Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NDJAMENA705
2006-05-18 14:45:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ndjamena
Cable title:  

CHAD'S ARCHBISHOP GIVES STARK

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM CD ASEC 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3758
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1137
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 0363
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0767
RUEHBP/AMEMBASSY BAMAKO 0624
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 1179
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1059
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0221
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0854
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RUEHNM/AMEMBASSY NIAMEY 2671
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0564
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RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 1176
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0763
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000705 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C AND AF/PD, LONDON
AND PARIS FOR AFRICA-WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CD ASEC
SUBJECT: CHAD'S ARCHBISHOP GIVES STARK
ANALYSIS


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000705

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C AND AF/PD, LONDON
AND PARIS FOR AFRICA-WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CD ASEC
SUBJECT: CHAD'S ARCHBISHOP GIVES STARK
ANALYSIS



1. (SBU) Summary: There is no hope for a dialogue on
Chad's political future as long as President Deby remains
in power, according to Chad's influential Archbishop. In a
meeting with the Ambassador on May 17, the religious
expressed his view that, although President Deby had more
material with which to fight, the rebels still posed a real
threat. End Summary.


2. (U) On May 17, the Ambassador paid a call on Chad's
Catholic Archbishop, Monseigneur Ngarteri Mathias, at the
Archbishop's request. Monseigneur Mathias is one of the
most senior and well-respected religious figures in Chad.
He requested a meeting with the Ambassador in order to
discuss the current political situation in Chad, which he
views in very bleak terms.

--------------
Abuja Peace Accord
--------------


3. (U) The Ambassador and the Archbishop began their
discussion on the topic of the peace accord for Darfur
recently signed in Abuja, Nigeria. The Archbishop asked
how the Ambassador views the accord, and whether it
responds to the wishes of the USG. The Ambassador
responded that the accord is the best chance for a lasting
peace in the region.

--------------
Future of Chad
--------------


4. (SBU) The Ambassador noted that, while the Abuja
accord will help with peace on the Chad-Sudan border, it
cannot fully resolve Chad's internal conflict. The
Archbishop said that he had wished to test the nationalism
of both president Deby Itno and the rebel leaders in the
statement released by the Chadian Archdiocese prior to the
May 3 elections. [Note: the Archdiocese asked Deby Itno to
postpone the elections, the rebels to put down their arms,
and for all parties to sit down at a national round table to
dialogue and come to a peaceful political solution. End
Note]. The Archbishop said that he "wanted to know if
Deby Itno and the rebels were truly willing to dialogue, and
what they were willing to give up?" He said that Deby
Itno's reply was that he would begin dialogue after
elections. However, the Archbishop said, based on his
recent declarations to his own party, the MPS, there is now

no room left for dialogue. From the Archbishop's
perspective, if Deby Itno is a true nationalist and cares
about Chad, he must accept a transition based on the results
of a national forum/round table.



--------------
The Rebels are Coming
--------------


5. (SBU) In perhaps the starkest moment of their
discussion, the Archbishop voiced his concern that "unless
Deby accepts a transition, the rebels are coming, and there
will be war in N'Djamena." Asked by the Ambassador
whether the rebels pose a real threat, the Archbishop
replied that they do. He stated that, although Deby Itno
now has more material with which to fight, he still lacks the
manpower, that is the backing of a large majority of the
Chadian army. He predicted that the rebels will begin their
next assault by taking a major town, such as Adre, and
holding it as a base. To this, the Ambassador emphasized
recent statements from the Embassy and Washington
condemning any attempt to take power by force in Chad,

NDJAMENA 00000705 002 OF 003


and encouraging a national dialogue and a more inclusive
political process.

--------------
National Dialogue?
--------------


6. (SBU) The Archbishop emphasized the urgent need to
organize a national forum or round table to begin dialogue
between the government, opposition, and civil society.
However, he said that neither he nor the vast majority of
Chadians view Deby Itno as their legitimately elected
leader. Therefore, a forum or round table that includes his
participation as president is meaningless. He stated that
Deby Itno continues to be at the center of Chad's political
impasse, for several reasons. First, from the Archbishop's
perspective, Deby Itno has not allowed opposition parties
to fully and openly participate in the political process, and
in fact has actively discouraged their participation through
bribes and pay-offs. Second, Deby Itno amended the
constitution, against the will of a large majority of
Chadians, according to the Archbishop. Third, he refused
requests to postpone elections. Fourth, he has consistently
refused to dialogue with the armed opposition. Finally, his
recent pronouncements to his MPS party indicate his
unwillingness to dialogue. These points lead the
Archbishop to conclude that, in the current political
climate, all doors to dialogue are closed. " Deby is the
problem, and we cannot move ahead with him as
president," the Archbishop said.

--------------
The "Cote d'Ivoire Solution"
--------------


7. (SBU) The Ambassador, playing devil's advocate,
asked the Archbishop whether, if Deby Itno accepted an
opposition government as part of a round table agreement,
a peaceful future was possible for Chad during Deby Itno's
new five year mandate. The Archbishop replied that
neither the "Cote d'Ivoire solution" nor the "TOGO solution"
both cases where African presidents agreed to share
power will work in the Chadian context. This for the
simple reason that Deby Itno controls the military. A prime
minister with strong executive powers would be weak in
the face of Deby Itno and his military, the Archbishop said.


8. (SBU) If there is a political solution to the region's
s
problems, the Archbishop said, it must involve a strong
U.N. presence on the border, and active and positive roles
for both the Government of Sudan and the Arab nations
that support Sudan. He also pointed out that Libya has
been involved in every major change in power in Chad in
recent years, but that perhaps they can be encouraged by
the United States to remain neutral, given the recent
warming in relations between the two. Finally, the
Archbishop emphasized at several points throughout the
conversation that nothing can move ahead in Chad without
the help of the French. "The French can torpedo any effort
to open the political process here," the Archbishop said.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) The Archbishop's comments express in stark
terms the frustrations shared by many in Chad's civil
society groups and its political opposition in the aftermath
of the May 3 elections. His views show the deep mistrust
that must be overcome before Chadians can begin to come
to terms with their country's political future.

NDJAMENA 00000705 003 OF 003




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