CHAD: OPPOSITION ADAMANT ABOUT BOYCOTTING ELECTION

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000400

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, INR, DRL, DS/IP/AF, DS/IP/ITA;
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM CD
SUBJECT: CHAD: OPPOSITION ADAMANT ABOUT BOYCOTTING ELECTION

REF: A. A. NDJAMENA 351


B. B. NDJAMENA 352


1. (SBU) Summary: The opposition coalition rejects UNDP's
proposal for participating in the May 3 election and intends
to call for boycott and, possibly, obstruction of the
election. End Summary


2. (SBU) On March 8 Poloff called on Lol Mahamat Choua,
leader of the Kanembou ethnicity (northeast of Lake Chad) and
one of the principal figures in Chad's opposition coalition
CPDC. Poloff asked Lol if he had been contacted by UNDP
resrep Amaning, and if so, what he thought of the latter's
proposals. (Per ref B, Amaning met President Deby March 1
and floated with him the idea of attracting the opposition
into the May 3 election with the inducement of serious
electoral reform targeted at subsequent communal and
legislative elections.) Lol said he had met Amaning the
previous evening and told him that, while he appreciated
Amaning's effort, the CPDC totally rejected the proposal.


3. (SBU) Lol said that the opposition (and, in fact, he
claimed, the entire Chadian population) was fed up with Deby.
The last straw was the fradulent referendum last summer
that changed the constitution to allow Deby to run for a
third term. (Note: Lol agreed to participate in the 2001
presidential election under the promise from Deby that he
would not run again.) Amaning's idea to begin electoral
reform with a view to the communal and legislative elections,
according to Lol, suffered the major flaw that the election
that really mattered in Chad was the presidential election.
Once Deby was reelected, he would instantly go back on his
promise to UNDP. He would not accept free communal and
legislative elections, based on his track record of lies over
15 years.


4. (SBU) Asked what role the CPDC intended to play in the
coming election, Lol said that the CPDC would not only
boycott the election, it would call for obstruction of the
election. Lol said that he had always rejected any form of
violence in the political arena, but he admitted that
"obstruction" could involve violence, because opposition
supporters would respond to anticipated violence from the
government with violence.


5. (SBU) Lol was bitterly critical of French support of
Deby. "We are no longer a colony of France." The French, he
said, took a dismal view of Chad which was incorrect. Chad
was not, he said, a country riven by unbridgeable ethnic and
religious divides; it was not a difficult country to govern.
Deby was not the source of security and stability; he was the
cause of insecurity and instability. Asked about the
February 7 demonstration against the Danish cartoons, which
had turned violent, Lol (a Muslim) insisted that episode was
staged by Deby ("no demonstration occurs in Chad if Deby does
not order it") and should not be taken as evidence of
inter-religious discord. A few hooligans had given a bad
name to Islam in Chad. But Lol also regretted that the
Saudis and Libyans had been pouring money into building
mosques rather than schools.


6. (SBU) The previous day, May 7, poloff called on another
member of CPDC, Salibou Garba (Christian from Moundou).
Garba had not yet seen Amaning, but his remarks suggested
that he would be equally hostile to any proposition that
suggested participation in the May 3 election. He also
described the overland trip that the CPDC leaders had just
made to Moundou in the South, where unexpectedly large crowds
had gathered despite the myriad blockages thrown in their way
by the government. He noted that Saleh Kebzabo (opposition
leader from Lere in the South),who he said normally was not
the most outspoken of the principal CPDC figures, had
addressed the crowd and specifically called on them to
obstruct the coming election, to which he received a raucous
ovation. Garba acknowledged the violent overtones of this
call to obstruction. In a interview with an opposition
newspaper March 9, another leading member of the CPDC, Ibni
Oumar Mahamat Saleh (Muslim from Biltine),was quoted saying,
"We will use every means in our possession to obstruct the
holding of this election." He said that the CPDC had
demonstrated its cohesion over the two years of its existence
and would remain a unified force.


7. (SBU) On May 9, poloff called on another prominent
member of the CPDC, General Wadal Abdelkader Kamougue
(Christian from Sarh). The elderly Kamougue had not
accompanied his colleagues to the South, for health reasons,
nor had he yet talked with the UNDP resrep. He said his
position was simple: he and the other members of the CPDC
would totally boycott the May 3 election. Asked whether he
any other strategy for May 3, he said no, just stay home.
Bitter in his condemnation of the Deby regime and with French
support for it, Kamougue however gave an opposing analysis to
Lol's: Chad was a very divided country and indeed difficult
to govern, and the roots of the problem lay with the French
colonial policy, which did not seek to bind north, center,
and south together but administered them separately so there
was no concept of nation at independence. Comment: Either
way, the French get the blame.


8. (SBU) Meanwhile, the third congress of the ruling party
MPS concluded May 8, dragging on to five days, three days
longer than expected. The issue of debate was whether to
keep on Mahamat Hisseine as MPS's Secretary General. Most
local observers expected him to be replaced, on account of
the low voter turnout for the June 6 referendum. He gave a
spirited speech to the congress defending his record,
condemning corruption and lethargy in the party, and berating
the government for inefficiency. Deby pondered what to do
for two days while party stalwarts cooled their heels at the
congress, and then he decided to keep Mahamat Hisseine in
place. Comment: Deby may have viewed this indirect
criticism as a form of healthy letting off steam as well as a
useful message to the party faithful to redouble their
efforts for the coming election.
TAMLYN