Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NDJAMENA1057
2006-08-15 10:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ndjamena
Cable title:
ANOTHER FIVE YEARS FOR CHAD'S PRESIDENT DEBY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 001057
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2010
TAGS: EFIN KDEM PGOV PHUM PREF PREL CD
SUBJECT: ANOTHER FIVE YEARS FOR CHAD'S PRESIDENT DEBY
Classified By: Ambassador Marc Wall for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 001057
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2010
TAGS: EFIN KDEM PGOV PHUM PREF PREL CD
SUBJECT: ANOTHER FIVE YEARS FOR CHAD'S PRESIDENT DEBY
Classified By: Ambassador Marc Wall for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: On August 8, after nearly sixteen years in
power, President Deby rolled out the red carpet for himself
and ten visiting African heads of state in a celebration to
honor his claim to five more. The ceremony was marked by
public displays of Chad's new rapprochement with Sudan and of
the arrival of China as Chad's new diplomatic partner. The
inauguration caps a series of bold moves by Deby to make
peace with his adversaries at home and abroad. He has earned
a respite from the fights that have threatened to undo his
regime, but the pressures on him will not abate indefinitely.
Chances for a durable peace inside Chad and on its borders
depend on initiatives to demonstrate his seriousness about
reconciling with his opponents and implementing reforms. END
SUMMARY
--------------
Deby Throws a Bash
--------------
2. (SBU) President Idriss Deby Itno threw himself a lavish
party August 8 to celebrate his inauguration for a third
five-year term in power. The heads of state of Gabon,
Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Central African Republic, Mali,
Togo, Equatorial Guinea, and Mauritania showed up, but the
star guests were Libya's Mouammar Qadhafi and Sudan's Omar
Bashir. None of the dignitaries is likely to have
appreciated the irony of driving from the airport on a
Taiwan-built road, staying in a Libyan-built hotel, and
attending the ceremonies in the Chinese-built conference hall
that had been the target of the rebel attack on April 13.
President Deby gave a conciliatory speech, followed by a
21-gun salute. But the highlight of the event came when, at
Qadhafi's prompting, Bashir joined him on the stage to
congratulate Deby in a three-way embrace. The other
crowd-pleaser was the arrival of the PRC delegation, just two
days after establishment of diplomatic relations. The group
had already found their seats when the head of the delegation
was called backstage with the other special envoys. When it
came his turn to be announced and he strode back into the
auditorium, he was greeted with a rousing ovation.
3. (SBU) Immediately after the ceremonies, Deby, Bashir,
and Qadhafi joined Gabon's Omar Bongo and Congo-Brazzaville's
and African Union President Denis Sassou Nguesso in the
garden of their hotel in a meeting to declare peace between
Chad and Sudan. The two countries will reestablish
diplomatic relations and open their borders, while their
foreign ministers work out the details. Evidently in a
gesture to make up to Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade for
permitting Qadhafi to steal the show at the inauguration and
not including him in the garden party that followed, Deby
sent his prime minister and foreign minister to Dakar the
next day for talks about a future summit meeting.
--------------
Deby's Comeback
--------------
4. (SBU) The ceremony caps a remarkable comeback for the
beleaguered president. Only last March Deby was facing
mutinies, desertions, and rebel incursions on virtually a
weekly basis. Blaming it all on Khartoum-backed mercenaries,
he severed diplomatic relations with Sudan. At the same
NDJAMENA 00001057 002 OF 003
time, he was shunned by his political opposition, locked in a
bitter feud with the World Bank, and threatening to expel
Sudanese refugees and shut down oil production. His fortunes
changed dramatically in the coming weeks. By early May, he
had beaten back a rebel assault on N'Djamena, reached a truce
with the World Bank, pulled off a flawed presidential
election, and learned of the signing of the Darfur Peace
Agreement that promised to stabilize his volatile eastern
border with Sudan.
5. (SBU) In recent weeks, Deby not only reached the
rapprochement with Khartoum, but also consolidated gains in
other areas. With the agreement negotiated with the World
Bank July 14 and the visit by President Paul Wolfowitz July
20, he committed to implementing budgetary reforms and
spending the bulk of all oil revenues to help reduce poverty,
in exchange for the immediate release of over $130 million in
oil royalty payments held in the blocked account and a
resumption in the World Bank's lending program. In another
move to defuse pressure on his eastern front, he abruptly
acted to reestablish relations with the PRC, presumably in
hopes of working toward an understanding with Beijing on arms
transfers to Chadian rebels or support for Chad's cause in
the United Nations. And bowing to appeals for launching a
national political dialogue, he staged a highly scripted
conference that his credible political opposition boycotted,
but that nevertheless came out with a few useful proposals to
fix the legislative and municipal elections next year.
--------------
Uncertain Prospects
--------------
6. (C) Only in his overtures to the armed rebels have
Deby's efforts not had any apparent results. His foreign
minister and other envoys seem to have come back empty handed
from their efforts in Paris to establish contacts with
representatives of the rebellion. But Deby's luck is holding
even here. The Chadian rebel forces remain in disarray,
hating each other almost as much as they hate Deby himself.
The onset of the rainy season has stopped virtually all
vehicle movements on Chad's southern and southeastern
borders. The start of Ramadan in late September will put a
damper on any rebel maneuvers even as the terrain begins to
dry out. By next March, when Esso's tax payments begin to
gush into Chad's treasury, Deby will have more than enough
resources left over from his agreement with the World Bank to
pay off his enemies and military suppliers.
7. (C) The revival in Deby's fortunes does not mean he can
look forward to a trouble-free five more years in power. A
more likely scenario involves incursions and rebel attacks
starting up again later this year, the ever-present threat of
palace coups, and half-hearted and unreciprocated gestures
aimed at reconciling with his political opponents. Based on
his track record, he will survive, but remain vulnerable and
besieged. The unremitting pressures on him will not put him
in a mindset to support the political opening necessary to
reconcile with his opponents and ensure a durable peace on
his borders. Indeed, flush with oil money, bolstered by a
new relationship with the Chinese, and soon without President
Chirac, the only Western leader he listens to, in a position
to counsel him, Deby may be tempted to go his separate way.
8. (C) On the other hand, in the aftermath of the
inauguration and the victories leading up to it, Deby may be
NDJAMENA 00001057 003 OF 003
ready to choose another course. He may determine that this
respite can be used as an opening to pursue a program of
reconciliation and reform. After sixteen years in power, it
will not be easy for him to persuade his opponents that his
next five years will be much different. To be convincing, he
needs to take the initiative now by appointing a new
government with powers to implement reforms, revamping the
electoral system before the legislative elections next year,
and committing to a plan for stepping down in five years. We
should continue to encourage him to move in this direction.
WALL
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2010
TAGS: EFIN KDEM PGOV PHUM PREF PREL CD
SUBJECT: ANOTHER FIVE YEARS FOR CHAD'S PRESIDENT DEBY
Classified By: Ambassador Marc Wall for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: On August 8, after nearly sixteen years in
power, President Deby rolled out the red carpet for himself
and ten visiting African heads of state in a celebration to
honor his claim to five more. The ceremony was marked by
public displays of Chad's new rapprochement with Sudan and of
the arrival of China as Chad's new diplomatic partner. The
inauguration caps a series of bold moves by Deby to make
peace with his adversaries at home and abroad. He has earned
a respite from the fights that have threatened to undo his
regime, but the pressures on him will not abate indefinitely.
Chances for a durable peace inside Chad and on its borders
depend on initiatives to demonstrate his seriousness about
reconciling with his opponents and implementing reforms. END
SUMMARY
--------------
Deby Throws a Bash
--------------
2. (SBU) President Idriss Deby Itno threw himself a lavish
party August 8 to celebrate his inauguration for a third
five-year term in power. The heads of state of Gabon,
Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Central African Republic, Mali,
Togo, Equatorial Guinea, and Mauritania showed up, but the
star guests were Libya's Mouammar Qadhafi and Sudan's Omar
Bashir. None of the dignitaries is likely to have
appreciated the irony of driving from the airport on a
Taiwan-built road, staying in a Libyan-built hotel, and
attending the ceremonies in the Chinese-built conference hall
that had been the target of the rebel attack on April 13.
President Deby gave a conciliatory speech, followed by a
21-gun salute. But the highlight of the event came when, at
Qadhafi's prompting, Bashir joined him on the stage to
congratulate Deby in a three-way embrace. The other
crowd-pleaser was the arrival of the PRC delegation, just two
days after establishment of diplomatic relations. The group
had already found their seats when the head of the delegation
was called backstage with the other special envoys. When it
came his turn to be announced and he strode back into the
auditorium, he was greeted with a rousing ovation.
3. (SBU) Immediately after the ceremonies, Deby, Bashir,
and Qadhafi joined Gabon's Omar Bongo and Congo-Brazzaville's
and African Union President Denis Sassou Nguesso in the
garden of their hotel in a meeting to declare peace between
Chad and Sudan. The two countries will reestablish
diplomatic relations and open their borders, while their
foreign ministers work out the details. Evidently in a
gesture to make up to Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade for
permitting Qadhafi to steal the show at the inauguration and
not including him in the garden party that followed, Deby
sent his prime minister and foreign minister to Dakar the
next day for talks about a future summit meeting.
--------------
Deby's Comeback
--------------
4. (SBU) The ceremony caps a remarkable comeback for the
beleaguered president. Only last March Deby was facing
mutinies, desertions, and rebel incursions on virtually a
weekly basis. Blaming it all on Khartoum-backed mercenaries,
he severed diplomatic relations with Sudan. At the same
NDJAMENA 00001057 002 OF 003
time, he was shunned by his political opposition, locked in a
bitter feud with the World Bank, and threatening to expel
Sudanese refugees and shut down oil production. His fortunes
changed dramatically in the coming weeks. By early May, he
had beaten back a rebel assault on N'Djamena, reached a truce
with the World Bank, pulled off a flawed presidential
election, and learned of the signing of the Darfur Peace
Agreement that promised to stabilize his volatile eastern
border with Sudan.
5. (SBU) In recent weeks, Deby not only reached the
rapprochement with Khartoum, but also consolidated gains in
other areas. With the agreement negotiated with the World
Bank July 14 and the visit by President Paul Wolfowitz July
20, he committed to implementing budgetary reforms and
spending the bulk of all oil revenues to help reduce poverty,
in exchange for the immediate release of over $130 million in
oil royalty payments held in the blocked account and a
resumption in the World Bank's lending program. In another
move to defuse pressure on his eastern front, he abruptly
acted to reestablish relations with the PRC, presumably in
hopes of working toward an understanding with Beijing on arms
transfers to Chadian rebels or support for Chad's cause in
the United Nations. And bowing to appeals for launching a
national political dialogue, he staged a highly scripted
conference that his credible political opposition boycotted,
but that nevertheless came out with a few useful proposals to
fix the legislative and municipal elections next year.
--------------
Uncertain Prospects
--------------
6. (C) Only in his overtures to the armed rebels have
Deby's efforts not had any apparent results. His foreign
minister and other envoys seem to have come back empty handed
from their efforts in Paris to establish contacts with
representatives of the rebellion. But Deby's luck is holding
even here. The Chadian rebel forces remain in disarray,
hating each other almost as much as they hate Deby himself.
The onset of the rainy season has stopped virtually all
vehicle movements on Chad's southern and southeastern
borders. The start of Ramadan in late September will put a
damper on any rebel maneuvers even as the terrain begins to
dry out. By next March, when Esso's tax payments begin to
gush into Chad's treasury, Deby will have more than enough
resources left over from his agreement with the World Bank to
pay off his enemies and military suppliers.
7. (C) The revival in Deby's fortunes does not mean he can
look forward to a trouble-free five more years in power. A
more likely scenario involves incursions and rebel attacks
starting up again later this year, the ever-present threat of
palace coups, and half-hearted and unreciprocated gestures
aimed at reconciling with his political opponents. Based on
his track record, he will survive, but remain vulnerable and
besieged. The unremitting pressures on him will not put him
in a mindset to support the political opening necessary to
reconcile with his opponents and ensure a durable peace on
his borders. Indeed, flush with oil money, bolstered by a
new relationship with the Chinese, and soon without President
Chirac, the only Western leader he listens to, in a position
to counsel him, Deby may be tempted to go his separate way.
8. (C) On the other hand, in the aftermath of the
inauguration and the victories leading up to it, Deby may be
NDJAMENA 00001057 003 OF 003
ready to choose another course. He may determine that this
respite can be used as an opening to pursue a program of
reconciliation and reform. After sixteen years in power, it
will not be easy for him to persuade his opponents that his
next five years will be much different. To be convincing, he
needs to take the initiative now by appointing a new
government with powers to implement reforms, revamping the
electoral system before the legislative elections next year,
and committing to a plan for stepping down in five years. We
should continue to encourage him to move in this direction.
WALL