CHADIAN OPPOSITION LEADER FLOATS IDEAS FOR DIALOGUE

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 001431

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CD PGOV PHUM PREL SU
SUBJECT: CHADIAN OPPOSITION LEADER FLOATS IDEAS FOR DIALOGUE

REF: A. A) N'DJAMENA 989


B. B) N'DJAMENA 487

C. C) PARIS 5106


1. (SBU) Summary: Southern Muslim opposition leader Saleh
Kebzabo told Ambassador that he is floating ideas with
President Deby, the French and leaders of Chad,s political
and armed opposition for a dialogue that could lead to
comprehensive internal and regional peace. More flexible
than the proposal proffered by the opposition in July, the
approach would not require President Deby to relinquish
executive authority. Kebzabo said that his ideas are
resonating among GOC, rebel and opposition leaders and that
recent Chadian military successes increase the prospect of
President Deby agreeing to meaningful dialogue. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Ambassador met December 13 with southern Muslim
leader, Saleh Kebzabo, Chairman of the opposition National
Union for Development and Renewal (UNDR) and member of the
CPDC (Coordination of the Political Parties for the Defense
of the Constitution),a coalition of some twenty legal
opposition parties that boycotted the May 2006 elections.


3. (SBU) A supporter of Deby during his first term, when he
served as foreign minister (1996-97) and subsequently held
the public works/transportation and then mines/energy/oil
portfolios, Kebzabo is currently an opposition party leader
and member of parliament. He told the ambassador December 13
that he, along with fellow opposition leader Jean Alingue
(URD),is currently floating ideas with Deby, the French and
leaders of the political and armed opposition for an
&approach8 that could achieve comprehensive peace. He
described a proposal that would include bordering countries
and a supervisory role for the EU and/or other credible
international players in a dialogue designed to address both
the internal and regional dynamics of conflict.


4. (SBU) Kebzabo said that were the dialogue to lead to
political transparency and fair legislative elections in
2008, President Deby could complete his third term and in
fact run for a fourth term as long as the playing field was
leveled.


5. (SBU) Kebzabo insisted that the initiative was purely his
and Alingue,s )- not a &CPDC thing8 -- and that their
ideas were resonating among the key players they were
cultivating. He argued that Deby would be more likely to
engage in the process if he were more secure in his own
position. In this context, he suggested that if the reported
recent military successes of the Chadian army in the east
proved to put the rebels at bay, Deby might be willing to
engage in meaningful dialogue.


6. (SBU) Comment: Other CPDC members have complained that
President Deby is seeking to divide the opposition by
engaging prominent CPDC members individually. Kebzabo,s
thinking certainly appears to be more flexible with regard to
President Deby,s role in a peaceful transition than the
approach proffered by the CPDC last July (Ref. A),which
called as conditions for dialogue a significant reduction of
executive authority and explicit presidential acknowledgment
of a crisis requiring wide-ranging political, economic and
social reform. Kebzabo is ahead of his colleagues in the
political opposition in his efforts at exploring a path to
democratic reform. The problem now is that, with violent
combat still raging in eastern Chad, neither President Deby
nor his armed opponents appear open to this initiative.
WALL