Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NDJAMENA684
2006-05-15 16:35:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ndjamena
Cable title:  

CHAD: ELECTION RESULTS

Tags:  CD KDEM PGOV PHUM PREF 
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VZCZCXYZ0007
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNJ #0684/01 1351635
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151635Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3733
INFO RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 1127
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 0759
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM PRIORITY 0213
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1378
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 0556
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1769
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PRIORITY 1166
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0755
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000684 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CD KDEM PGOV PHUM PREF
SUBJECT: CHAD: ELECTION RESULTS

REF: A. N'DJAMENA 662

B. N'DJAMENA 661

C. N'DJAMENA 612

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000684

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CD KDEM PGOV PHUM PREF
SUBJECT: CHAD: ELECTION RESULTS

REF: A. N'DJAMENA 662

B. N'DJAMENA 661

C. N'DJAMENA 612


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Representing what most observers
considered a formality, the National Independent
Electoral Commission (CENI) announced last night that
President Idriss Deby Itno was the projected winner of
the May 3 presidential election. According to the
preliminary results, which must be certified
by the Constitutional Council by May 28, Deby won 77.53
percent of the national vote, which dwarfs his victory
in the 2001 presidential election, in which he won 63
percent of the vote. In every region he largely
demolished his four modest "competitors," who were either
members of the governing coalition or unknown to the
public. Each of the opposing candidates garnered between
3.67 and 8.81 percent of the national vote. The CENI's
preliminary results projected that voter turnout was
61.49 percent, less than the 70-percent range predicted
recently by the CENI but far greater than what most
credible sources estimated, which was between 10 and
20 percent, at least in N'Djamena. President Deby
celebrated his election victory Sunday night after the
preliminary results were read by paying tribute to the
Chadian people and underlining the results as proof that
democracy works in Chad and that Chad is advancing.


2. (SBU) President Idriss Deby Itno, in power since 1990,
won the May 3 presidential election with 77.53 percent
of the vote, according to preliminary election results
announced last night by the CENI. According to the CENI's
preliminary results, which must be certified
by the Constitutional Council by May 28, Deby won 77.53
percent of the national vote, which dwarfs his victory
in the 2001 presidential election, in which he won 63
percent of the vote. In every region he largely demolished
his four modest "competitors," who were either members of
the governing coalition or unknown to the public. Each
of the opposing candidates garnered between 3.67 and
8.81 percent of the national vote.

--------------
Voter Turnout
--------------


3. (SBU) The CENI's preliminary results projected that
voter turnout among the country's 5,697,922 registered
voters was 61.49 percent, less than the 70-percent
range predicted in recent weeks by the CENI but far

greater than what most credible sources estimated, which
was between 10 and 20 percent, at least in N'Djamena.
(NOTE: Of the 3,503,538 voters who participated, more
than 152 thousand of the ballots cast were declared null
and void or invalid. END NOTE.) The voter turnout of
N'Djamena was projected to be 38.72 percent.

--------------
The Also-Rans
--------------


4. (SBU) Former Prime minister Kassire Coumakoye
(National Rally for Democracy, Viva-RNDP) came in second
with 8.81 percent of the national vote. He was followed
by Minister of Agriculture Albert Pahimi Padacke
(National Rally of Chadian Democrats, RNDT-Le Reveil)
with 5.35 percent, Delegated Minister for
Decentralization Mahamat Abdoulaye (Movement for Peace
and Development in Chad, MPDT) with 4.64 percent, and a
largely unknown candidate, Brahim Koulamallah (Renewed
African Socialist Movement, MSA/R),with 3.67 percent.

-------------- --
Presidential Celebration: Gunning for Democracy
-------------- --


5. (SBU) President Deby celebrated his election victory
Sunday night after the preliminary results were read by
paying tribute to the Chadian people during a brief
late-night declaration to members of the press gathered
at the Presidency. Deby said the victory "disproved those
who said Chad was going to explode" and that the
preliminary results were proof that "democracy works in
Chad and that Chad is advancing." However, some residents
of N'Djamena might have wondered if the country was
exploding when soldiers and residents saluted Deby's
victory by firing AK-47s into the N'Djamena sky late on
Sunday night.

--------------
A Date to Be Written in Gold
--------------


6. (SBU) Before the preliminary results were read
for each of the country's 50 departments, CENI President
Ahamat Mahamat Bashir proclaimed that "the date of May 14,
2006 must be written in letters of gold" because the
Chadian people have given a lesson in maturity."
For some in the audience, however, the date might be
less memorable: some of the 150 journalists and election
observers who attended the five-hour-long reading of the
results (in French and in Arabic) fell asleep, as did two
members of the CENI panel members seated in front of the
microphones and cameras. In addition, impatient journalists
eager for the final country-wide results, which were saved
for the very end, showed their disinterest throughout the
evening by talking on cell phones, despite CENI's appeals
for silence. Other indications that the date might not be
written in gold included the complete absence of the
political opposition and some discrepancies between
voting totals read aloud by CENI members and the totals
displayed on a screen over their heads (NOTE: Despite moans
and shouts from confused journalists, these discrepancies
were never addressed. END NOTE.)

--------------
Voting Patterns of Note
--------------



7. (SBU) Deby garnered the most votes in every region,
according to the CENI. There were three regions where Deby
did not win 50 percent of the vote: Logone Occidental
(47.04 percent),Mayo-Kebi Ouest (46.3 percent),and
Tandjile (47.31 percent). There were six regions in
which one of Deby's opponents won more than 15 percent:
Guera (Kassire won 26.56 percent),Logone Occidental
(Kassire won 18.24 percent and Pahimi won 15.38 percent),
Mandoul (Kassire won 16.41 percent),Mayo-Kebi Ouest
(Pahimi won 26.10 percent),Moyen Chari (Kassire won 21.55
percent),and Tandjile (Kassire won 33.94 percent).

--------------
Voting Breakdown Region by Region
--------------


8. (SBU) In descending order, according to the number of
registered voters (given in parentheses),the following is
a breakdown of voter participation in each of the country's
17 regions, as well as in N'Djamena and abroad. The
percentage of votes won by Deby is also given.

Commune (city) N'Djamena (630,095): 38.72 percent
(Deby won 71.52 percent)

Ouddai (513,581): 81.15 percent
(Deby won 83.79 percent)

Voting by Expatriates Outside Chad (421,947): (inaudible)
(Deby won 82.26 percent)

Mayo-Kebi Est (358,425): 59.02 percent
(Deby won 69.14 percent)

Hadjer-Lamis (335,383): 82 percent
(Deby won 93 percent)

Batha (320,395): more than 60 percent (inaudible)
(Deby won 94.65 percent)

Kanem: (307, 137): 80.68 percent
(Deby won 91.54 percent)

Chari-Banguirmi (285,975): 76 percent
(Deby won 85.3 percent)
Logone Occidental (282,490): 87.5 percent
(Deby won 47.04 percent)

Logone Oriental (282,391): 54.44 percent
(Deby won 67.05 percent)

Moyen Chari (267,751): 40.27 percent
(Deby won 52.63 percent)

Tandjile (267,194): (inaudible)
(Deby won 47.31 percent)

Mandoul (260,586): 53.59 percent
(Deby won 61.3 percent)

Mayo-Kebi Ouest (217,761): 46.30 percent
(Deby won 48.43 percent)

Lac (208,847): 83.50 percent
(Deby won 90.06 percent)

Guera (197,333): 63 percent
(Deby won 60.63 percent)

Wadi-Fira (197,284): 89.67 percent
(Deby won 86.27 percent)

Salamat (185,390): 73.58 percent
(Deby won 86.36 percent)

Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti (101,083): 85 percent
(Deby won 90.08 percent)

--------------
Voting Breakdown for the City of N'Djamena
--------------


9. (SBU) According to the CENI, in N'Djamena 38.72
percent of the city's 630,095 registered voters
participated. Below is a district-by-district breakdown
of voter participation in N'Djamena. Embassy election
observer teams in N'Djamena estimated a voter
turnout of between 10 and 20 percent, with the lowest
turnouts seemingly in districts that have
traditionally favored the opposition. (NOTE: Districts
known to favor heavily the political opposition are the
5th, 6th, and 7th districts and are denoted with an
astrix below. END NOTE).

1st: 62.9 percent of 45,397 registered voters
(Deby won 47.19 percent)

2nd: 51.53 percent of 58,966 registered voters
(Deby won 75 percent)

3rd: 40.18 percent of 35,867 registered voters
(Deby won 54.13 percent)

4th: 32.26 percent of 105,445 registered voters
(Deby won 73 percent)

5th*: 30.50 percent of 61,009 registered voters
(Deby won 75 percent)

6th*: 32 percent of 42,993 registered voters
(Deby won 68 percent)

7th*: 25 percent of 100,888 registered voters
(Deby won 73.23 percent)

8th: 50 percent of 95,884 registered voters
(Deby won 85.11 percent)

9th: 39.9 percent of 45,388 registered voters
(Deby won 59.43 percent)

10th: 35.03 percent of 38,258 registered voters
(Deby won 83 percent)



10. (SBU) COMMENT: The projected overall voter
turnout announced by the CENI yesterday (61.49
percent) is more modest than the voter turnout it
announced after the June 2005 referendum (more than
70 percent),which the Constitutional Council
scaled back to 57.8 percent last year when it
certified the results. However, the voter turnout
projected by the CENI last night is still a
greatly bloated figure and underlines the dire
need to redraft the electoral code and reconfigure
the CENI, whose independence has always
been in serious doubt. In an election that was
boycotted by the political opposition and under
constant threat from rebel attacks from the East,
Deby's victory seems to solve none of his current
problems. The CENI numbers give Deby another
five-year term but also a very weak mandate. The
preliminary results also accentuate the need for
an honest dialogue between the GOC and its
international partners, one that strongly encourages
the GOC to construct credible voter lists based
on a new census and to engage the opposition and
rebels in a national dialogue. END COMMENT

WALL