CHAD: GOVERNMENT EXPRESSES WILLINGNESS TO WORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000252

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, INR, DRL, DS/IP/AF, DS/IP/ITA;
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM CD
SUBJECT: CHAD: GOVERNMENT EXPRESSES WILLINGNESS TO WORK
WITH OPPOSITION ON ELECTIONS, DONORS SKEPTICAL

Classified By: E/C Officer Jitu Sardar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Chadian Government convoked the
diplomatic corps to state its willingness to talk the
opposition about participation in the electoral process and
to welcome donor assistance for the upcoming elections.
Members of the diplomatic corps asked the Government what
actions it had taken to convince the opposition to end its
boycott of the process and suggested an organization or
country with "moral authority" be engaged to help facilitate
the dialogue and the elections. The European ambassadors in
Chad approached the opposition, for the first time, to
discuss their conditions for dialogue. The opposition cited
President Idriss Deby's poor track record in conducting free
and fair elections, but asked the Europeans to determine if
Deby is genuinely willing to hold a transparent elections.
The opposition says that France is growing increasingly
concerned about the upcoming elections and is intensifying
its efforts to persuade them to participate. While all the
elements of a Government-opposition impasse remain, the
diplomatic community is in agreement that something must be
done about the upcoming elections fast. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On February 20, the Chadian Government convened a
meeting of the diplomatic corps to discuss preparations for
the upcoming presidential elections. Minister of Territorial
Administration Mahamat Ali Abdullah stated that the GOC
intends on establishing dialogue with the opposition parties,
particularly the Coalition of Parties for the Defense of the
Constitution and the Federalist party. Ali stated that the
GOC, has already begun of the revision of the electoral list
and hopes to complete the process by March 8. He is prepared
to interact with any political party that wishes to further
the election planning process. The Minister noted that while
the GOC has installed the Independent National Election
Commission (CENI) and is open to the inclusion of opposition
parties. (Note: The opposition refuses to join the CENI
because it says it will not legitimize what it views as a
fraudulent election process designed to keep Deby in power
for life. End Note.) Ali added that the GOC welcomes any
support from the donor community to help prepare for the
presidential elections. The Minister stated that the GOC is
concerned that timing is running out if a fair and
transparent presidential election is to be held before the
end of the current Government's mandate of August 8, 2006.


3. (SBU) Following his presentation, Ali permitted the
diplomatic corps to provide a response. French Ambassador
Jean-Pierre Bercot began by asking if the Coalition for the
Defence of the Constitution (CDPC) or Federalist party (FAR)
had accepted the Government's call for the establishment of
dialogue among the political parties. The Minister admitted
that the opposition parties had yet to accept the
Government's invitation for dialogue. Bercot then suggested
that in order for the opposition and GOC to come together,
the African Union could play a mediating role to bring the
parties together. The African Union's Ambassador Mahmoud
Kane stated that the AU was willing to play such a role, but
noted that the European Commission may be better placed,
given its higher level of resources. Bercot responded by
saying that while the EU could offer technical assistance for
the planning of the elections, the AU should act as the
"moral supranational entity" that pushes the opposition and
GOC to began dialogue.


4. (C) After the Government representatives departed, the
diplomatic corps, at the request of the AU Ambassador, met
separately to pursue Bercot's proposal of an enhanced AU role
in the dialogue. UNDP Representative Kingsley Amaning stated
that the United Nations, which had spent over a year trying
to promote a positive environment for the elections, was
extremely frustrated by a lack of commitment by the GOC and
opposition to proposed UNDP reforms. Given the pervasive
skepticism of the Government's willingness to hold fair
election, Amaning stated he and his colleagues feared that an
illegitimate election would cause the Chadian political
system to collapse. He stated that an intervention by the
African Union, if positive and persuasive, could help to
re-build the level confidence among the respective parties,

and help to salvage the presidential elections for 2006. The
AU Ambassador stated that he would examine the possibility of
a role by the African Union in facilitating dialogue between
the GOC and opposition, and coordinate a discussion with his
colleagues in Addis Ababa.

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OPPOSITION DOUBTS LINGER
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5. (C) The opposition continues to view the Government's
public statements as posturing. Salibu Ngarba, the
spokesperson for the CDPC, said that the Government shows no
signs of fixing the electoral process. For example, there
has been no response from President Idriss Deby to the
opposition's ideas on the elections and potential transition
that were made in September 2005. Ngarba said the CDPC met
with the Ambassadors from France, Germany, and the European
Commission on February 15 at their request. It was the first
time the European embassies called on the opposition party
leaders, according to Ngarba. The European diplomats
described the situation as "grave". Bercot told the CDPC
that dialogue is not possible without the opposition and that
the election process as it stands is not viable. The French
Embassy's second secretary asked the CDPC its views on
prolonging Deby's mandate.


6. (C) The CDPC responded that it was willing to
participate in a dialogue depending on the answers to the
following questions : what is Deby's concept of dialogue and
what it the goal of the discussions; does Deby genuinely
desire a genuine dialogue, and will he accept a
methodological, rigorous approach in order to obtain
effective and durable results? In addition, the CDPC
outlined the Government's poor track record on elections,
including the public referendum. Ngarba told us that it will
be impossible for the Government to fix the fatally flawed
electoral list within two weeks. The basis for confidence in
the process begins with revision of the electoral list,
according to CDPC. Ngarba noted that it is now too late in
the game.


7. (C) When asked who can play a role in facilitating the
dialogue between the opposition and Deby, Ngarba replied that
the moral authority for ensuring a genuine electoral process
lies with the UNDP, the U.S., France, and European
Commission, not with the African Union. He said that the
French seems preoccupied with the Chadian elections and that
Bercot appears to be more anxious to have contact with the
opposition. P/E officer asked if Bercot is becoming a broker
between the opposition and Deby. Ngarba sees the recent
contacts as Bercot's attempt to do so, but the opposition
doubts his country's intentions.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) Donors and key diplomatic missions appear ready to
begin seriously discussing the election and transition
possibilities together for the first time, particularly the
French. However, we find Bercot's suggestion that the
African Union become involved as the moral authority in the
Chadian electoral process as curious and wonder where it
originated. The most qualified organization in Chad to
oversee elections is the UNDP, which its representative told
us will use this opportunity to once again approach Deby on
the process. Nonetheless, Deby's views remain the key to the
elections and we do not yet see any sign that he is willing
to implement a durable solution to Chad's transition
problems, much less hold a transparent election. The
opposition, while weak, is showing some signs of maturity and
is happy that the European missions appear interested in what
they have to say. The CDPC's core group of political party
remains more skeptical of Deby than ever. The CDPC's key
leverage point is their participation, which they will not
give without a serious, sustained commitment by the donors to
pressure Deby into allowing a transparent election and
subsequent oversight of the process, a tall order given an

August 8 deadline and no concrete overtures from Deby.
WALL