CHAD: UNDP CONVENES OPPOSITION AND AMBASSADORS

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000427

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, INR, DRL, DS/IP/AF, DS/IP/ITA;
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM CD
SUBJECT: CHAD: UNDP CONVENES OPPOSITION AND AMBASSADORS

REF: A. A. NDJAMENA 421


B. B. NDJAMENA 352


1. (SBU) Summary: UNDP resrep invited hand-picked key
opposition leaders for an unprecedented discussion March 16,
with U.S. and French ambassadors present. CPDC members and
Yorongar stated their willingness to engage in national
dialogue but emphasized that the blame lay on President Deby
for refusing to engage. They did not believe that a credible
election was possible on May 3 and even indicated a
willingness to join in toppling Deby by force of arms. The
French ambassador countered pointed criticisms but avoided
frontal pressure on the opposition. UNDP resrep said he
chose to interpret the meeting positively and would meet Deby
again, to try to explore his willingness to engage in
dialogue. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Undaunted by the previous day's (1) revelation of a
coup attempt or plot on March 14 and (2) communique from the
opposition coalition CPDC stating its categorical
unwillingness to participate in the May 3 election (ref A),
Resident Representative of the United Nations Development
Program Kingsley Amaning March 16 convened an unprecedented
meeting of the principal CPDC figures plus Ngarlejy Yorongar,
with the French and American ambassadors, the German charge,
and representatives of the European Union and African Union
present. From the CPDC were Saleh Kebzabo, Lol Mahamat
Choua, Ibni Oumar Mahamat Saleh, Salibou Garba, and
representatives of Wadal Abdelkader Kamougue and Jean Bawoyeu
Allingue (traveling). The tone remained civil throughout. A
key object was to give the opposition the message --
including from French ambassador Jean-Pierre Bercot -- of
respect and concern from the international community.


3. (SBU) In a closed meeting among the UNDP and diplomats
before the larger meeting, Bercot said he had met President
Deby earlier in the day to discuss the coup attempt/plot and
to indicate to him that this meeting with the opposition was
to take place. Bercot claimed that he had suggested to
Amaning that the meeting be organized. He said that he had
agreed with Amaning that the UNDP and diplomats should not
put pressure on the opposition to participate in the election
but simply offer assistance.


4. (SBU) Amaning commenced the larger meeting with a review
of agreed principles - stability, reduction of poverty, human
rights, good governance -- and his hope to find a way to
overcome the crisis of confidence separating the opposition
and government in order to begin serous electoral reform.


5. (SBU) The opposition deferred to Saleh Kebzabo to make
opening remarks. Kebzabo spoke calmly and coherently and not
at undue length, more in sadness than anger. He reviewed the
consistent efforts of the opposition over 13 years, since the
national conference of 1993, to participate peaceably in a
democratic process, but the regime had rigged every election.
Even after the utterly fraudulent June referendum, the
opposition had met Deby in September and given him a detailed
and achievable program for electoral reform. Deby had
promised to respond but he had not done so, until now through
UNDP when it was much too late to institute the reforms that
would make the May 3 election legitimate. It was not
necessary for the government to operate through UNDP; it
needed only to pick up the telephone directly to the
opposition. In November, Deby had added insult to injury by
saying he knew all the opposition well, that he had "used"
them all when they had variously served in his government; in
fact, Kebzabo said, each had, in his own way, tried to serve
his country, but ended up being dismissed as "used." Any
effort and money that the international community offered to
finance this election, or indeed any development effort in
the country under this regime, would be a waste. Kebzabo
said that he would not participate in the May 3 election. In
fact, the CPDC would do everything in its power to try to
ensure that the election did not take place. Lol Mahamat
Choua endorsed Kebzabo's remarks, adding the CPDC would "use
all of our force" to oppose the May 3 election.

6. (SBU) Yorongar, though not a member of CPDC, also
endorsed Kebzabo's remarks. He handed out a letter to the
UNDP and diplomats, specifying the requirement that the
presidential election be delayed six months if electoral
reform were have any meaning. Unlike the CPDC speakers,
Yorongar charged France with duping the opposition and using
its army to save Deby, and he cited a Benin newspaper that
had quoted Deby, "If I guarantee the interests of France and
Libya, I will stay in power all my life." He dismissed the
French concern about the "juridical void" that would be
caused by extending Deby's term briefly, noting that there
had been no objection to deferring constitutionally required
legislative elections from 2001 to 2002. He concluded that
if the only way to get rid of Deby were use of force, he
would have to subscribe to it.


7. (SBU) Salibou Garba and Ibni Oumar Mahamat Saleh made
brief remarks, emphasizing that there was not much point
convening the CPDC about national dialogue, since it had been
pressing for one without relent, with no response from the
regime. It was inexcusable to allow Chad to follow the
pattern of extended presidential terms as in Togo.


8. (SBU) Bercot spoke relatively briefly and temperately.
France, he said, had files on all the persons in the room and
knew well what roles they had played. He regretted having to
take note of Kebzabo's and Yorongar's reference to use of
force. He made no claim to being a constitutional expert but
thought a juridical void was a serious matter. As for the
claim that France was somehow seeking to ensure any party's
hold on power, it was well to be aware of how little economic
interest France now had in Chad. He might personally regret
what happened in countries such as Togo, but the fact was
that the international community had repeatedly swallowed
extension of presidential terms, most recently in Uganda.
The main point he wished to make was that France, both in its
own capacity and as member of the European Union, sought to
help Chad toward a peaceful transition, not as a go-between
or facilitator, but as a neutral observer eager to assist
Chad in promoting a democratic process.


9. (SBU) Amaning concluded the three-hour meeting saying
that he was pleased to confirm the opposition's keenness to
pursue dialogue toward genuine electoral reform and he would
now pursue the matter further with the president and
government. (Note: An AFP report March 17, citing a CPDC
spokesman, stated incorrectly that the "donors requested the
opposition to participate in the May 3 election.")


10. (SBU) Comment: This assembly was noteworthy if for no
other reason than that it took place at all. This was the
first such gathering in our memory of key members of the
opposition and represetatives of the diplomatic corps,
including the French ambassador, whose relations with some
opposition members are distinctly frosty. Despite the
meeting's positive atmospherics, prospects of getting the two
sides to sit down for serious discussions about the elections
are far from encouraging. End Comment.
WALL