Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NDJAMENA1380
2006-11-30 10:10:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Ndjamena
how-toVZCZCXRO4578 RR RUEHTRO DE RUEHNJ #1380/01 3341010 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 301010Z NOV 06 ZUI NDJAMENA 1380 BLANK ALL MCNS SEC/01 AND 02 FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4631 INFO RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1321 RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 0430 RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0872 RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0359 RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0943 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1601 RUEHNM/AMEMBASSY NIAMEY 2866 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2039 RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 0361 RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 1419 RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0924
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001380
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CD
SUBJECT: CHADIAN ELECTIONS IN 2007
NDJAMENA 00001380 001.2 OF 002
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001380
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CD
SUBJECT: CHADIAN ELECTIONS IN 2007
NDJAMENA 00001380 001.2 OF 002
1. (SBU) Summary. The Chadian government estimates that the 2006 com
================
The Election Request
================
2. (U) In a letter dated October 5, 2006, Chadian Prime Minister Pasc
3. (U) Separate studies funded by the UNDP and the EU concluded that
--a population census (the last one dates from the early 90s) to which
--a complete reworking of the electoral lists (voter registration);
--new voter identification procedures;
--redistricting;
--revamping of the electoral code;
--a permanent, trained, and truly Independent National Election Commiss
--comprehensive training for election officials down to the precinct le
--comprehensive and fair voter education.
The PM's request includes some, but not all, of these items.
4. (U) CENI is currently reconstituted for each election on an ad hoc
5. (U) There are also competing proposals for reform of the election
===============
The Donor Response
===============
6. (U) The European Union, including the bilateral French and German
7. (SBU) In a November 3 meeting with the US, German, and French emba
8. (U) In a letter dated November 3 to the EU, the Prime Minister acc
===============
The Chadian Players
===============
9. (U) President Deby's Patriotic Salvation Movement controls 123 of
THE PATRIOTIC SALVATION MOVEMENT (MPS)
-------------- --------------
10. (SBU) The MPS assures Deby's dominance of the legislative branch
11. (U) With backing from Libya and Sudan, President Deby founded the
12. (SBU) Virtually all observers agree that President Deby and his M
--Warriors. This group stems from the ancient and pragmatic tradition
--Semi-activists. This is the second-level power structure, the secret
--Techno-bureaucrats. These are the militants who hold the patronage j
In essence, the MPS has no interest in free, fair, and transparent elec
THE OPPOSITION
--------------
13. (U) Chad's 36 opposition parties have two things in common: a pr
14. (U) Many of the political opposition parties are regionally or et
15. (U) The opposition can be separated into two groups: Those who c
--The joiners. Five parties split the 26 opposition seats with ten goi
--The boycotters. The Coordination of Political Parties for Defense of
NDJAMENA 00001380 002.3 OF 002
OPPOSITION PARTICIPATION IN THE 2007 ELECTIONS?
-------------- --------------
16. (SBU) At least some of the opposition party leaders, however, mig
17. (SBU) Other parties indicated openness to participation but attac
THE PRESIDENT
--------------
18. (U) President Deby is the locus of politics in Chad and the "bete
19. (U) According to observers, President Deby views himself as a des
===========
The Probability
===========
20. (U) Despite the best efforts of the international donor community
21. (U) President Deby has no interest in permitting a legislative bo
22. (U) Exacerbating electoral credibility are the security situation
23. (U) Given the current power structure's incentives to retain powe
===========
The Possibility
===========
24. (U) Nonetheless, there is a possibility. The Chadian government
25. (U) Settling the framework and finances for the NA election gives
26. (U) Although prospects for a free, fair, and transparent vote nex
27. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CD
SUBJECT: CHADIAN ELECTIONS IN 2007
NDJAMENA 00001380 001.2 OF 002
1. (SBU) Summary. The Chadian government estimates that the 2006 com
================
The Election Request
================
2. (U) In a letter dated October 5, 2006, Chadian Prime Minister Pasc
3. (U) Separate studies funded by the UNDP and the EU concluded that
--a population census (the last one dates from the early 90s) to which
--a complete reworking of the electoral lists (voter registration);
--new voter identification procedures;
--redistricting;
--revamping of the electoral code;
--a permanent, trained, and truly Independent National Election Commiss
--comprehensive training for election officials down to the precinct le
--comprehensive and fair voter education.
The PM's request includes some, but not all, of these items.
4. (U) CENI is currently reconstituted for each election on an ad hoc
5. (U) There are also competing proposals for reform of the election
===============
The Donor Response
===============
6. (U) The European Union, including the bilateral French and German
7. (SBU) In a November 3 meeting with the US, German, and French emba
8. (U) In a letter dated November 3 to the EU, the Prime Minister acc
===============
The Chadian Players
===============
9. (U) President Deby's Patriotic Salvation Movement controls 123 of
THE PATRIOTIC SALVATION MOVEMENT (MPS)
-------------- --------------
10. (SBU) The MPS assures Deby's dominance of the legislative branch
11. (U) With backing from Libya and Sudan, President Deby founded the
12. (SBU) Virtually all observers agree that President Deby and his M
--Warriors. This group stems from the ancient and pragmatic tradition
--Semi-activists. This is the second-level power structure, the secret
--Techno-bureaucrats. These are the militants who hold the patronage j
In essence, the MPS has no interest in free, fair, and transparent elec
THE OPPOSITION
--------------
13. (U) Chad's 36 opposition parties have two things in common: a pr
14. (U) Many of the political opposition parties are regionally or et
15. (U) The opposition can be separated into two groups: Those who c
--The joiners. Five parties split the 26 opposition seats with ten goi
--The boycotters. The Coordination of Political Parties for Defense of
NDJAMENA 00001380 002.3 OF 002
OPPOSITION PARTICIPATION IN THE 2007 ELECTIONS?
-------------- --------------
16. (SBU) At least some of the opposition party leaders, however, mig
17. (SBU) Other parties indicated openness to participation but attac
THE PRESIDENT
--------------
18. (U) President Deby is the locus of politics in Chad and the "bete
19. (U) According to observers, President Deby views himself as a des
===========
The Probability
===========
20. (U) Despite the best efforts of the international donor community
21. (U) President Deby has no interest in permitting a legislative bo
22. (U) Exacerbating electoral credibility are the security situation
23. (U) Given the current power structure's incentives to retain powe
===========
The Possibility
===========
24. (U) Nonetheless, there is a possibility. The Chadian government
25. (U) Settling the framework and finances for the NA election gives
26. (U) Although prospects for a free, fair, and transparent vote nex
27. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.