CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR NEW SUDANESE REFUGEES

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 001153

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, D, DRL, PRM; LONDON AND PARIS FOR
AFRICAWATCHERS; GENEVA FOR CAMPBELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREF ASEC CD SU
SUBJECT: CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR NEW SUDANESE REFUGEES
INTO CHAD

REF: STATE 144652

Classified By: ECONOMIC/CONSULAR OFFICER JITU SARDAR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B
) and (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: UNHCR is concerned that it will be unable
to handle a massive influx of Sudanese refugees into Eastern
Chad. The lack of viable camp sites (with adequate access,
water sources, and assurances of security),along with
UNHCR's own resource constraints, will hinder the
organization's ability to sustain humanitarian operations.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In response to reftel, Embassy N'Djamena met with
representatives of the U.N. High Commission of Refugees,
various international partner organizations, and GOC
officials, to discuss the current contingency planning for a
possible influx of Sudanese refugees who may be fleeing
renewed violence in Darfur.

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LACK OF VIABLE CAMPS
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3. (C) UNHCR's Country Director Serge Male told
Economic/Consular officer on September 8 that UNHCR is
currently planning for the possibility of refugee flows
ranging from 50,000 to 70,000 refugees into Chad should the
violence in Darfur escalate. According to him, while UNHCR
and partner organizations could mobilize their resources for
a short-term effort, the long-term sustainability of the
operations was a question mark. Male pointed out that UNHCR
would be hard-pressed to find adequate camp sites that
satisfied UNHCR's basic criteria for viability: 1) adequate
sources of water 2) sufficient access to the camp 3) capacity
for security 4) ethnic compatibility with the host
population.


4. (SBU) Currently, UNHCR was having difficulty finding
adequate water sources in eastern Chad, as most of the water
in the region was mixed with clay. Any increase in refugees
would mean an increased need for water, which UNHCR would be
unable to provide in the long-run. At the same time, those
sites that had adequate water sources were difficult to
access by ground transportation. Finally, assuming renewed
fighting affects security along the Chad-Sudan border, any
new sites would have to be developed further west and away
from the border, significantly increasing the potential for
ethnic strife between the refugee and local populations.

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REFUGEE PROCESSING
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5. (SBU) Male pointed out that a well-established system was
already in place to handle the processing and registration of
new refugees. However, a new influx would undoubtedly test
the existing structures. After all, more refugees would
require more humanitarian workers to handle the processing,
registration, and distribution of materials to the refugee
population. This would be particularly true in the Oure
Cassoni camps in Bahai, which already had a limited staff.


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INSECURITY WILL AFFECT ASSISTANCE EFFORTS
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6. (C) Male also said that should the security situation
deteriorate in Eastern Chad, humanitarian operations would be
severely impacted. The possibilities for fighting between
Chadian rebels and GOC forces, or a spillover of fighting in
the east from the recent offensives by the Sudanese Armed
Forces, would put the safety of humanitarian workers and the
refugee population at risk. While UNHCR was committed to
assistance efforts for any influx of Sudanese refugees, if
the security of the humanitarian population was not ensured,
UNHCR could not justify continuing refugee operations in
Eastern Chad.

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QUESTION OF FOOD SUPPLIES
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7. (SBU) World Food Program representative Felix Bamezon
told Ambassador Wall on September 18 that the organization
was also making contingency plans to prepare for a refugee
influx. WFP field officers in camps in eastern Chad were
examining current food stock levels, storage capabilities in
new refugee camps, and vehicles and communications equipment
for staff and distribution partners. Bamezon said that while
WFP was not sure of the exact needs for the organization, it
would convey its findings to Geneva to ensure that adequate
resources could be obtained to cope with the influx. This
would possibly involve borrowing from the existing working
capital fund in anticipation that future donor assistance
would be forthcoming.

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GOC'S OWN CAPACITY FOR REFUGEE PROTECTION
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8. (C) In meetings with DAS Yamamato and Ambassador Wall,
Prime Minister Yaodminadji and Foreign Minister Allam-mi have
stated that UNHCR would receive an adequate number of
gendarmes for protection of the refugee camps. However,
UNHCR continue to highlight the GOC's inability to commit
gendarmes that they agreed to provide based on the Memorandum
of Understanding between the Government and UNHCR. They also
note that should fighting continue in the East, the number of
gendarmes given to UNHCR will be less, as the GOC will most
likely use those military assets for defense of the eastern
front.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Contingency planning for UNHCR and partner
organizations is currently at a very nascent stage, primarily
because the humanitarian organizations are not aware of the
numbers to expect, and what resources are actually needed to
handle the influx. The specifics on the needs should be
clearer in the coming weeks. What is obvious, on a general
level, is even with more resources, the logistical planning
for a refugee influx will be an extremely difficult task.


10. (U) Tripoli Minimize Considered.
WALL