATIONAL PACT FOR PEACE,
UNITY AND DEMOCRACY
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2. (C) Pol/Econ Officer met June 8 with Salibou Garba, head
of the "AND" Party and member of the opposition umbrella
group Coordination of the Political Parties for the Defense
of the Constitution (CPDC). Garba sought to follow up on the
CPDC leadership's May 30 meeting with AF DAS Yamamoto
(reftel),and provided a draft set of ideas for a "road map"
toward peaceful political transition in Chad titled "Note for
the Attention of Mr. Donald Yamamoto -- Political Crisis in
Chad -- Framework for a Resolution". Garba stressed that he
was sharing the draft with us to get our input before making
the ideas public -- or even showing them to some CPDC
members, whom he did not trust to keep the proposals
confidential until they were ready for prime time.

SIPDIS


3. (C) The CPDC draft proposals open with a summary of the
current political crisis, which characterizes state
institutions, the ruling party and its allied organizations
as having no purpose other than serving the personal
interests of President Idriss Deby Itno. The CPDC proposal
calls for the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) and the
broader international community to address this "crisis of
legitimacy" through the facilitation of a "non-exclusive
dialogue". The objective of the dialogue is to be the
conclusion of a "National Pact for Peace, Unity, and
Democracy" that is to create a "Road Map" for socio-political
reform, to be implemented by a "Government of Broad Union".


4. (C) The CPDC road map calls for an "absorption" of armed
political groups into the National Pact, with an open door to
those who are not immediately ready to join to come in later.
Security forces are to be reformed to create a professional
army without ethnic, clan, or regional domination, and a
police and gendarmerie purged of executive influence.
Territorial and public administrations are to be
professionalized, decentralized, and purged of fictitious and
un-official employees. The justice system is to be
restructured, with a Special Commission to replace the
current High Council of Magistrates in order to identify and
sanction the Council's derogations of justice. Communal and
legislative elections are to be organized, based on a general
census, followed by an electoral census and the creation of
computerized electoral rolls.

Government of Broad Union
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5. (C) The CPDC draft proposes that a unity government
implement the road map. At its head would be a multi-headed
executive organ that would surround the President --
presumably, but not explicitly, President Deby -- with two
Vice Presidents and two Permanent Secretaries, which the
political parties, armed opposition, human rights
organizations and union representatives would somehow
designate. This "Executive" would provide moral authority
over the "Government for Peace, Unity and Democracy, drawn

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from the range of political forces in the country, and headed
by a Prime Minister from the political opposition with broad
powers to implement the road map of reforms.


6. (C) This institutional structure would require extensive
amendments to articles of the current constitution defining
the roles and powers of the President of the Republic and
Prime Minister. Indeed, the CPDC proposal recognized that,
given the perceived corruption of all the organs of state, it
will be necessary to review the powers of the National
Assembly, Constitutional Council, Supreme Court, and
Communication High Council -- proposing that all these be
either suspended or dissolved.

FOREIGNERS TO IMPOSE IT ALL
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7. (C) The CPDC, predicting obstruction and difficulties
emanating from the President, calls for a resolution of the
AU, or if necessary from the UN Security Council, creating an
international oversight committee to supervise the
implementation of the commitments that the parties to the
National Pact have made. The committee would draw its
membership from the AU and the United Nations, as well as the
USG and the EU. It would have responsibility for evaluating
the road map's implementation, proposing supplemental
measures, resolving diffculties, identifying
obstructionists, and proposig sanctions.


8. (C) The process to accomplish tis ambitious agenda would
begin with internationl apprval of the scheme, with the USG
to help sell it to the wider international community. Once
there is full support from the broad international community,
it will bear the responsibility for bringing President Deby
on board, through persuasion or coercion, as needed. The
CPDC would seek buy-in from civil society, unions and human
rights organizations -- with the help of the international
community.


9. (C) Almost as an after thought, the CPDC draft suggests
that all of the above might provide appropriate grist for a
Forum for National Dialogue. The international community
would, of course, be asked to set this up, including format,
time, place, and funding.

COMMENT
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10. (C) Short of demanding the immediate resignation of
President Deby, it is difficult to imagine a set of proposals
less likely to be embraced by the existing power structure.
The CPDC essentially calls for the dismantling of the State
as it currently exists, under international supervision --
hardly an idea that will gain traction in Chad's environment
of political stalemate and armed rebellion. In short,
there's not much to work with here. END COMMENT.


11. (U) Tripoli Minimize Considered.
WALL