CHAD'S FOREIGN MINISTER DEFENDS MAY 3 ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000592

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C O R R E C T E D COPY SUBJ LINE

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LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2008
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL CD
SUBJECT: CHAD'S FOREIGN MINISTER DEFENDS MAY 3 ELECTIONS,
BLAMES OPPOSITION FOR IMPASSE


Classified By: Ambassador Marc Wall for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Better to have a president chosen in
flawed elections than to risk the anarchy that a delay in
elections could provoke, according to Chad's Foreign
Minister. In other comments in his meeting with the
Ambassador April 21, he blamed the opposition for the
breakdown in dialogue; attributed unrest in Chad to Sudan's
malign ambitions and the conspiracy of Chadian rebels; and
argued that Deby's opponents are using his bid for a third
term in power as a pretext for trying to overthrow him. The
Foreign Minister did raise the possibility of new overtures
toward the opposition after the May 3 elections, an opening
we would like to explore during DAS Yamamoto's visit April
24-25. End Summary.


2. (C) At the request of Foreign Minister Ahmad Alam-mi,
the Ambassador called on him April 21. Alam-mi already had a
copy of the summary of the recent U.S. press guidance the
Ambassador had left with President Deby the day before.
Alam-mi took note of the statements calling on Chadians to
engage in dialogue to resolve their political differences.
He said President Deby had asked him to meet with the
Ambassador to explain the GOC's perspective.

Better a Faulty Election Now Than a Delay
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3. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's question whether or
not he disagreed with U.S. statements about the need for
dialogue, Alami-mi asserted that the government is in favor
of dialogue, but only with the political, not armed,
opposition. He acknowledged that dialogue had been blocked
for at least two years, but accused the opposition of being
responsible for that. They have insisted on President Deby's
removal from power as a precondition for engaging in
dialogue. They are fixated on the issue of President Deby's
bid for a third term in power. They believe it will be an
illegitimate mandate. That is what has led to the current
blockage, in his view.


4. (C) Alam-mi argued that Chad cannot delay the elections
due to be held May 3. Chad must have a president considered
to be "more or less legitimate." Even if the president is
elected by a faulty electoral process, that is better than no
elected president at all. NGO's are calling for a delay in
the elections, but that would only lead to an impasse and
possibly to chaos, he maintained.

The Source of Chad's Troubles is Sudan...
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5. (C) Turning to Sudan, Alam-mi stated that the armed
Chadian rebels are the source of instability now, especially
because of their support from Khartoum. He argued that
Khartoum does not want peace in Darfur. He said Khartoum
thinks Washington is backing the Sudanese rebels in Darfur.
Now it is pushing the Tama, Fur, Arabs, and other groups on
the border to destabilize Chad. Chad is at the divide
between the Arab and African worlds. If it collapses into
anarchy, it will destabilize the surrounding region.


6. (C) He reiterated the recent clarification of Chad's
position on refugees, i.e., because it could no longer
guarantee their security, the international community had to
step in. But how can security be assured, he wondered, if
Sudan opposes an international force in Darfur. For its
part, he said, Chad would be glad to accept a UN force on its
side of the border.

...Not the May 3 Elections or the Third Term Issue
-------------- --------------


7. (C) The Ambassador recalled the recent U.S. statements
condemning violence on the border and attempts to take power
by force. He asked how the elections, expected to be widely
boycotted and viewed as hopelessly flawed, would be able to
confer legitimacy. He pointed out that the government's
insistence on holding these elections as scheduled is
contributing to the current instability. He agreed with
Alam-mi's statement that the third term issue had helped

provoke much of the current unrest. He noted the U.S. stand
questioning Nigerian President Obasanjo's consideration of
overturning term limits and seeking a third term.


8. (C) Alam-mi responded that the elections had to take
place, even if the opposition thinks they are rigged.
Members in the MPS, the President's governing party, have the
right to disagree with the opposition's attempt to delay the
election. Everyone is for good governance, but the country
cannot risk opening the door to anarchy. Furthermore, he
argued, it is not the elections causing unrest. It is rather
Darfur, and the conspiracy of some Chadians to seize power,
that it doing so. If the third term issue has led to
instability, that is the fault of others. It provides the
pretext for the opposition to try to get rid of Deby, he
claimed.

The Time for Dialogue is after Elections
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9. (C) The Ambassador observed that Chadians now have no
hope that "alternance" (i.e., a peaceful change in leaders)
will ever be possible. Alam-mi responded that the referendum
overturning constitutional term limits was valid. Deby will
not be "president-for-life," he stated. After the elections,
he continued, the government will seek to open a dialogue
with the opposition and set the stage for a new electoral
process.

Comment
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10. (C) Alam-mi dismisses far too easily the extent to which
President Deby's refusal to lead, or even to acquiesce in, a
peaceful transition has sowed the seeds for the many troubles
he now confronts. We look forward to probing Alam-mi's
comments on plans to reach out to President Deby's opponents
after the elections in our exchanges during DAS Yamamoto's
visit April 24-25.
WALL