SIGNS OF INSECURITY IN EASTERN CHAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001127

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF, D, DRL, PRM; LONDON AND PARIS FOR
AFRICAWATCHERS; GENEVA FOR CAMPBELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREF ASEC CD SU
SUBJECT: SIGNS OF INSECURITY IN EASTERN CHAD

Classified By: ECONOMIC/CONSULAR OFFICER JITU SARDAR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B
) and (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Clashes between Chadian government forces
amd rebel groups have occured in eastern Chad, following two
days of a visible military buildup by the Chadian National
Army and the movements of rebel groups inside eastern Chad.
There are also signs of possible infiltration by Darfur Peace
Agreement (DPA) non-signatories in the refugee camps.
Humanitarian organizations are expressing concerns that an
escalation in fighting will have significant consequences on
their operations. END SUMMARY.

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CLASHES BETWEEN GOC, REBEL FORCES
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2. (C) On September 11, fighting occured between the Chadian
National Army and Chadian rebel groups in the area of Aram
Kolle, located 40 miles east of the eastern Chadian town of
Biltine. Reuters correspondent Pascal Fletcher reported to
Embassy officers the same day that Abdoulaye Abdelkarim,
spokesman for the Chadian rebel group United Force for Chad
and brother of Chadian rebel leader Mahamat Nour, told
Flectcher that close to 2,600 rebel fighters were currently
in eastern Chad, and were moving around the Chadian town of
Guereda. He asserted to Fletcher that the eventual objective
was "to make progress towards N'Djamena." Abdelkarim added
that forces were also close to the border town of Adre, and
that a number of GOC troops were deserting to join the rebel
cause. Fletcher also noted that Chadian military contacts
claimed that the GOC was in control of the situation, and
would be able to counter the rebel threat. Also on September
11, UNHCR Abeche Field Security Officer Christophe Ky
confirmed the attacks near Biltine, but could not confirm
that over 2,000 Chadian rebels were in the East. He added
that for the moment, UNHCR had not evacuated any of its staff
in refugees camps located near Guereda, Adre, and Biltine.

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INCREASED MILITARY ACTIVITY IN THE EAST
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3. (C) Prior to the clashes on September 11, humanitarian
organizations and Embassy contacts have reported increased
military activity in eastern Chad. UNHCR and International
Medical Corps (IMC) told the Embassy on September 7 that
local eyewitnesses noted the movement of 500 to 700 Chadian
rebel fighters on camel and horseback near the eastern town
of Guereda. IMC also said that they observed the movement of
Chadian military troops around Guereda to reinforce the
military battallion already present in the area. According
to them, the military was conducting live-fire exercises that
resulted in local Chadian casualties. UNHCR also reported
that while the Chadian military has not actively engaged the
Chadian rebels that were seen near Guereda, other sporadic
clashes had taken place in the area that resulted in
casualties. They also said that GOC officials have refused
to admit the presence of Chadian rebel activity, claiming
that the heightened military presence was normal military
activity.


4. (C) Contacts have told Embassy officers that the GOC has
also increased its military activity in N'Djamena and Abeche.
They point to the increased number of military flights to
Abeche that have been carrying arms, munitions and vehicles,
and the movement of soldiers and military vehicles towards
the border region. Contacts have also alluded to arms
shipments that have been coming to N'Djamena from the
Ukraine, Nigeria and South Africa, which have proceeded
directly to the Presidential palace. They point out that the
concerns of the GOC with the advent of this latest rebel push
are highlighted by President Deby's earlier-than-anticipated
return from his trip to Paris. French Ambassador Jean-
Pierre Bercot has noted to us that the visit went extremely
well, but that these developments on the Chad-Sudan border
could be "catastrophic" for stability in the region.

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POSSIBLE "LAST STAND" OF CHADIAN REBEL MOVEMENT
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5. (C) According to Embassy contacts who are believed to
have ties to the Chadian rebel movement, rebel groups are now
beginning a final push against the Deby regime. (NOTE: this
closely ressembles information provided to the Embassy by

NDJAMENA 00001127 002 OF 002


representatives from Sudanese rebel movements who were
previously residing in N'Djamena. END NOTE). Ths new
offensive follows a meeting in Khartoum amng Sudanese
authorities and leaders of the various Chadian rebel
movements in late August, in whic Sudanese officials are
supposed to have noted Sdan's intention to adhere to its
commitments in he July 26 agreement with the Chadian
governmentand refuse sanctuary and suppor to Chadian
rebels. However, these contacts note that the Sudanese
authorities told the rebel leaders that before cutting off
their support, the GOS would provide munitions and vehicles
for a final push to remove Deby from power, and called on the
rebel groups to organize themselves for a final attack
against Chadian forces.


6. (C) As of this moment, according to these contacts, three
groups had crossed the border: Mahamat Nour's Rassemblement
pour la Force de Democratie (RDL) were entering through
Guereda on camel and horseback; troops loyal to former
Chadian Minister of Defense Mahamat Nouri were entering
through the north and traveling to the northern region of
Ennedi; and Chadian arabs were entering from the southern
part of the Chad-Sudan border, and were considering passing
through the Central African Republic. It is unclear to us to
what extent these movements are coordinated or independent in
nature, but contacts note that close to 2,000 Chadian rebels
are waiting along the Chad-Sudan border, poised to cross over
at the instructions of their commanders.

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DPA NON-SIGNATORIES IN CHAD
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7. (C) Humanitarian organizations state that they are also
quite concerned by the inflow of Sudanese rebels into Chad to
recruit fighters from refugee camps to counter the Sudanese
government's offensive in Western Darfur. IMC told the
Embassy that refugee camps around the Chadian town of Iriba
were being inflitrated by DPA non-signatories who were
planning to recruit fighters for the Sudanese rebels' efforts
in Darfur. U.S. military observers with AMIS have reported
to us in Abeche that military equipment and vehicles continue
to flow into Sudan from Chad. As previous reporting from
Embassy N'Djamena has indicated, it is, of course, unclear if
this support is sanctioned by the GOC.

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CONCERNS OF HUMANITARIAN ORGANIZATIONS
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8. (C) In response to the new indications of insecurity in
eastern Chad, UNHCR has begun discussing contingency planning
to evacuate staff and protect refugees in the event of
increased violence along the Chad-Sudan border. UNHCR
Director Serge Male has told the Embassy that UNHCR is
extremely concerned that renewed fighting between Chadian
rebels and the GOC could restrict humanitarian operations in
the region. As he notes, violence could cause UNHCR and
partner organizations to reduce operations to a skeleton
staff (similar to UNHCR's decisions to reduce staff numbers
prior to the April 13 attacks),or even stop humanitarian
operations altogether should the situation deteriorate
completely. Male has pointed out that UNHCR will continue to
monitor the situation along the border to determine its next
steps to try to ensure the safety of the humanitarian workers
and refugees.


9. (U) Tripoli Minimize Considered.
WALL