CHAD OPPOSITION SEEKS INTERVENTION IN WAKE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001178

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA
WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF KDEM CD
SUBJECT: CHAD OPPOSITION SEEKS INTERVENTION IN WAKE OF
FIGHTING

REF: NDJAMENA 1166

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Classified By: POL John O'Leary. Reason 1.5 (d)


1. (C) Summary. In the wake of reported heavy fighting in
eastern Chad, opposition leaders called on the Ambassador to
urge the international community to impose a cease-fire and
force President Deby to hold a national dialogue which
included the rebel factions. The Ambassador assured them of
U.S. support for meaningful dialogue and for electoral
reform, but noted that neither we nor the international
community can force Deby into talks he does not want to have.
End summary.


2. (U) The umbrella opposition group Coordination of
Political Parties for Defense of the Constitution (CPDC)
called Tuesday morning (9/26) and requested an urgent meeting
with the Ambassador. Four opposition leaders attended:
Salibou Garba, Ibeni Oumar Mahamat Saleh, Lol Mahamat Choua,
and Abdelkader Walad Kamouge.


3. (C) The CPDC leaders told the Ambassador that the
security situation was "grave" in Chad. According to them,
President Deby had incurred a major defeat in the East, and
there were many dead and wounded. The national army is
suffering from desertions and low morale. The rebel groups
are only waiting for the roads to dry as the rainy season
ends before driving on the eastern provincial capital of
Abeche. The CPDC leaders asserted that the Chadian people
are aware of Deby,s reverses and that they, too, want a
dialogue to peacefully end the eastern conflict.
Nonetheless, Deby is refusing to recognize that Chad is on
the verge of civil war.


4. (C) The opposition leaders declared that French support
for Deby could not resolve the underlying issues that divide
Chadians, which they see as Deby's refusal to permit
participative and transparent government. French policy,
they claim, is based on a personal relationship with Deby,
preventing the French from comprehending the extent of the
current security crisis.


5. (C) The CPDC insisted that only an all-inclusive
national dialogue can save Chad from chaos. Dialogue must
include the rebel factions, even if Deby is opposed to their
participation. While not in contact with the rebels, the
opposition leaders asserted, they believed that the rebel
factions were also open to dialogue. The CPDC urged the
international community to impose a cease-fire in the East
and force Deby to participate in meaningful dialogue under
the aegis of an imposed third-party facilitator.


6. (C) The Ambassador assured the CPDC leadership that we
are following the situation in the East closely. He noted
that Deby had faced and defeated previous rebellions and that
the Chadian president apparently did not share their
conviction that he had suffered a major defeat. Moreover,
the rebels want Deby out; but Deby doesn,t want to go. In
any case, Deby does not accept counsel from the international
community and is not prepared for a meaningful dialogue.
Consequently, we are not in a position to impose solutions on
Chad.


7. (C) The Ambassador reminded the CPDC leaders that we
have pushed hard for electoral reform and transparent
government, most recently during Deputy Assistant Secretary
of State Yamamoto,s call on Prime Minister Pascal
Yoadimnadji. We proposed to assist the reform process, in
conjunction with our international partners, in anticipation
of the legislative elections in 2007.


8. (U) The leaders responded that the Prime Minister had no
power and was incapable of imposing reform. They continued
to assert that free and fair elections could only flow from
an all-inclusive, substantive, national dialogue. They were
skeptical that meaningful elections could ever occur under
President Deby.


9. (U) The Ambassador stressed to the CPDC leaders that we
share their desire for true national dialogue and would
continue to follow the events in the East closely. We would
continue to consult with our international partners; but we
do not have a magic wand with which to heal Chad,s many
wounds.


10. (C) Comment. The meeting took place in the context of
reports from the East that after enduring heavy casualties
the national army, under President Deby,s direct command,

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had failed to dislodge rebels from their positions along the
Sudan border, in the area of Hadjer Marfaine. The essence of
these reports is beginning to seep into the public domain
where they could shake the people,s confidence in President
Deby,s ability to prevail. End comment.


11. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
WALL