LULL IN CHAD REBEL ACTIVITY; GOC TRIES NEW TACK IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001444

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREF PREL SU CD
SUBJECT: LULL IN CHAD REBEL ACTIVITY; GOC TRIES NEW TACK IN
DAR SILA

REF: NDJAMENA 1423

Classified By: CHARGE LUCY TAMLYN FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D)


1. (SBU) Summary: Fighting between Chadian rebel forces and
the Chadian Army (ANT) has subsided since December 18.
Reports of a rapprochement between rebel FUC (United Front
for Change) leader Mahamat Nour and President Deby providing
for the integration of Nour forces into the ANT have not been
officially confirmed, but appear credible. The repored
formation of a united front between remainingrebel groups
UFDD (Union of Forces of Developmen and Democracy) and the
RaFD (Rally for the Formaion of Democracy) suggests that
losses have complled these leaders to join together.
Further souh, attacks by arab horsemen along the border with
Sudan in the Goz Beida area has heightened UNHCR concerns
regarding the security of refugees and displaced persons. It
appears that the Government of Chad (GOC) is also in dialogue
with arab leaders to put an end to interethnic violence. End
Summary.

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"THE PROMENADE IS FINISHED"
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2. (SBU) On Saturday December 17, President Idriss Deby Itno
met with FUC rebel leader Mahamat Nour in Guereda. Although
not officially confirmed by the government, the international
media has reported that this meeting resulted in a
rapprochement between FUC leader Mahamat Nour and President
Deby and an agreement to integrate FUC forces into the ANT.
The government-aligned newspaper "Le Progres" reported on
12/20 that President Deby's calls for reconciliation had
persuaded elements of (unnamed) rebel groups to request
reintegration into the security services, either individually
or in groups. President Deby extended his stay in eastern
Chad until 12/22. He is reported as describing the situation
as "totally under the control of the government. The
promenade is finished." Minister of Mines Mahamat Ali
Abdullah Nassour (former Minister of Territorial
Administration),a powerful member of Deby's inner circle,
has been sent to Biltine to be the resident Minister. The
French Embassy has apparently lifted travel restrictions on
French travelers, and advised its citizens that the rebel
movement incurred significant losses and will be unable to
launch major attacks in the near future.

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REMAINING REBEL ELEMENTS REGROUP
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3. (C) UFDD leader Mahamat Nouri claims that the deployment
of UFDD to Sudan was a tactical withdrawal to avoid being
caught between the rebel forces of Timan Erdimi's RaFD and
Adoum Togoi. However, reports that UFDD forces are
regrouping and being re-supplied by the Sudanese several
hundred kilometers to the east of the Chadian border in Nyala
suggest that they may have been seriously bloodied during
last week's fighting. A Koundoul-based Chadian army officer
told the Ambassador that in the wake of last week's fighting,
rebel leaders Nouri, Timan and Tom Erdimi have agreed to form
a united front, headed by Nouri, for the sole purpose of
reversing Chadian army advances. In this officer's view, the
groups would split once their immediate military objectives
in the east were met. He added that a coordinated offensive
to include attacks at Adre and Amtiman was expected to begin
in two to three weeks.



4. (C) In a conversation with the Ambassdor on December 21,
Ambassdaor Bechir (GOC Ambassador in Washington) said the GOC
has information that the Sudanese government is currently
resupplying the Chadian rebel groups after the losses they
incurred in Hadjer Marfaine. The GOS has provided 300
vehicles to the movements, and is allowing the rebel groups
temporary sanctuary in El Genina. Bechir also said that the
GOS is conditioning the assistance on the pledge by Mahamat
Nouri and Timan Erdimi to develop an alliance to launch
further attacks into Chad. Bechir said that he believes the
GOS will be successful in this endeavor (as opposed to past
instances),since Erdimi's RaFD has already fought alongside
Nouri's UFDD forces, and appears willing to fight with Nouri
following the death of RaFD's high-ranking military commander
Seby Aguid. Bechir also said that the GOC is aware of
contacts between Sudanese authorities and former Chadian
president Goukouni Weddaye, and contacts between the Sudanese
embassy in Washington and Tom Erdimi, RaFD member and
twin-brother of Timan who currently resides in the United
States.

NDJAMENA 00001444 002 OF 002



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ANT TAKES ON THE JANJAWEED IN DAR SILA
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5. (SBU) Inter-ethnic violence characterized by deadly raids
by men on horseback flared up December 15-17 in the southern
portion of Chad's border with Sudan, a heavily Dadjo area.
Rumors of impending attacks December 12-13 had caused tension
to rise among the local population, and local authorities
(including the Governor and the Sous-Prefet) attempted to
meet with chiefs of arab tribes to discuss the situation
without success. In the violence that followed, refugees from
Goz Amer camp (working in fields outside of the camp) were
attacked and Chadian National Refugee Commission (CNAR)
officials investigating the situation were ambushed and
assaulted. Interethnic violence in the towns of Habile and
Aradif burst out resulting in looting, theft of sheep and
goats, many injuries, and possibly as many as 50 deaths. The
burning of Dadjo villages near Goz Amer camp left
approximately 600-700 new IDPs in the region. Residents
described the attackers as familiar to them and being members
of the Ouaddai and Mimi tribes as well as Borno and Dejelba
Arabs.


6. (C) By December 17, the ANT, present in force with tanks
and RPGs, appeared to have the situation under control and
the Minister of Public Security, the Sultan of Goz Beida and
the Governor of Ouaddai were present for negotiations with
arab leaders, including representatives of the Ouaddai and
Mimi. In a meeting with PolOff December 20, the Governor
informed her that the GOC intends to establish a military
base in KouKou-Angarana to provide for enforcement of
whatever accord is reached with Arabs. The Governor was
vague on the GOC's strategy, other than stressing the
necessity for peaceful coexistence, but also stating that the
GOC was prepared to take measures in the event the arab
delegation refused its terms. The Governor did not rule out
the possibility that Sudanese janjaweed had been engaged in
the fighting, but was unequivocal in his conviction that the
Chadian rebels had a hand in the violence. Other sources are
painting a harsher picture of GOC intentions vis a vis the
arab groups, including purging the entire Dar Sila of their
presence.

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Comment
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7. (C) In asserting a strong presence in Dar Sila and Dar
Tama (Mahamat Nour's heartland),President Deby is seeking to
project his power in the region in a more forceful manner
than has previously been seen. This, and other well-honed
"conflict resolution" tactics (negotiations, buy-outs) have
brought a measure of calm to Chad for the time being. But
very few believe that the quiet will be long-lived as Chadian
rebels appear to be gearing up for further attacks in eastern
Chad. In Dar Sila, it remains to be seen whether strong-arm
tactics will succeed where more traditional local diplomacy
has failed. Whatever the result, the impact on Chadian arab
groups will doubtless be felt across the border given the
fluidity of Chadian/Sudanese arab movements.
TAMLYN