DARFUR PEACE AGREEMENT UPDATE: N'DJAMENA ACTIVITIES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000706

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, AF/SPG, D, DRL, DS/IP/ITA,
DS/IP/AF, H, INR, INR/GGI, PRM, USAID/OTI AND USAID/W FOR
DAFURRMT; LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS; GENEVA FOR
CAMPBELL, ADDIS/NAIROBI/KAMPALA FOR REFCOORDS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREF CD SU
SUBJECT: DARFUR PEACE AGREEMENT UPDATE: N'DJAMENA ACTIVITIES

REF: A. STATE 078589

B. NDJAMENA 646

C. NDJAMENA 663

NDJAMENA 00000706 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) Summary: Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) faction
leader Minni Minnawi was warmly welcomed in N'Djamena, where
he is consulting with the Chadian Government, SLM followers
in Chad, non-governmental organizations, and the media.
Minni described his meetings with President Idriss Deby as
positive. Deby told Justice and Equality Movement President
Dr. Khalil Ibrahim that if he does not sign the Darfur Peace
Agreement by May 31, he must leave Chad. Minni remains
concerned about attempts by Khalil, Dr. Sharif Harir, and
Khamis Abdullah to attack and/or undermine him. He believes
that the Government of Sudan will do all it can to get
Abdelwahid to sign the DPA. In response to Ref A, post's DPA
implementation activities have focused on providing advisory
and administrative support to Minni Minnawi; briefing Chadian
Government officials at all levels on the DPA; working with
the DPA's opponents in Chad, including Dr. Sharif Harir, Dr.
Khalil Ibrahim, and National Movement for Reform and
Development; and dissemination of information about the
agreement to international and local journalists, refugee
camps, and local authorities. End Summary.

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CHADIAN RED CARPET
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2. (SBU) Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) faction leader
Minni Minnawi was surprised by his warm welcome in Chad on
May 12. Members of the Chadian Mediation team and Special
Advisor to the President Abderahamane Moussa met Minni as he
disembarked from the aircraft upon arrival from Abuja. The
Chadian Government has also put Minni up in the Novotel
Hotel. Minni has had two meetings with President Idriss
Deby. In the first, he reviewed the peace agreement with
Deby and explained the benefits for Chad of the disarmament
of the jandjaweed and the foreign combatants in Sudan.
According to Minni, Deby responded positively. Other members
of Deby's inner circle, such as Minister of Territorial
Administration Gen. Mahamat Ali Abdullah, remain skeptical of
the Government of Sudan's intentions, but are supportive of
the agreement. In the second (three-hour) meeting, on May
16, Deby included Justice and Equality Movement (JEM)
President Dr. Khalil Ibrahim without telling Minni.
According to Minni and the Chadian mediators present, Deby
told Khalil that the African Union Peace and Security Council
will brand him an outlaw if he does not sign the Darfur Peace
Agreement by the end of May. At that time, Deby said, Khalil
would no longer be welcome in Chad. Minni said that Khalil
was visibly shaken and surprised at Deby's position.

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RECRUITMENT FROM REFUGEE CAMPS BY ROGUE SLA ELEMENTS
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3. (SBU) Meanwhile, SLM's (former) Vice Chairman Khamis
Abdullah, JEM's Dr. Khalil Ibrahim, one of Minni's former
commanders Adam Bahkit, and a cousin of Deby named Bidet are
responsible for the heavy recruitment of men and boys from
the refugee camps in Chad, according to a variety of sources.
Reports last week from Treguine and Breidjing camps indicate
they are forcibly taking children from the camps.
Approximately 4,000 Sudanese refugees have been recruited.
In addition, the Abdullah-Khalil group was seen in Iriba with
17 landcruisers with weapons supplied by President Deby's
brother Daoussa.


4. (SBU) Theories about Khamis and Khalil's objectives
abound. The most likely explanation is that they are
recruiting forces to defend Deby against Chadian rebels. A
second likely rationale is that they are recruiting to attack
Minni and Abdelwahid. A third motivation, but more likely a
cover story, is that they are arming the refugees to defend
themselves against increasing jandjaweed incursions. Members

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of the groups claim that the refugees at Goz Amir were
attacked by Chadian rebels and jandjaweed earlier in April
because of their ties to the Sudanese Liberation
Movement/Army.

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MINNI MEETS THE PRESS
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5. (SBU) The Chadian Government arranged a widely-attended
press conference for Minni at a local hotel. The questions
focused on whether or not Minni was pressured into signing
the agreement and what effect the peace agreement will have
on the deteriorating security situation in eastern Chad.
Minni said that he was not pressured into choosing peace over
war in Darfur. Rather, those who did not choose peace may
have been pressured. He stated that members of his faction
are in Darfur meeting with militants explaining the gains
that will come with the agreement and that it will be adopted
by the Revolutionary Council of SLM soon. One reporter asked
him about a recent agreement signed in Khartoum. (Minni has
a copy of an agreement between Adam Shogar and Mutrif Sadiq
signed in Khartoum which contains verbatim some text from the
DPA.) Minni reminded the journalists that the DPA is the
only agreement signed between the rebels and the Government
of Sudan this year and it has the support of the
international community. He expressed his hope that the
other rebel movements will sign the accord and said he is
open to dialogue with Abdelwahid and Dr. Khalil. Regarding
Chad's security, Minni cited provisions for the disarmament
of the jandjaweed and foreign combatants that could help
alleviate border tensions.


6. (SBU) Embassy facilitated an interview for Minni with
CNN's Nic Robertson on May 15. The series of programs
entitled "Crisis in Chad" began airing on CNN International
on May 17 and is examining the recruitment of children out of
the refugee camps and increased jandjaweed attacks in
southeastern Chad. Minni outlined the benefits of the
agreement for Darfur and for Chad. He also told Robertson
that his former SLA colleagues were behind the recruitment in
the camps.

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OUTREACH TO NAYSAYERS, SPOILERS
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7. (SBU) On May 16, P/E officer met with Dr. Sharif Harir
and Adam Shogar, two of Minni's and the DPA's greatest
detractors. Ambassador and DCM had met previously with Harir
(Ref B). Harir's only explanation for his opposition, after
reading the two copies provided by Embassy, was that the DPA
does not meet the central demand of the refugees for
compensation. P/E officer asked Harir to go through the
agreement again and return to provide suggestions that the
implementation process could address. Embassy is also
reaching out to Dr. Khalil Ibrahim, who is in N'Djamena, to
see if he might have changed his position now that the
Chadian Government has weighed in with him. National
Movement for Reform and Development (NMRD) is meeting with
P/E officer on May 19.


8. (SBU) Minni has recently met with some of Dr. Sharif
Harir's supporters. Perhaps as a result of this, for the
first time, he has expressed concern about the lack of an
amnesty provision in the accord this week. Harir told P/E
officer on May 16 that no one should avoid prosecution, even
signatories to the agreement, implying Minni. Harir bears a
grudge from the spring of 2005 when he received support from
the Government of Chad to go to the border area to undermine
Minni. Minni's forces prevented Harir from entering Darfur
and instead spread money and their message in the refugee
camps and in the Tine area. Harir said that Minni's troops
tried to kill him last year. According to UNHCR, Harir used
one of his relatives in Oure Cassoni refugee camp as a focal
point to buy supporters. At that time, the Chadian

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Government unceremoniously pulled Harir and Shogar back from
the border, seizing their landcruisers, money, and Thuraya
telephones.


9. (SBU) For his part, Minni told us that he does not trust
the British because they favor the Fur tribe in Darfur. He
said that the British do not trust the Zaghawa and will work
hard to give Abdelwahid whatever he wants to sign. P/E
officer responded that each international partner can play a
different role and if the U.K. can deliver Abdelwahid's
signature, that only helps the agreement's credibility, and
by extension, Minni's. Nonetheless, SLM-Minnawi faction
suspicions of U.K. intentions were circulated frequently by
members of Minni's inner circle from January through March in
Abuja. This distrust is a reality for Minni and his
associates.

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POST ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF DPA
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10. (SBU) P/E officer returned to N'Djamena with Minni and
the other rebel movements. P/E officer meets with Minni
daily to provide advice, consult with him on implementation,
and furnish information packages, which include African Union
and U.N. communiques and other press articles, and connecting
Minni with AU mediators working with Abdelwahid Nur. In
addition, post is preparing an implementation calendar for
Minni to clarify tasks and upcoming deadlines. On May 14,
post arranged for Minni to meet with the director of
INTERNEWS, the non-governmental organization running radio
stations in the refugee camps in Chad, to discuss
dissemination of information about the peace accord via
radio. Post also provided Chadian Government officials and
Minni with copies of the DPA in Arabic, English, and French
for their roundtable discussion with Minni on May 13. On May
16, P/E officer briefed UNHCR and its NGO partners on the
agreement and discussed options on how best to deliver the
agreement to the refugee committees. P/E officer will travel
with UNHCR Country Director from May 22-25 to brief refugees
in Chad and local Chadian officials on the benefits of the
agreement as well as deliver copies of the agreement to each
camp.


11. (U) Ambassador Wall hosted Minni, the Chad Mediation
team, and the Minister of Territorial Administration for
lunch in recognition of their role as peacemakers on May 17.
He discussed the issue with President Deby May 9 (ref C) and
has raised it repeatedly in meetings with Chadian officials
and civil society leaders in N'Djamena and during a trip to
eastern Chad May 10-11. Over the last week he explained the
importance of the agreement and highlighted U.S. efforts to
implement it in interviews with local and international
journalists (e.g., CNN, BBC, Reuters).

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COMMENT
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12. (SBU) Minni continues to perform well in N'Djamena,
despite being under significant pressure. We need to help
focus him on implementation of the agreement, including
nominations for positions and setting up physical
infrastructure in Darfur. He has had virtually no contact
with the African Union since his arrival in N'Djamena, a
connection post continues to pursue by updating the AU on his
activities and passing along contact information to various
officials. N'Djamena will continue to grow in importance as
a platform for key actors involved in making the DPA a
reality, and post's reporting, negotiating, advising, and
facilitating services will be similarly called upon. With
the planned departure of post's Pol/Econ officer, Pol/Econ
staffing at Embassy N'Djamena must remain a priority.
WALL