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Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NDJAMENA1273
2006-10-26 16:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ndjamena
Cable title:  

CHADIAN REBELS LEAVE--INTACT

Tags:   ASEC  MOPS  PREL  CD 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1303
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHNJ #1273 2991632
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 261632Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4511
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 0337
RUFGNOA/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
						C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 001273 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS, USEUCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2016
TAGS: ASEC MOPS PREL CD
SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS LEAVE--INTACT

REF: A) N'DJAMENA 1259 B) N'DJAMENA 1268

Classified By: PolOff John O'Leary. Reasons 1.5 (b) & (d)



1. (U) Rebel forces continue their withdrawal, so far
eluding any attempt by the Chadian National Army (ANT) to
intercept them. Reports indicate that this morning they were
only 90 KM from the Central African Republic and were heading
toward CAR rather than directly back to Sudan, thus avoiding
the ANT blocking force in the vicinity of Goz Beida (1213 N;
2125 E). There is speculation that they may try to establish
a base of operations in northeastern CAR, but they could also
move into Darfur.



2. (C) French sources put the rebel column at 50 to 60
vehicles with 400 to 600 troops, sufficient to raid but not
to attack and hold heavily defended towns such as Mongo (1211
N; 1842 E) or N,Djamena.



3. (C) Arrayed against the rebel column was a Chadian army
of 10 to 15 thousand men with air support and French air
reconnaissance. A DAO source stated that pursuing ANT forces
had been ordered to attack and destroy--with impunity--any
rebel force they encountered. The Chadian government has
reoccupied all towns that had fallen to the rebels. The 1st
PSI battalion has redeployed back to the vicinity of
N,Djamena.



4. (SBU) N,Djamena has returned to normal with pedestrians
and bicycles jockeying for road space with cars and mopeds,
street vendors reoccupying their stalls, and workers going
back to their jobs. Tanks and APCs are gone, though a heavy
military presence remains. The Embassy is lifting
restrictions on nighttime activities, but reminding personnel
and family members to be alert. According to the UN Security
Officer, the UN has authorized their families that wish to do
so to leave; and expatriate workers in the East are being
encouraged to take leave. The UN has not mandated departure
of any employees or family members.



5. (C) Radio France International and local sources
indicate that the GOC has arrested military officers from the
Goran and Arab ethnic groups, presumably for assisting the
rebels. This has not been confirmed but could tie into
reports of arrests and summary executions previously reported
by DAO following the ANT defeat at Hadjer Mufane last month.
There is an unconfirmed report that an ANT colonel in Mongo
defected to the rebels.



6. (C) It appears that weapons distributed yesterday by the
government went to members of President Deby,s Zaghawa
tribe, possibly to engage in a last ditch defense of the
regime, but more likely to defend against or forestall
retribution from non-Zaghawas in the event of regime change.
Observers are concerned that these weapons will either be
stolen or sold--in any case, that they will fall into the
hands of evildoers and trigger an upsurge in violent criminal
activity.



7. (C) Comment. Despite the government,s apparent
victory, the fact remains that a large column of rebels
penetrated into the heart of Chad and is leaving unscathed.
Whether this demonstration will encourage other rebel groups
to try a similar advance, or will even encourage the
disparate rebel groups to cooperate, remains to be seen. The
ANT,s response to the rebel incursion was to fortify towns
along the possible invasion route, using significant number
of troops and materiel. Whether the rebels can exploit such
a Maginot mentality also remains to be seen. What appears
certain, however, is that the ANT lacks sufficient mobility
to run down its enemy. End comment.



8. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
WALL